The short-term Elliott Wave outlook for S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) remains bearish. Price action suggests the index has begun a larger impulsive decline from the October 6, 2026 high. The current structure continues to favor additional downside as the broader five-wave sequence develops.
From the October 6 peak, wave i declined and ended at 7648.50, as shown on the 1-hour chart. The market then staged a corrective recovery in wave ii, which concluded at 7819.50. After completing that correction, sellers regained control and pushed the index lower in wave iii. This decline reached 7558.25 before a countertrend rally emerged. The subsequent bounce in wave iv ended at 7693.75. From there, the index resumed lower in wave v and reached 7546. This move completed wave (i) of a higher degree.
Following the completion of wave (i), the index advanced in wave (ii) through an expanded flat corrective structure. Wave a of the correction ended at 7633.50. The market then reversed lower in wave b, which completed at 7490. Buyers returned afterward and drove prices higher in wave c. This rally reached 7747.04 and completed wave (ii) of the larger sequence. Since finishing wave (ii), the index has turned lower once again in wave (iii). The decline is unfolding as a five-wave impulse at a lesser degree. This development supports the view that the broader downtrend remains in progress.
Looking ahead, wave (iii) appears to be approaching completion. Once it finishes, the index should stage a corrective rebound in wave (iv) to retrace part of the decline from the November 5 peak. After that correction concludes, another leg lower is expected in wave (v). In the near term, the key pivot remains the 7747 high. As long as price stays below this level, rallies are expected to fail in three, seven, or eleven swings. Therefore, the Elliott Wave structure continues to favor further downside before the current bearish sequence reaches completion.
S&P 500 Futures (ES) 60 Minute Elliott Wave Chart
ES Elliott Wave Video
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