Market Overview
Dollar Recovers Slightly, But Fed Cut Bets Cap Upside
Dollar steadied today, recovering modestly after yesterday's selling, though the move lacked conviction. With investors convinced the Fed will cut rates next week, the greenback remains capped, unable to mount a broader rebound. For now, the greenback is only outperforming Yen and Loonie. Yen remains under pressure from buoyant...
Risk-On Momentum Builds, Aussie Shines
Risk-on sentiment gripped markets on Friday, driving the Nikkei to fresh record highs in Asia after Wall Street’s main indexes closed at record levels overnight. Investors added to bets on faster Fed easing following the sharp jump in U.S. jobless claims, reinforcing the view that back-to-back cuts are on...
ECB and US CPI Underwhelm, Jobless Claims Take Spotlight
Today’s high-profile events turned out to be something of a letdown for traders. Euro dipped after the ECB held its deposit rate steady at 2.00% and published new staff projections, but the move was shallow and short-lived. Markets took note that both headline and core inflation are now projected...
ECB Hold Expected, U.S. CPI Could Move Everything
Asian markets were mixed in quiet trade today, with investors holding back ahead of two key events: the ECB policy meeting and U.S. CPI. The lack of conviction reflects a cautious stance, with traders unwilling to take on fresh positions before clarity emerges.
The ECB decision is much less likely...
Dollar Dips Slightly on Softer PPI, Bigger Bets Deferred Until CPI
Dollar dipped briefly in early American session while U.S. futures rebounded after producer price data showed cost pressures easing modestly. The report emboldened bets on further Fed easing, with odds of a 50bps cut next week edging up to 10% and expectations for a back-to-back October move climbing back...
Dollar Selloff Pauses Ahead of PPI Test
Dollar sellers paused, with the greenback holding just above recent lows as traders took profits ahead of two crucial U.S. inflation reports. Momentum stalled as markets awaited fresh catalysts in the form of PPI today and CPI on Thursday. Any signs of hotter-than-expected price growth may revive fears of...
Yen Rebounds Despite Confusion Over BoJ’s Next Move
Yen rebounded broadly today, climbing to the top of the performance leaderboard as traders latched onto speculation that the BoJ may still raise rates as soon as October. A Bloomberg report citing unnamed officials suggested some policymakers favor an earlier move, with reduced concern about growth risks following the...
Greenback on the Brink, France Adds Pressure to Euro
Dollar weakened broadly overnight and selling pressure persisted in Asia on Tuesday, with the greenback on the verge of breaking recent lows against Euro, Swiss Franc, and Aussie. The decline comes amid falling U.S. Treasury yields and growing conviction that the Fed will move toward faster easing.
With no major...
Euro Soft as France Faces Confidence Vote, Yen Weak Despite Recovery
Euro turned softer against both Sterling and Swiss Franc today as investors shifted focus to France ahead of a key confidence vote. While Thursday’s ECB rate decision dominates the week’s agenda, political instability in Paris could add fresh downside risk to the single currency.
Prime Minister François Bayrou’s minority government...
Yen Under Siege, Dollar Mixed Awaits CPI, Euro Steady Before ECB
A political shock in Tokyo is dominating global markets today, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announcing to step down over the weekend. The surprise resignation boosted risk appetite, propelling Nikkei. Yen, meanwhile, looks increasingly vulnerable. Last week’s dip in U.S. Treasury yields provided only temporary relief, and the currency...
Dollar Falters and Yields Dive, Gold Hits New Highs, Stocks Hesitate
The past week in global markets has been anything but routine. What began as cautious positioning around economic data turned into a full-scale rethink of Fed policy and global growth prospects. Currency traders, bond investors, and equity markets were all forced to adjust as the numbers told a weaker...
Dollar Slumps After NFP Shock, Fed Cut Bets Escalate
Dollar tumbled sharply in early New York trading Friday after much weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls report. 10-year Treasury yield plunging through the 4.1% level while Gold also surged to fresh record high.
Traders moved swiftly to reprice Fed expectations, with a 25bps cut this month fully baked in and fresh speculation...
Dollar Risks Not Symmetric: Weak NFP Could Trigger Bigger Move
The foreign exchange market remains largely range-bound as traders await today’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Recent labor indicators, including ISM employment components, point to downside risk for NFP. Both manufacturing and services sub-indexes remain in contractionary territory, while ADP payrolls growth slowed sharply in August. This suggests a soft...
Dollar Holds Firm as US Jobs Data Weaker But Not Disastrous
Today’s US job data pointed to a softer labor market but stopped short of signaling a collapse. The numbers reinforced the message that hiring is slowing, though not disastrously, giving the Fed justification to ease policy modestly without raising alarm over economic stability. Markets remain almost unanimous in pricing...
Cautious Tone Returns as ADP, ISM Set Stage for NFP
Markets adopted a cautious tone again today, as attention swung back to U.S. economic data. Today’s ADP private payrolls and ISM services figures are seen as key precursors to tomorrow’s highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls. The numbers are expected to sharpen the Fed’s rate-cut calculus, with traders reluctant to take...
Sterling Recovers Modestly, Global Yields Ease
Global markets steadied on today as benchmark treasury yields dipped modestly after this week’s sharp jump. The pullback in yields helped ease pressure on risk sentiment, with European stocks trading slightly higher while U.S. futures hovered near flat.
Sterling also managed a tentative rebound following its steep selloff yesterday. Although...
Global Risk Sentiment Hit by Sovereign Fears and Rising Yields; Dollar Firms as Yen, Sterling Lag
Asian equities traded lower today, tracking the decline on Wall Street overnight, as investors grappled with rising bond yields and renewed trade uncertainty. Even stronger-than-expected Chinese services PMI and robust Australian GDP data failed to lift sentiment, with risk aversion setting the tone across the region. Additionally, markets remain...
UK Long Bonds Lead Global Selloff, Sterling Slumps on Fiscal Worries
Global bond markets came under pressure in European session, led by a sharp selloff in long-dated UK gilts. Yield on UK 30-year surged past 5.65% to its highest in 27 years, breaking above the peak set in April. Investors are increasingly concerned that Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government may...
Yen Weakens on Trade Stalemate, Doubts on BoJ’s Next Move
Yen dominated currency moves in an otherwise subdued Asian session, with broad-based selling gathering pace. After weeks of range-bound trading, the Japanese currency may finally be breaking lower, particularly in the crosses where momentum is building.
Trade uncertainty is a central factor. Japan is still waiting for a formal executive...
Euro Leads But French Politics Cap Gains, Dollar Mixed
Euro is leading the foreign exchange market today, staging a solid recovery from last week’s weakness. Investors are clearly positioning back into the single currency, but the rally has yet to find a convincing fundamental driver, leaving momentum somewhat constrained.
Political uncertainty in France is also serving as a cap...