Market Overview
Cautious Calm Holds as Israel-Iran Conflict Continues
Tuesday’s Asian and European sessions saw little conviction across even when geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East persisted. The Israel-Iran conflict, now into its fifth day, is generating concern but not yet panic. Oil and gold, typically sensitive to regional instability, remain rangebound, and equities are slightly softer with...
Yen Recovers Slightly After BoJ Hold; Trade Diplomacy Mixed Across G7
Yen recovered modestly after BoJ held interest rates steady at 0.50%, in line with expectations. The decision came with no change to the existing bond taper plan, but with a new framework to gradually reduce bond purchases starting in fiscal 2026. Markets interpreted the move as largely symbolic for...
Geopolitics on Backburner as Investors Eye Trade Negotiations and BoJ Hold
Global financial markets showed remarkable resilience on Monday despite a continuous escalation in Middle East tensions. Iranian missiles struck Israel’s Tel Aviv and Haifa overnight, prompting an immediate warning from Israel’s defence minister that Tehran would soon “pay the price.” Iran has reportedly rejected ceasefire negotiations while under Israeli...
Markets Calm, Geopolitics Linger as Fed, BoJ, BoE, and SNB Loom
Global markets were broadly steady on Monday, despite ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The Nikkei led Asian bourses with a 1.26% while European indexes also opened higher. Even with Israel and Iran continuing to exchange military strikes, investor sentiment remained resilient. US equity futures are also treading water,...
Markets Enter High-Risk Phase as Geopolitical and Trade Risks Collide
Global Financial markets have endured months of turmoil, with overlapping concerns over the US debt downgrade, recession fears, and an intensifying global trade war. The sharp escalation in Middle East conflict last week has only deepened the anxiety, as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes, raising the specter of prolonged...
Geopolitical Escalation Fuels Risk Aversion; Dollar Still Lags Despite Bounce
Risk aversion dominates global markets today as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify, though the broader equity selloff has remained contained so far. The trigger came early Friday when Israel launched a series of airstrikes deep into Iranian territory, targeting key military and nuclear infrastructure. In response, Iran...
Markets Slide as Israel Strikes Iran, Safe Havens Climb
Asia-Pacific equities slumped today after Israel launched a military strike on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and escalating geopolitical tensions in the region. The strike, which came without US support, was followed by a sharp vow of retaliation from Tehran. The immediate reaction saw oil prices spike nearly 9%, as...
Dollar Crushed as Dovish Inflation Data and Trade Tensions Weigh; Euro Surges to Multi-Year High
Dollar accelerated its broad-based selloff in early US trading, plunging to its lowest level against Euro since 2021. The latest catalyst came from softer-than-expected May PPI data, which followed Wednesday’s downside surprise in CPI. The tandem inflation prints have further calmed fears of immediate tariff-driven price pass-through, at least...
Sterling Slides on Poor UK GDP, While Dollar Struggles Under Trade Uncertainty
Sterling came under renewed pressure at the start of European session, triggered by a deeper-than-expected contraction in UK GDP for April. Services sector, the economy’s dominant component, posted its first monthly decline since October. Nine out of 14 services subsectors registered falls, pointing to broad-based weakness. It's a disappointing...
Dollar Drops on CPI Miss; Trade Optimism Offers Limited Support
Dollar fell broadly following weaker-than-expected US inflation report for May, reinforcing the narrative that consumer prices have not yet felt the full brunt of tariff pressures. The data offered some relief that the feared pass-through from tariffs to end consumers hasn’t materialized, at least not yet.
However, it wasn’t enough...
Fragile Trade Progress and CPI Ahead Keep Risk Appetite in Check
Asian equities edged modestly higher on Wednesday, lifted by the announcement that US and Chinese officials reached a “framework” to implement the Geneva trade consensus and advance commitments made in the latest Trump-Xi phone call. While officials from both sides struck an optimistic tone, the agreement remains preliminary, lacking...
Sterling Slumps as UK Jobs Data Fuels August BoE Rate Cut Bets
Sterling is sold off notably today after dismal UK labor market data intensified expectations of a BoE rate cut in August. The most striking element was the -109k drop in payrolled employment—the largest non-pandemic decline since records began in 2014—coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate to its...
Aussie Firmer in Quiet Markets as US-China Trade Talks Continue
Global markets remain in a state of cautious anticipation as high-level trade negotiations between the US and China continue for a second day in London. While there’s no definitive outcome yet, mild optimism lingers. Asian equities reflected that mood, with Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index both...
Markets Hold Breath as US-China Trade Talks Resume
The cautious optimism in Asia failed to spill into European markets, as investors turned cautious ahead of today's US-China trade talks in London. While no one expects a sweeping resolution to the broader trade conflict, hopes are centered on incremental progress—particularly around rare earths.
Kevin Hassett, Director of the US...
Markets Eye US-China Trade Talks for Fresh Catalyst
Asian equity markets opened the week on a positive note, supported by cautious optimism surrounding the high-stakes US-China trade negotiations in London. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, along with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, are meeting Chinese counterparts as efforts to revive dialogue intensify. The...
Job Data and US-China Rapprochement Fuel Dollar Rebound Prospects
Risk sentiment improved last week, driven by the solid US non-farm payroll report that helped ease fears of a deepening slowdown. Adding to the optimism was a thaw in US-China relations. While no concrete breakthrough emerged, the fact that both sides were willing to engage again offered some relief...
Dollar Rebounds as NFP and Wages Beat Forecasts, Tariff Impact Yet to Materialize
Dollar staged a firm comeback today following slightly better-than-expected non-farm payroll figures, with job growth at 139k and wage growth coming in strong at 0.4% mom. While not a blowout report, the data was enough to alleviate immediate concerns of a sharp labor market slowdown. Stock futures also advanced,...
Markets Eye NFP as Trump-Xi Call Fails to Lift Sentiment
There was a fleeting uptick in sentiment overnight after US President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping, calling the conversation “very positive” and announcing renewed lower-level trade talks. However, the initial optimism quickly faded, with major US indexes reversing early gains to end the session...
Euro Firms as ECB Lagarde Stays Confident; Silver Surges on Shift from US Assets
Euro surged against Dollar after ECB President Christine Lagarde struck a relatively confident tone in her post-meeting press conference. She downplayed immediate trade war fallout, stating that U.S. tariffs would likely impact growth more in 2026, by which time EU fiscal expansion—particularly military spending—would help cushion the blow.
Also, Lagarde...
Markets Unshaken by Weak US Data, Await Guidance from ECB
The US markets remain remarkably steady overnight despite a string of soft US economic releases overnight. Disappointing job and services data failed to trigger any meaningful selloff in equities, while Dollar edged slightly lower. Market pricing for Fed policy remains broadly unchanged, with a 96% chance of a hold...