Gold upside breakout, ready for 1916 resistance

    Gold rises further to as high as 1878.84 so far today. The break of 1877.05 resistance indicates resumption of whole rally from 1682.60. Further rally will be expected as long as 1850.63 support holds. 1916.30 resistance is the next target and break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 1682.60 to 1877.05 from 1752.12 at 1946.57.

    More importantly, sustained break of 1946.57 will affirm the case that whole medium term correction from 2074.84 has completed at 1682.60, after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84. That is, retest of 2074.84 should be seen next with prospect of resuming the long term up trend at a later stage.

    RBA minutes: Prepared to be patient on interest rate

      In the minutes of February 1 meeting, RBA reiterated that it “will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target band.” It’s “too early to conclude that it was sustainably within the target band”. There were uncertainties about “how persistent the pick-up in inflation would be as supply-side problems were resolved” and “wages growth also remained modest”. The central bank is “prepared to be patient”.

      Omicron outbreak “had affected the economy, but had not derailed the recovery”. The economy was “resilient” and was expected to “pick up as case numbers trended lower”. Job market had “recovered strongly” with central forecasts seeing unemployment to fall to “levels not seen since early 1970s”. Wages growth was expected to pick-up, buy only gradually.

      Inflation had “picked up more quickly than the Bank had expected”, but was still “lower than in many other countries”. “Some moderation” in inflation was expected as “supply problems were resolved.” Stronger growth in labour costs was expected to become the “more important driver of inflation”. The central forecast was for underlying inflation to be within the target band over both 2022 and 2023.

      A decision about reinvestment of asset purchases would be made at the May meeting, with the key considerations being the “state of the economy and the outlook for inflation and unemployment.”

      Full minutes here.

      Japan GDP grew 1.3% qoq in Q4, remains slightly be pre-pandemic level

        Japan GDP grew 1.3% qoq in Q4, slightly below expectation of 1.4% qoq. In annualized term, GDP grew 5.4%, below expectation of 5.8%.

        Private consumption grew 2.7% qoq, accounting for much of the growth. Capital expenditure rose 0.4% qoq. External demand rose 0.2% qoq.

        For 2021 as a whole, GDP grew 1.7%, marking the first expansion in three years. The seasonally-adjusted real GDP size at JPY 541T remains slightly below pre-pandemic level of late 2019.

        BoJ Kuroda: Baseline for economy and prices to gradually pick up

          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the baseline forecast is for Japan’s economy and prices to gradually pick up as rising real household income underpins consumption. Nevertheless, the “economic and price conditions warrant maintaining our easy monetary policy.”

          He acknowledged that the market operation of an offer to buy unlimited amount of bonds on Monday successfully pushed 10-year JGB yield from near 0.25% to 0.22%. But he emphasized it’s a “last resort” and a “powerful means not used explicitly by other central banks.” “We don’t expect to conduct such operation frequently. We’ll do this as needed,” he added.

          Fed Bullard: We need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation

            St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC today, “we need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously. We’ve been surprised to the upside on inflation. This is a lot of inflation.”

            “Our credibility is on the line here and we do have to react to the data,” he added. “However, I do think we can do it in a way that’s organized and not disruptive to markets.” Bullard added that Fed should raise interest rate by a full percent point by July. “I think my position is a good one, and I’ll try to convince my colleagues that it’s a good one,” he said.

            Regarding the 7.5% consumer inflation rate in January, Bullard said, “my interpretation was not so much that report alone, but the last four reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the U.S. economy,”

            “The inflation that we’re seeing is very bad for low- and moderate-income households,” he said. “People are unhappy, consumer confidence is declining. This is not a good situation. We have to reassure people that we’re going to defend our inflation target and we’re going to get back to 2%.”

            Fed George: We have got to get to neutral really fast

              In a WSJ interview, Kansas City Fed Esther George said that with inflation at at 7.5% in January, and the benchmark interest a rate near zero, Fed’s policy is “out of sync”. But she said it’s too soon to say if Fed should hike by 50bps in March. She also hasn’t form a view on how much interest rate has to go up this year.

              “What we have to do is be systematic,” George said. “It is always preferable to go gradual…Given where we are, the uncertainties around the pandemic effects and other things, I’d be hard-pressed to say we have got to get to neutral really fast.”

              “If we get to March and the data says we should be talking about that [a half-point rate increase], I’m sure that will be in play, but I’m not sure that is the answer, per se, to how we get there,” George added.

              She also dismissed the idea of holding an emergency FOMC meeting to raise interest rate. “I don’t know that I’d call the markets reacting to data an emergency here, because frankly, in my own forecast of looking where inflation was moving, the print was not a surprise,” she said.

              Nikkei lost -2.2% on risk aversion, heading back to 26k first

                Markets are generally staying in risk-off mode today as there is no sign of de-escalation in Russia-Ukraine situation. Nikkei tumbled sharply by -616.49 pts, or -2.23%, to close at 27079.59.

                Near term bearishness in Nikkei remains after rejection by 55 day EMA. The choppy decline from 30795.77 is in progress for retesting 26044.52 low. But, the major line of defense is at 38.2% retracement of 16358.9 to 30795.77 at 25280.61. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound.

                However, the rejection by 55 week EMA is also a medium term bearish sign, which argues that the fall from 30795.77, as a correction to the up trend from 16358.19, might last longer than originally expected. Indeed, sustained break of 25280.61 could send Nikkei further to the zone between 50% retracement at 23576.98 and 61.8% retracement at 21873.34 before bottoming.

                New Zealand BNZ services dropped to 45.9, lowest since Oct

                  New Zealand BusinssNZ Performance of Services index dropped -3.9 to 45.9 in January. That was the lowest result since October 2021. Looking at some details, activity/sales dropped sharply from 50.7 to 44.1. Employment ticked down from 49.1 to 48.1. New orders/businesses dropped deeply from 52.0 to 41.8. Stocks/inventories dropped from 51.0 to 47.6. Supplier deliveries also tumbled from 49.8 to 43.6.

                  BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that “the PSI can jag around quite a lot from month to month – upwards and downwards. However, it’s also worth pointing out that the long-term average of the PSI is 53.6, which is starting to feel some distance away. So much for the new traffic light system releasing the brakes on activity.”

                  Full release here.

                  ECB Rehn: Better to look beyond short-term inflation

                    ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Saturday, “If we reacted strongly to inflation in the short term, we would probably cause economic growth to stop. It’s better to look beyond short-term inflation and look at what inflation is in 2023, 2024.” He expected inflation to be close to the 2% target in the coming years.

                    “We will have time to react in the March meeting and in later meetings if it looks like the situation is markedly different than it now appears,” Rehn added.

                    Another Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said, “the monetary policy stance remains expansionary, though the gradual normalization will continue at a pace consistent with the economic recovery and changes in the outlook for prices.”

                    “I do not believe that the overall picture underlying this stance has changed significantly,” Visco said. Still, “in the short term, there has been an increase in the risk of consumer prices growing faster than expected and production activity growing more slowly.”

                    Fed Daly prefers measured approach after March hike

                      San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CBS on Sunday, “it is obvious that we need to pull some of the accommodation out of the economy”. However, “history tells us with Fed policy that abrupt and aggressive action can actually have a destabilizing effect on the very growth and price stability that we’re trying to achieve,” she warned.

                      “What I would favor is moving in March and then watching, measuring, being very careful about what we see ahead of us — and then taking the next interest rate increase when it seems the best place to do that. And that could be in the next meeting or it could be a meeting away,” Daly said.

                      NIESR forecasts 1.0% growth in UK GDP in Q1

                        NIESR forecast growth of 1.0% in UK GDP in Q1. It said that economic impact of Omicron was “far smaller than” previous two waves. The -0.2% fall in December GDP was also better than consensus forecasts, suggesting the “possibility of a positive reading in January.

                        “The economic impact of Omicron was far smaller than that of either of the two previous major waves of Covid-19: a mere 0.2 per cent fall in December was even stronger than consensus forecasts, but in line with NIESR’s January GDP tracker, suggesting the possibility of a positive reading in January. Unsurprisingly, retail and hospitality contributed the most to December’s fall, with the healthcare sector providing the largest positive contribution.” – Rory Macqueen Principal Economist, NIESR

                        Full release here.

                        DIHK downgrades Germany growth forecasts to 3.0% in 2022

                          Germany’s Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK)  lowed 2022 growth forecasts from 3.6% to 3.0%. That is, the economy will probably not reach the pre-crisis level until middle of the year.

                          “The economy is holding its breath. There is still a cautiously optimistic mood in the companies. However, many do not know how things will continue due to great uncertainty,” said DIHK Managing Director Martin Wansleben.

                          “In addition to the Corona crisis and delivery bottlenecks, the biggest stress factors are above all the sharp rise in energy and raw material prices and the shortage of skilled workers. In addition, there are further expected cost increases due to the transformation in climate protection. It is still an open question, especially for companies that are in international competition how such a compensation should work. Many fear a deterioration of their position on the world markets.”

                          Full release here.

                          UK GDP contracted -0.2% mom in Dec, up 1.0% qoq in Q4

                            UK GDP contracted -0.2% mom in December, better than expectation of -0.5% mom. Services output dropped -0.5% mom. Production rose 0.3% mom while construction rose 2.0% mom. Services and construction were both above pre-coronavirus levels, by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, but production remained -2.6% below.

                            Q4 GDP grew 1.0% qoq, slightly below expectation of 1.0% qoq. The level of GDP in Q4 remained below -0.4% below its pre-coronavirus level in Q4 2019. Nevertheless, monthly GDP was already at its pre-coronavirus level in February 2020.

                            Full GDP release here.

                            Also published, manufacturing production rose 0.2% mom, 1.3% yoy in December versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.7% yoy. Industrial production rose 0.3% mom, 0.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 0.6% yoy. Goods trade surplus came in at GBP -12.4B, versus expectation of GBP -13.0B.

                            RBNZ survey: Another rate hike expected in Q1, 4-5 hikes in a year

                              In the latest Survey of Expectations of RBNZ, OCR expectations continued to rise in the short, medium and long term. OCR is expected to rise from current 0.75% to 1.05% by the end of Q1. Mean estimate for OCR for one year ahead was 2.11%, indicating four to five 25bps hikes. Mean two-year ahead OCR expectations were at 2.47%

                              One-year inflation expectations rose from 3.70% to 4.4%, highest since November 1900. Two-year ahead inflation expectations rose from 2.96% to 3.27%, highest since 1991. Five-year inflation expectations also rose slightly from 2.17% to 2.30%, highest since 20-17.

                              Full release here.

                              RBA Lowe: We have scope to wait and see

                                RBA Governor Philip Lowe told a parliamentary committee that it is “too early” to conclude that inflation is “sustainably in the target range”. He added, “in underlying terms, inflation has just reached the midpoint of the target band for the first time in over seven years”.

                                The board is “prepared to be patient” and “we have scope to wait and see how the data develop and how some of the uncertainties are resolved. Countries with higher inflation rates have less scope here.”

                                Full statement here.

                                Fed Bullard wants to be nimble on rates, but Daly and Barkin may not

                                  St Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday’s inflation report “shows continued inflationary pressure in the US” and is “concerning for me and for the Fed.” He added, “you have got the highest inflation in 40 years and I think we are going to have to be far more nimble and far more reactive to data.”

                                  “I’d like to see 100 basis points in the bag by July 1,” Bullard added. “I was already more hawkish but I have pulled up dramatically what I think the committee should do.”

                                  However, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said a half-point rate hike “is not my preference. “”Markets have already priced in the withdrawal of accommodation, and that is them hearing what the Fed is clearly communicating.”

                                  Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said “I’m open to it conceptually”, regarding a half point hike. “Do I think there’s a screaming need to do it right now? I’d have to be convinced of that,” he added.

                                  ECB Lagarde: We don’t want to choke off the recovery

                                    ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview that raising interest rates “would not solve any of the current problems.” Instead, “if we acted too hastily now, the recovery of our economies could be considerably weaker and jobs would be jeopardized.”

                                    “The U.S. economy is overheated, whereas our economy is far from being that,” she said. “That’s why we can — and must — proceed more cautiously. We don’t want to choke off the recovery.”

                                    “Inflation may turn out to be higher than we projected in December,” Lagarde said. “We will analyze that in March, and then take it from there.” She also noted that inflation would exceed 2% target in medium term only if wages were to “significantly and persistently” break that level. “We are not seeing that at the moment at all,” she said. “In most euro-area countries, including Germany, wage demands are very moderate.”

                                    US CPI rose to 7.5% yoy, core CPI to 6.0% yoy, highest since 1982

                                      Over the month, US CPI rose 0.6% mom in January, above expectation of 0.4% mom. CPI core rose 0.6% mom, above expectation of 0.5% mom.

                                      Over the 12-month period, CPI accelerated from 7.0% yoy to 7.5% yoy, above expectation of 7.3% yoy. That’s the highest level since February 1982. CPI core jumped from 5.5% yoy to 6.0% yoy, above expectation of 5.9% yoy. That’s the highest level since August 1982.

                                      Energy index rose 27.0% yoy while food index rose 7.0% yoy.

                                      Full release here.

                                      US initial jobless claims dropped -15k to 223k

                                        US initial jobless claims dropped -15k to 223k in the week ending February 5, better than expectation of 230k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -2k to 253k.

                                        Continuing claims was unchanged at 1621k in the week ending January 29. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 16.5k to 1645k.

                                        Full release here.

                                        ECB Lane: Hold-steady approach reinforced if bottlenecks are primarily external in nature

                                          ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a blog post, “in terms of inflation dynamics, the relative price dislocations associated with bottlenecks are intrinsically short-term rather than permanent in nature.” Further, “initial increases in relative prices of categories that experienced high demand and/or low supply can be expected to level off or even reverse.”

                                          Additionally, “it should be acknowledged that bottlenecks are not the only factor influencing the overall inflation environment, with a comprehensive monetary policy assessment taking into account a wide range of factors.”

                                          “Since bottlenecks will eventually be resolved, price pressures should abate and inflation return to its trend without a need for a significant adjustment in monetary policy.”

                                          “The logic underpinning a hold-steady approach to monetary policy is reinforced if the bottlenecks are primarily external in nature, caused by global disruptions in supply or a surge in global demand”.

                                          Full blog post here.