Australia monthly CPI slowed to 6.9% yoy in Oct, food inflation eased

    Australia monthly CPI slowed from 7.3% yoy to 6.9% yoy in October. The most significant contributors to the annual rise were new dwellings (+20.4%), automotive fuel (+11.8%) and fruit and vegetables (+9.4%).

    “High levels of building construction activity and ongoing shortages of labour and materials contributed to the rise in new dwellings” Michelle Marquardt, ABS Head of Prices Statistics said.

    Automotive fuel prices accelerated from 10.1% to 11.8% as the government’s temporary cut to the fuel excise ended on September 29. Annually, prices for fruit and vegetables rose by 9.4%, down from 17.4% in September.

    Full release here.

    ECB de Guindos: Interest rate not yet close to reversal rate

      ECB Luis de Guindos warned “while the low interest rate environment supports the overall economy, we also note an increase in risk-taking which could, in the medium term, create financial stability challenges”. Though, he also noted that current interest rates are not yet close to the so called reversal rate. That, where low rates actually hamper the banking sector rather than stimulate lending,

      Separately, Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf warned that “in the euro area we are also seeing protracted weakness. Both hard and soft data for the second half of the year point to continuing, moderate growth,” Additionally, “Brexit represents an enormous change – and transition – for the citizens of Ireland.”

      CAD extends broad based rally, GBP/CAD targets 0.6594, AUD/CAD targets 0.9201

        Canadian Dollar displays broad based strength today, as the post job data rally extends. Recent economic data from Canada suggesting that underlying backdrop is improving. GDP growth will likely regain momentum ahead to make up the short falls in the Q1. For now, BoC looks the least likely among global central banks to ease monetary policy. Indeed, should global trade tensions improve, BoC could be ready for policy normalization again.

        Technically, GBP/CAD’s break of 1.6093 support and today’s steep decline suggests resumption of fall from 1.7794. More importantly, the structure of the decline from 1.7794 affirms that it’s resuming that one from 1.8415 high too. A retest of 1.6594 low should be seen pretty soon. Break will target 100% projection of 1.8415 to 1.6594 from 1.7794 at 1.5973 in medium term. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.7135 near term resistance holds.

        AUD/CAD’s steep decline last week also suggests rejection by falling 55 day EMA, which is a bearish signal for near term. Further fall should be seen to 0.9201 support next and break will target 0.9105 low.

        Prior rejection by 55 week EMA also suggests medium term bearishness. However, over price actions don’t display clear downside impulsiveness. And AUD/CAD is relatively closely long term fibonacci level of 50% retracement from 0.7149 to 1.0784 at 0.8967. Hence, while a break of 0.9105 might be seen in medium term, 0.9 handle could contain downside.

        US personal income rose 0.6% mom in Dec, spending dropped -0.2% mom

          US personal income rose 0.6% mom, or USD 116.6B in December, well above expectation of 0.1% mom. Spending dropped -0.2% mom, or USD -27.9B, versus expectation of -0.40% mom. Headline PCE pride index accelerated to 1.3% yoy. Core PCE price index accelerated to 1.5% yoy.

          Full release here.

          BoJ Kuroda: Yen’s rapid weakening not because of monetary policy

            BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today, “I don’t think the BOJ’s monetary policy was the factor behind a rapid yen weakening. The recent yen weakening may have been driven by an abnormal situation where oil prices topped $130 per barrel.”

            He also said that the rapid depreciation of Yen was “undesirable”. But the situation was improving with Dollar easing back to around 127 Yen.

            Meanwhile, Kuroda also repeated the pledge to maintain powerful monetary easing to help the economy from recovering.

            Dollar to listen to Powell’s comments on growth in inflation, some previews

              Dollar is staying generally week today, except versus Kiwi and Yen. But FOMC announcement ahead could change its fortune. There is no chance for Fed to change federal funds rate at 2.25-2.50%. Also, Fed will, without a doubt, maintain its patient stance regarding any monetary policy adjustment.

              As a reminder, monetary policy normalization is considered largely completed after December’s rate hike. Balance sheet run-off is also on track to completion later this week. Generally speaking, policymakers would need strong evidence of an emerging trend in either inflation or employment to make another move.

              Yet, an important factor to watch is Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s response to strong growth but sluggish inflation. Dollar bears would like to hear Powell mentioning the downside risks in inflation and the readiness to cut interest rate should outlook worsens. On the other hand, Dollar bulls would like to hear Powell dismissing the talks of rate cut as being premature.

              Either way, Dollar would pick up its near term direction from there.

              Here are some suggested previews:

              RBNZ McDermott: We’re entering the next stage of evolution

                RBNZ Assistant Governor and Head of Economics John McDermott discussed “evolution in inflation targeting” in a speech  delivered to the RBA conference on central bank frameworks in Sydney today. He noted that the New Zealand “framework has changed significantly over thirty years, reflecting lessons learned and the changing economic and political environment” And, the central bank is ” about to enter the next stage of that evolution.”

                A key recent change to RBNZ’s framework is duel mandates of inflation and employment. The exact wordings to be put on the Reserve Bank Act are not finalized yet. But putting a qualitative target like “maximum sustainable employment” would be a better choice rather than a numerical target. He pointed out that “focusing too narrowly on one indicator, such as the unemployment rate, can be misleading. For example, a fall in the unemployment rate could be the result of an increased demand for labour – typically reflecting a strong economy – or the result of people dropping out of the labour force altogether because they are unable to find a job and have become discouraged.”

                Full speech here. An interesting read for understanding how the RBNZ framework evolved in the past decades.

                US ADP jobs grew 242k in Feb, pay growth still quite elevated

                  US ADP private sector employment grew 242k in February, above expectation of 200k. By sector, goods-producing jobs rose 52k and service-providing jobs rose 190k. By size, small companies lost -61k jobs, but medium companies added 148k and large companies added 160k. Pay growth for job stays slowed to 7.2% yoy, slowest in 12 months.

                  “There is a tradeoff in the labor market right now,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.  “We’re seeing robust hiring, which is good for the economy and workers, but pay growth is still quite elevated. The modest slowdown in pay increases, on its own, is unlikely to drive down inflation rapidly in the near-term.”

                  Full release here.

                  Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.2, moved closer to stabilization

                    PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 47.2 in August, up from July’s 45.2. Markit noted slowest falls in output and new orders since early 2020. Export sales also decline at weakest rate for seven months. There is modest drop in employment.

                    Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, said: “The latest PMI data show that Japan’s manufacturing sector moved closer to stabilisation in August, as firms signalled weaker drops in output and orders… It is hoped that as economies around the world reopen and business operations normalise, this will feed through to firmer customer demand and a recovery of Japanese manufacturing activity in the months ahead.”

                    Full release here.

                    Eurozone retail sales flat in April, EU up 0.1% mom

                      Eurozone retail sales was unchanged for the month in April, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Volume of retail trade increased by 0.5% mom for non-food products, while it decreased by -0.5% mom for food, drinks and tobacco and by -2.3% mom for automotive fuels.

                      EU retail sales rose 0.1% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in the Croatia (+3.4%), Luxembourg (+3.3%) and Sweden (+3.1%). The largest decreases were observed in Slovakia (-5.8%), Romania (-3.7%) and Slovenia (-2.4%).

                      Full Eurozone and EU retail sales release here.

                      Eurozone exports rose 0.3% yoy in Jun, imports down -17.7% yoy

                        Eurozone exports of goods rose 0.3% yoy to EUR 252.3B in June. Imports fell -17.7% yoy to EUR 229.3B. Trade balanced recorded a EUR 23B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -4.1% yoy to EUR 231.6B.

                        In seasonally adjusted term, exports dropped -0.5% mom to EUR 237.2B. Imports dropped -5.6% mom to EUR 224.6B. Trade surplus widened to EUR 12.5B, larger than expectation of EUR 2.3B. Intra-Eurozone trade fell from EUR 220.8B to 217.6B during the month.

                        Full Eurozone trade balance release here.

                        Chinese VP Liu wrapped first day of negotiation with a smile as new tariffs will start shortly

                          Chinese Vice Premier Liu He wrapped his first day of meeting with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. After 90 minutes meeting in the USTR office, they had a dinner together. Ahead of the meeting, Liu said: “We come here this time, under pressure, which shows China’s greatest sincerity, and want to sincerely, confidently, and rationally resolve certain disagreements or differences facing China and the United States. I think there is hope,”

                          Trump said he got a “beautiful letter” from Chinese President Xi Jinping and they’ “probably” speak by phone. Trump reiterated his hard line and said “Our alternative is an excellent one, it’s an alternative I’ve spoken about for years. We’ve taken well over $100 billion from China in a year.”

                          For now, no phone call has been made yet, nor scheduled. White House just noted that the negotiations will continue on Friday morning in Washington. Meanwhile, the tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese imports will be raised from 10% to 25% at 12:01am EDT (0401 GMT) today. China’s retaliations are expected to follow soon. And, the US has also started the paperwork to impose 25% tariffs on extra USD 325B in untaxed Chinese goods.

                          Sterling stabilized as May narrowly avoided defeat on Brexit trade bill

                            Sterling dropped sharply overnight after Prime Minister Theresa May suffered unexpected defeat on one amendment on the Brexit Trade Bill in the parliament. That amendment requires the government to take “all necessary steps” to join the European medicines regulatory framework. The Pound the stabilized after May narrowly defended the main amendment to the trade bill by 307 to 301 votes. That amended required the government to negotiate a customs union arrangement with EU if by January 21, 2019, it failed to negotiate a deal of frictionless trade for goods.

                            Sterling is holding above 1.3048 against Dollar for the momentum while EUR/GBP’s breach of 0.8901 was, so far, weak. At least for now, May’s position is still safe and she’s avoided a confidence vote. Nevertheless, the tight voting of Monday and Tuesday showed how divided the pro- and anti-EU camps are and it’s like an impossible task to bridge between them. A confidence vote on May could happen any time should she slip.

                            ECB Panetta: Intervening on inflation now creates more damage than benefit

                              ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said the current inflation in Eurozone is bad but also temporary. It’s driven by supply chain disruptions and energy prices which are “bound to be overcome”. He would be among the first in favor to intervene if inflation are becoming more permanent.

                              But he added, “the central bank is not intervening because if it did, it would create more damage than benefit. It’s like an illness, not all medicines are good for all illnesses.”

                              Fed Bullard: Getting to neutral isn’t going to be enough

                                St Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an FT interview, there’s “a bit of a fantasy” in current policy in centrals banks to think thank inflation could be brought down by moving interest rate to neutral.

                                “Neutral is not putting downward pressure on inflation. It’s just ceasing to put upward pressure on inflation,” he said. “We have to put downward pressure on the component of inflation that we think is persistent.”

                                “Getting to neutral isn’t going to be enough it doesn’t look like, because while some of the inflation may moderate naturally . . . there will be a component of it which won’t,” he added.

                                Bullard also warned that this week’s CPI report just ” underscores the urgency that the Fed is behind the curve and needs to get moving.”

                                “If markets and households get the idea that the Fed’s not going to do the right thing and not going to keep inflation under control, then you have to gain credibility by actually doing things that show them that you are serious,” he said.

                                Chinese Xi urged to safeguard the rule-based multilateral trading regime

                                  Chinese President Xi Jinping called for joint effort in fighting protectionism at a BRICS summit in South Africa today. He told BRICS leaders that “we must work together … to safeguard the rule-based multilateral trading regime; promote trade and investment, globalization and facilitation; and reject protectionism outright.”

                                  But Xi should be reminded that EU and US have agreed on a joint position. That is, both EU and US agreed to join forces against “unfair global trade practices”. And specifically, they the practices include “intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, industrial subsidies, distortions created by state owned enterprises, and overcapacity.” They clearly target China and it’s time for Xi to step up reforms.

                                  BoE kept rate unchanged at 0.75%, Haskel and Saunders dissented again

                                    BoE left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Bank Rate was held at 0.75% with 7-2 vote. Jonathan Haskel and Michael Saunders dissented and voted for -25bps rate cut again. Asset purchase target was kept at GBP 435B on unanimous vote.

                                    In the accompanying statement, BoE said since the previous meeting “economic data have been broadly in line” with November forecasts. GDP is expected rise “only marginally” in Q4. Household consumption has continued to grow steadily, but business investment and export orders have remained weak. There were some signs of “loosening” in labor market, but it remains tight. Headline CPI is expected to fall to around 1.75% by spring, “owing to the temporary effects of falls in regulated energy and water prices.”

                                    BoE also noted that “monetary policy could respond in either direction to changes in the economic outlook”. “monetary policy may need to reinforce the expected recovery in UK GDP growth and inflation” should Brexit uncertainties remain entrenched, or global growth fails to stabilize. However, if the risks do not materialize and economy recovers in line with latest projections, “some modest tightening of policy, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, may be needed”.

                                    US oil inventory dropped -0.9m barrels, WTI struggles to extend rebound

                                      US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -0.9m barrels in the week ending March 26, versus expectation of -1.3m. At 501.8m barrels, oil inventories are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories dropped -1.7m barrels. Distillate rose 2.5m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -2.0m barrels. Commercial petroleum inventories dropped -1.3m barrels.

                                      WTI crude oil is still struggling in established range above 57.31. While it’s drawing some support from 55 day EMA, it’s struggling to extend the rebound form 57.31. Focus is now on 62.22 resistance. Firm break there will indicate completion of the correction from 67.83, and bring retest of this high.

                                      Nevertheless, sustained break of the 55 day EMA will indicate that WTI is in a medium term correction. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 33.50 to 67.83 at 54.71 at least, before the correction completes..

                                      RBA Debelle: Decline in interest rates across yield curve has lowered exchange rate

                                        In a speech, RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle said the comprehensive package of measures implemented through this year “has materially lowered the structure of interest rates in the Australian financial system”. Additionally, “the decline in interest rates across the yield curve has lowered the exchange rate, relative to what it otherwise would be.”

                                        He acknowledged that the news about vaccines “should help bolster that confidence”. But recovery will be “uneven”. “It is likely to be some time before the vaccines will be widely available and distributed.”

                                        Full speech here.

                                        DOW flirting with 20k again on stimulus optimism

                                          US stocks surge sharply in early trading on optimism that politicians in US are close to getting a deal on another coronavirus stimulus package.

                                          House speaker Nancy Pelosi told CNBC, “I think there is real optimism that we could get something done in the next few hours.” “Overarchingly, I think we are getting to a good place, if they stay there.”

                                          Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said “at last I believe we’re on the five-yard line. It has taken a lot of noise and a lot of rhetoric to get us here. Despite all of that we are very close.”

                                          DOW is currently up from than 1400 pts or 7.6%, and it’s now flirting with 20000 handle again. But major focus for the near term is 20531.26 resistance. Break will confirm short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in hourly MACD. In that case, further rise could be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 29568.57 to 18213.65 at 22551.22.