Immediate focus is now on 1.1408 support in EUR/USD after last week’s decline. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 1.2081 and target 100% projection of 1.2081 to 1.1408 from 1.1848 at 1.1175. On the upside, above 1.1499 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. However, outlook will remain mildly bearish as long as 1.1621 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal after rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0904. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 1.1353, followed by break of 1.1621 resistance, will retain medium term bullishness.
In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
