EUR/USD recovered after edging lower to 1.1111, but upside is capped by 1.1276 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further fall is in favor. Below 1.1111 will extend larger fall from 1.2081 to 1.0904 fibonacci level. However, considering bullish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.1276 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1410).
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.2081 medium term top could be reversing the rise from 1.0176 (2025 low), and probably even that from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.0904 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1710 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, immediate focus is now on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1246). Sustained break there will argue that rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) has completed as a three wave corrective move at 1.2081, after rejection at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level. That will keep the long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact.
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