Market Overview
Japan Signals Resolve at 160 Yen; Joint Intervention Talk and BoJ Speculations
Yen is once again attempting to recover from its recent sharp losses, with momentum this time supported by a more forceful policy backdrop. Japanese authorities have stepped up verbal intervention, and crucially, officials have gone beyond routine warnings and have explicitly flagged the possibility of joint action with the...
Dollar Surges, Fed Cut Bets Slide, as Jobless Claims Drop Below Key 200k Mark
Dollar climbed sharply in early US session as markets continued to pare back bets on a Fed rate cut in Q1 2026, a move driven by stronger-than-expected labor market data. Initial jobless claims fell back below the psychological 200k mark, countering dovish concerns about extended labor-market deterioration.
Odds of a...
Markets Breathe Easier After Trump Signals Restraint on Iran
Early market nervousness over a potential escalation in the Middle East eased as investors reassessed the likelihood of near-term US military intervention in Iran. Initial risk-off moves faded quickly, helping stabilize broader sentiment. A key factor was messaging from US President Donald Trump, who signaled that Washington may not...
Japan Steps Up Verbal Intervention, Yen Finds Temporary Breathing Room
Yen recovered broadly today after Japan delivered its strongest verbal intervention in months, temporarily slowing the currency’s slide. The shift in tone came as USD/JPY neared 160, its strongest level since July 2024, prompting officials to push back more forcefully against what they described as excessive moves.
Crucially, the rhetoric...
Takaichi Trade Tests Yen Limits, Powell Backed by Global Central Bankers
“Takaichi trade” remained the dominant theme in markets today. Nikkei added nearly 1.5% on the day, pushing to yet another record high as Japanese driven by expectations that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government will pursue expansionary fiscal policies and pro-growth reforms after the speculated snap election. Yen selloff extended...
Dollar Stalls as CPI Confirms Fed Pause in January
Dollar gyrates in a tight range and remains an underperformer for the week, showing little reaction to December US consumer inflation data. With no meaningful downside surprise in the data, inflation figures effectively cemented expectations for a policy hold by the Fed at its upcoming meeting. Futures now assign...
Yen Rout Extends as Takaichi Trade Takes Hold, Japanese Stocks Fly
Yen came under renewed and intense pressure during Asian session, as domestic equities surged more than 3% to new record highs following the market reopening. The catalyst behind the equity rally — and Yen’s decline — remains growing conviction that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing to call...
Fed Credibility Risk Sends 10-Yr Yield Above 4.2, Euro to Benefit as Dollar Alternative?
With the economic calendar nearly empty, markets are fixated on the escalating political risk surrounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is now under federal criminal investigation linked to the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters and his congressional testimony on the matter. The move has taken markets by surprise, particularly...
Powell–Trump Clash Adds Risk Premium, But Calm Largely Holds for Now
News of a US criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell dominated global financial headlines, injecting a fresh dose of political risk into markets. While the investigation itself was unsettling, the sharper jolt came from Powell’s unusually direct response, which framed the episode as part of a broader campaign...
Geopolitics Everywhere, Panic Nowhere in Resilient Global Markets
The first full week of 2026 delivered a barrage of geopolitical shocks that would normally be expected to rattle global markets. Instead, investors largely looked through the noise, producing a market outcome that appears counterintuitive at first glance.
The most dramatic development came from Latin America, where the US carried...
Dollar Eases Slightly as NFP Fails to Deliver Upside Surprise
Dollar softened modestly in early US trading after the release of mixed December labor market data. The headline payroll gain undershot expectations, but the miss did little to challenge the broader narrative of a labor market that is slowing gradually rather than deteriorating abruptly.
More importantly, for monetary policy, the...
Dollar Leads into NFP as USD/JPY Nears Breakout
Dollar is trading broadly higher in Asian session today, and remains the strongest performer of the week, as markets head into the December US non-farm payrolls report. Within FX, USD/JPY stands out as a pair to watch, with the pair edging closer to levels that would confirm an upside...
Dollar Drifts Higher as Risk Tone Softens Amid Geopolitics, Tariff Ruling Looms
Market sentiment has tilted mildly risk-off, though there is no sign of aggressive follow-through selling. Price action suggests caution rather than panic, with investors trimming exposure while waiting for clearer signals from both geopolitics and economic data.
Geopolitical developments continue to dominate headlines this week and look unlikely to fade...
Risk Tone Softens, Oil Slips and Geopolitics Linger
Global markets have turned cautious again, with the mild selloff in US equities overnight that carried into Asian trading. A key trigger was pressure on US defense stocks after President Donald Trump’s said he would block dividends and stock buybacks for defense contractors unless they address concerns including executive...
ADP Reinforces ‘Cooling Not Cracking’ Jobs Narrative, Markets Back in Standby Mode
Global markets are trading in mixed fashion, with risk appetite showing early signs of fatigue after a strong start to the year. US equity futures are sluggish, pointing to a flat open after both the DOW and S&P 500 closed at record highs yesterday. December ADP private payrolls from...
Yen Recovers Amid China Export Curb, Aussie Firm Despite Softer CPI
Yen recovered modestly during the Asian session as Japanese equities edged lower, but both moves lacked conviction. The pullback in the Nikkei 225 was mild, and the corresponding FX response suggests investors see little reason to reassess the broader trend.
Geopolitical developments are weighing on Japanese sentiment after China imposed...
Caution Returns After Risk-on Moves, Australia CPI Take Over
Market conditions have settled after earlier risk-on moves, with European indexes and US futures showing little direction. The absence of follow-through buying suggests traders are shifting toward more cautious trading. With desks fully staffed again, attention is turning to Friday’s December US non-farm payrolls report. Dollar remains broadly on...
Risk-On Mood Hits Dollar, Hammers Yen, Lifts Aussie
Risk sentiment turned decisively positive overnight and carried through the Asian session as traders looked past Venezuela-related geopolitical risks. The shift marked a clear return to risk-on positioning, and prompted a broad reversal in the Dollar, which broke lower after firming earlier on Monday. With haven demand fading, the...
Dollar Leads as Markets Show Fragmented Risk Reaction to Venezuela News
Forex markets are trading in mixed fashion, with hesitant tone, as investors continue to digest the controversial US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. While geopolitical risk has clearly entered the equation, price action suggests the response is far from a textbook risk-off move.
There are visible...
Safe-Haven Bid Lifts Dollar and Metals, But Geopolitics Fail to Disrupt Risk Assets
As liquidity conditions have normalized quickly after the holiday lull, markets are digesting the fallout from Washington’s weekend raid in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. While the operation initially triggered a spike in geopolitical risk, price action suggests investors remain cautious but far from alarmed.
The greenback...