Market Overview
Dollar Soars as PCE Inflation Unexpectedly Re-accelerates
Dollar jumps in early US session follow data that showed surprised re-acceleration in PCE inflation, and core. Stocks tumble at open while treasury yields rise. The situation for Fed interest to "stay longer and higher" continues to solidify. Selloff is more concentrated on Yen and commodity currencies while European...
Dollar Maintaining Gains, Focus Turns to PCE Inflation
The forex markets are generally quiet today, with most major pairs and crosses staying inside yesterday's range for now. Dollar is staying in a pole position for the week, maintaining most of the gains. The greenback will look into today's PCE inflation data for next move. Euro and Swiss...
Swiss Franc Broadly Lower, Dollar Extending Rally
Swiss Franc is trading broadly lower today while Yen and Aussie are also turning weaker. The theme for now is interesting will stay higher for longer due to resilience in major economies. Monetary policy in Japan and Swiss will be lagging behind. Dollar is staying generally firm and looks...
Dollar Breaking Out after Fed Minutes, Yen Recovering
Reaction to FOMC minutes overnight was relatively muted with major US indexes closing mixed, while 10-year yield dipped slightly. Dollar, however, is making some progress by breaking to the upside against Euro. But momentum of the greenback is so far rather weak. At the same time, Yen is trying...
Risk Sentiment Stabilized, Dollar Looks Into FOMC Minutes
Risk sentiment appears to have stabilized as markets enter into US session. There have been increasing speculation that Fed would revert to a 50bps rate hike in March. Traders might try to scrutinize FOMC minutes to get more hints on the chance. But overall, that's not the majority's opinion...
NZD Higher after RBNZ Hike, Other Commodity Currencies Soft
New Zealand Dollar rises broadly today after hawkish RBNZ hike. But other commodity currencies are lagging behind on risk-off sentiment. As for the week so far, Sterling remains the strongest, as supported by optimism on avoiding recession. Dollar followed as second as supported by rising treasury yields, and then...
Sterling Surges on Strong PMIs, Dollar Following
Sterling rises broadly today as stronger than expected PMI data indicate that near-term recession odds have fallen considerably. European majors are also trading higher after positive Eurozone PMI and Germany ZEW. Nevertheless, Dollar is following the Pound as the second strongest, with some help from risk aversion. Australian Dollar...
Markets in Consolidations, EZ and UK PMIs, ZEW and CA CPI Awaited
Markets are generally staying in consolidation mode in Asian session today. The retreat in Dollar this week is so far shallow, suggesting more upside is in favor. But the next move will still be dependent on overall risk sentiment. As for today, focuses will be on PMIs from Eurozone...
Aussie Leading Commodity Currencies Higher in Quiet Trading
Australian Dollar is leading other commodity currencies higher, in otherwise quiet markets today. US and Canada will be on holiday while European calendar is near empty. Trading should remain relatively subdued. RBNZ rate hike is a major focus this week while PMIs will also catch much attention. Yet, the...
Dollar Rose on Fed Expectations But Momentum Capped Again By Risk Sentiment
Dollar ended as the best performer last week, after data argued that the slow disinflation process could prompt Fed to tightening further to a higher terminal rate. Yet, buying remained rather uncommitted, as show in Friday's late pull back. Resilient risk sentiment continued to cap the greenback's upside, and...
Dollar Marches On With Negative Risk Sentiment
Risk sentiment appeared to have turned negative after this week's strong inflation data as well as hawkish comments from central bankers, not limited to Fed. Dollar is set to end as the best performer on expectations of higher terminal interest rate and risk aversion. But Euro is not too...
Dollar Breaking to the Upside, Europeans Relatively Resilient
Dollar appears to be finally staging a broad based upside breakout today, with help from mild risk aversion. This week's inflation and retail sales data suggested that risk to Fed tightening is more on the upside, and interest rate would at least stay high for longer. For now, Euro...
Yields Up, Stocks Down after US PPI, Dollar Trying Breakout Again
Dollar is apparently trying for a breakout in early US session after strong PPI inflation data. US futures also tumble while 10-year yield jumps. Still, The greenback is staying in range so far except versus Yen. As for the week, Yen is still the worst performer followed by Kiwi...
Dollar Failed Breakout for Now, Yen Weak, Euro Resilient
Despite another rally attempt overnight, Dollar failed to break through near term range against others except versus Yen. The Japanese currency was licking wounds in Asian session but remains the worst performer for the week, following extended rebound in US and European benchmark yields. Canadian is the next weakest...
Dollar Rises after Strong Retail Sales, Finally Committing to Rally?
Dollar might finally be committing to a rally after stronger than expected retail sales data. Consumer markets appeared to remain robust despite persistently high inflation. Talks of a higher terminal rate for Fed is also growing. On the other hand, Sterling was knocked down earlier today after lower than...
Yen Weakness Continues, Sterling Ready For More Upside
Yen's weakness is currently a clearer development in the rather indecisive markets. Germany and UK benchmark yields are extending near term rally while US 10-year yield stands firm above 3.7%. On the other hand, 10-year JGB yield is still capped by BoJ imposed ceiling. Dollar is mixed for now...
Dollar Struggles after CPI, Sterling Supported by Job Data
Dollar is rather indecisive in early US session. US consumer inflation slowed less than expected in January, support Fed to continue tightening, probably for longer. However, positive risk sentiment is offsetting the boost to the greenback. Sterling, on the hand, was lifted by solid job data while FTSE hitting...
Dollar Turns Soft, CPI Awaited
Dollar is trading on the softer side again as focus turns to CPI report from the US today. While the markets are finally buying in that federal fund rates would peak above 5% level, there are already some bets on a higher terminal rate. Meanwhile, the bets on a...
Yen Selloff Continues, Sterling Rises Ahead of Key Data
Selloff in Yen continues today even though 10-year JGB yield closed above BoJ's 0.5% cap. Traders are probably positioning for a not-that-hawkish BoJ governor nomination by the government tomorrow. Dollar also softens as major European indexes rise, together with US futures. Sterling firms up ahead of a string of...
Dollar Rises as Focus Turns to CPI This Week, Yen Down ahead of BoJ Nomination
Dollar rises broadly in Asian session as helped by mild risk aversion. Nikkei hits a 2-week love as heavyweight technology stocks slip. Yen softens at the same time, after a former staff of the top runner for BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he's neither hawkish nor dovish, but data...