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Market Overview

Japan Signals “Sense of Urgency” on Yen Depreciation as USD/JPY Hits 149

Japan’s verbal intervention re-entered the spotlight today as USD/JPY briefly surged above the 149 mark amid a quiet Asian session. Yen continues to face pressure from the strong rebound in Dollar, driven by traders abandoning bets on of a 50bps Fed rate cut in November. Additionally, rising US and...

Dollar Rises on Fed Clarity, Oil Jumps on Rising Fears of Wider Middle East War

The financial markets gained much-needed clarity last week as strong US employment data aligned market expectations with Fed’s own monetary policy outlook. The possibility of a 50bps rate cut in November has now vanished, with traders anticipating two more standard 25bps cuts this year, matching Fed's dot plot. This development...

Dollar Jumps after Strong NFP, Traders Abandon Bets on 50bps Fed Cut

Dollar surged across the board during early US trading after the all-around stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll report. The data showed much higher-than-anticipated job growth, a slight decrease in unemployment rate, and an acceleration in wage growth. This robust set of figures has led traders to largely abandon bets on a...

Dollar Firm Ahead of NFP, Can Jobs Data Fuel Further Gains?

Dollar continues to dominate the currency markets this week, holding its position as the strongest performer as focus shifts to the upcoming non-farm payroll report from the US. Market reactions to this data will be crucial in shaping financial movements leading up to FOMC rate decision in November. If...

Pound Dives as BoE’s Bailey Suggests Aggressive Rate Cuts Possible

Sterling fell sharply today after BoE Governor Andrew Bailey surprised markets by suggesting the possibility of aggressive rate cuts in an interview with The Guardian. Market expectations quickly adjusted, with swaps now fully pricing in a 25bps cut in November. The odds of a second 25bps cut in December...

Dollar Advances with ISM Services Data Looming, Swiss CPI on Watch

Dollar is gaining some traction, emerging as the strongest currency of the week so far. Several factors are underpinning this momentum. First, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reaffirmed the expectation of two additional rate cuts this year, adhering to the script established in the latest dot plot. This stance...

Yen Weakens as Ishiba Softens Rate Hike Stance, US Yields Rise

Japanese Yen weakened notably in early US session, reacting to rising US Treasury yields, which were boosted by stronger-than-expected US ADP job data. Adding to Yen’s decline, Japan’s new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, who was initially perceived as a monetary hawk, has softened his stance on interest rate hikes....

Diverging Global Markets as US Caution Rises, HK Surges, and Oil Prices Jump

Global markets are showing mixed performance as sentiment diverges across regions. In the US, stocks closed lower with traders displaying increased caution. ISM manufacturing report indicated continuation of the prolonged recession in the sector, though without any sharp deterioration. Attention is now focused on upcoming key economic data, including...

Euro Falls on Increased Bets of ECB Oct Rate Cut, Dollar Builds Momentum

Euro declined broadly today after ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn became the first official to openly indicate that risks are now tilted toward another rate cut in October. Additionally, data showed that Eurozone's headline CPI fell below the ECB's 2% target for the first time since 2021, even...

Dollar Firms as Fed Powell Dismisses Rapid Rate Cuts, EUR/GBP Slips Before Eurozone CPI

Dollar stabilized overnight and is attempting to regain ground following recent losses. The greenback found some support after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, where he indicated that Fed is in no rush to implement rapid rate cuts. This has reduced market expectations for a 50bps cut at the November...

Euro Recovers Despite Soft German Inflation Data, AUD/JPY in Focus for Upcoming Session

Forex market activity was relatively subdued during European trading hours, with Euro recovering against both Sterling and Swiss Franc despite lower-than-expected inflation reading from Germany. However, the common currency continues to face resistance in breaking out of its range against Dollar. Markets will keep a close eye on ECB...

Diverging Trends in Asian Markets; EUR/USD Awaits Eurozone CPI and US NFP

Asian financial markets are displaying significant divergence today. Japan's Nikkei index has plummeted over -4%, reacting sharply to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's election results from last Friday. Shigeru Ishiba, the newly elected LDP leader and Japan's incoming Prime Minister, attempted to soften his previously hawkish stance on the...

Stimulus and Political Surprise in Asia Drive Market Sentiment

Unexpected developments from Asia significantly influenced global financial markets last week. China's surprise stimulus measures invigorated investor sentiment, leading to substantial gains in Chinese and Hong Kong equities, as well as strengthening Chinese Yuan. This positive shift boosted commodity-linked currencies, with New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar emerging as...

US Inflation Data Fuels More Risk-On Rally, Yen Surges After Ishiba’s LDP Leadership Win

Risk-on sentiment returned to global markets again in early US trading, driven by lower-than-expected inflation data. While annual PCE core inflation edged up to 2.7%, the monthly increase was a modest 0.1%. This tamer monthly inflation growth suggests that underlying price pressures would, at least, not obstruct Fed's to...

Risk-On Sentiment Drives Global Gains, Kiwi and Aussie Lead the Charge

Risk-on sentiment continues to dominate global financial markets today, driven by widespread monetary easing and a significant boost from China’s latest stimulus measures. US equities finished strong overnight, with all major indexes posting gains. S&P 500 hit a fresh record for the third consecutive time this week. Meanwhile, Germany’s...

Swiss Franc Steady as Dovish SNB Tone Balances Offsets Rate Cut

Swiss Franc remained relatively stable today following SNB's decision to cut its policy rate by 25bps, bringing it down to 1.00%. This move defied some market speculations that anticipated a larger 50bps reduction. Despite opting for a smaller cut, SNB issued a decidedly dovish statement, sharply downgrading its inflation...

Risk-On Sentiment Drives Asian Markets; Focus Shifts to SNB Rate Decision

Asian markets are maintaining a risk-on tone today, despite the lackluster US market performance overnight. Sentiment remains buoyed by China’s recent monetary stimulus measures, even as doubts linger about their overall effectiveness due to the absence of significant fiscal support. Nevertheless, stocks in Hong Kong and China continue to...

Euro Gains Momentum Despite ECB Rate Cut Speculations

Euro is gaining broadly today, even though there is no major fundamental news driving its ascent. Market expectations are mounting that ECB may cut interest rates as early as October, with HSBC projecting 25bps cuts at every meeting from October through April 2025. This would bring the deposit rate...

Dollar Slumps as Euro Eyes August High, Hong Kong Markets Approach Crucial Resistance

Dollar continued its broad-based weakness in Asian session, with selling pressure shifting towards European majors. EUR/USD is approaching its August high as the near-term rebound gathers momentum. This decline in the Dollar is partly attributed to weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence data released overnight, which has intensified market expectations of...

Aussie Stays Firm With Copper’s Rally Giving Extra Support

The forex market continues to display a mild risk-on mood, with commodity-linked currencies Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian Dollars gaining ground. In contrast, safe-haven currencies Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and Dollar are under pressure. Australian Dollar jumps earlier today following RBA's decision to hold rates steady, combined with China's broad...