France PMI composite dropped to 39.9, businesses adapting well to new restrictions

    France PMI Manufacturing dropped to 49.1 in November, down from October’s 51.3, missed expectation of 50.1. PMI Services dropped to 38.0, down from 46.5, matched expectations. PMI Composite dropped to 39.9, down from 47.5. All are 6-month lows.

    Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said: “With the renewed tightening of restrictions in France at the end of October, a sharp decline in private sector activity during November was almost inevitable. However, it is somewhat positive to see that the latest contraction in activity was substantially slower than during the previous lockdown. These results suggest that some French businesses have been able to adapt their operations to the new conditions and are subsequently less susceptible to sharp downturns in activity when tighter restrictions are imposed.

    Full release here.

    Fed Bullard: Not much of an imperative for a new fiscal package

      St Louis Fed President James Bullard said there’s not much of an “imperative” about a new fiscal package now.”It seems like, at least in some broad macroeconomic type of calculation, we have enough resources to cover this,” he said in a Bloomberg interview.

      “We might be able to sustain a recovery through this,” he said. “I’m hopeful we still have enough in the pipeline to push us through, get the growth going in the second half of the year. That certainly seems to be what’s happening in the third quarter. I think that will continue in the fourth quarter and the first part of next year.”

      BoE Cunliffe on four lessons learned from crypto winter

        BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe talked about the lessons learned from recent “instability and losses in crypto markets”, also called the “crypto winter”.

        He said, “a widespread collapse of crypto-asset valuations has cascaded through the crypto ecosystem and generated a number of high-profile firm failures,” which also resulted in Bitcoin losing 70% of its value.

        The four lessons learned include:

        • Technology does not change the underlying risks in economics and finance;
        • Regulators should continue and accelerate their work to put in place effective regulation of the use of crypto technologies in finance;
        • This regulation should be constructed on the iron principle of ‘same risk, same regulatory outcome’ ;
        • Crypto – technologies offer the prospect of substantive innovation and improvement in finance. But to be successful and sustainable innovation has to happen within a framework in which risks are managed: people don’t fly for long in unsafe aeroplanes.

        Full speech here.

        Australia Westpac consumer sentiment rose to 111.8 in March, close to 10-year high

          Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment rose 2.6% to 111.8 in March, from February’s 109.1. It’s now just 0.2 pts below the 10-year high recorded in December. “the main factors driving the Index are improving economic conditions and prospects, both domestically and abroad, particularly as they relate to our labour market.”

          Westpac said RBA should be “well pleased” with the economic progress. “It is unlikely to make any changes to its current policy settings or signal any likelihood of changes in the near future.”

          Full release here.

          Australia NAB business confidence dropped to 12, come back to earth

            Australia NAB business confidence dropped from 20 to 12 in November. Business conditions improved from 10 to 12. Looking at some details, trading conditions rose from 15 to 16. Profitability conditions rose were unchanged at 8. Employment conditions rose from 6 to 11.

            “Confidence remains high across states and industries, albeit it has come back to earth a little after the optimism associated with the end of lockdowns,” said NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster.

            “Forward indicators are also very strong with a rise in capital expenditure a welcome sign that businesses are beginning to look towards a period of expansion. These results align with the strong rebound in activity that we believe is now underway, as well as a positive outlook for the coming months with vaccination rates now very high.”

            Full release here.

            US NFP grew 2.5m, unemployment rate dropped to 13.3%

              US total non-farm payroll employment grew 2509k in May, well above expectation of -8000k decline. BLS said the improvements in the labor market reflected a “limited resumption of economic activity” curtailed in March and April due to coronavirus pandemic.

              Unemployment rate dropped to 13.3%, down from 14.7%, beat expectation of 19.6%. Number of unemployed persons dropped -2.1m to 21.0m. Participation rate also rose 0.6% to 60.8%. Average hourly earnings, however, dropped -1.0% mom, below expectation of 0.7% mom.

              Full release here.

              China’s coronavirus case jumped to 4515, death toll at 106

                According to latest update from China’s National Health Commission, confirmed cases of coronavirus in China jumped to 4515 as of January 27, up from 2835 reported a day earlier. Death toll also rose to 106, up from 81. Asian markets continue to trade in deep risk aversion as the outbreak of coronavirus shows no sign of slowdown. At the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.85% and Singapore Strait Times is down -2.59%. China and Hong Kong remain on holiday.

                The coronavirus also continues to spread to other places in the world. Germany has confirmed the first case late on Monday, in the town of Starnberg, 30km southwest of Munich. The health department said the patient is in “good condition” and isolated under medical observation. Also, “people who have been in contact (with the patient) have been informed in detail about possible symptoms, hygiene measures and transmission channels.”

                The US Centers for Disease Control said yesterday that the number of “patients under investigation” in the U.S. has almost doubled from the 63 reported on Thursday, to 110. The agency increased its travel warning for all of China, asking people traveling to practice “enhanced precautions.”

                Nikkei dived through medium term channel support, correction to extend to 25k

                  As global risk sentiments turned sour, Nikkei closed down -2.49%, or 699.50 pts, today, to close at 27448.01. The development is now more bearish with medium term channel support firmly taken out. We’re now seeing price action from 30714.52 as correcting the whole up trend from 16358.19.

                  With that in mind, near term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 28419.84 support turned resistance holds. The correction could extend to 38.2% retracement of 16358.19 to 30714.52 at 25230.40 before completion. We’d see if other global stocks would move in tandem.

                  ECB Lagarde expects some interesting variations and changes in Jul meeting

                    ECB President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg that there will at “some interesting variations and changes” in the upcoming July 22 meeting. “It’s going to be an important meeting,” she added. “Given the persistence that we need to demonstrate to deliver on our commitment, forward guidance will certainly be revisited.”

                    The immediate task for the Governing Council to align the statement and forward guidance with the result of the strategic review. “We’re going to look at the circumstances, we’re going to look at what forward guidance we need to revisit, we’re going to look at the calibration of all the tools we are using to make sure that it is aligned with our new strategy,” she said.

                    Regarding the PEPP program, she expected it to continue until “at least” March 2022, then followed by a “transition into a new format”, without elaboration. She emphasized, “we need to be very flexible and not start creating the anticipation that the exit is in the next few weeks, months.”

                    BoC Macklem: Solid rebound expected in the immediate months ahead

                      In a speech, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said Canadians “have already climbed a long way back from the very deep economic hole we were in last spring”. Much of Canada emerging from the latest round of pandemic containment measures, “we expect a solid rebound in the immediate months ahead”.

                      But he also said “it will be some time before we see a complete economic recovery”. Economic slack won’t be fully absorbed until into 2023. “Even as it recovers, the economy is adapting to structural changes, and some workers will need to shift to jobs in faster-growing sectors”.

                      “This all points to an even more protracted recuperation period while the economic potential that was lost over the course of the pandemic is rebuilt,” he added.

                      Full speech here.

                      Eurozone retail sales dropped -1.3% mom in Apr, EU down -1.3% mom

                        Eurozone retail sales dropped -1.3% mom in Apr, much worse than expectation of 0.3% mom rise. Volume of retail trade decreased by -2.6% for food, drinks and tobacco and by -0.7% for non-food products, while it increased by 1.9% for automotive fuels.

                        EU retail sales dropped -1.3% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Slovenia (-7.7%), Germany (-5.4%) and Latvia (-3.9%). The highest increases were observed in Spain (+5.3%), Luxembourg (+3.7%) and Ireland (+1.9%).

                        Full release here.

                        EU to push reform of three WTO functions in upcoming G20 summit

                          Defending multilateral rules-based international order would be a focus of EU in the upcoming G20 summit in Argentina later this week. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk outlined the key issues in a joint letter today, including global confidence, fair globalisation and trade, climate change, Africa-Europe Alliance etc.

                          On trade, they warned that “the rules-based multilateral trading system is facing a deep crisis” and the “entire system” is at risk. They also criticized that “the longstanding G20 commitments to keep markets open, to fight protectionism and support the multilateral trading system, risk becoming empty words.”

                          EU will promote “a positive trade agenda, including the reform of the three functions of the World Trade Organisation (negotiating, monitoring and dispute settlement functions”. And it urged that “G20’s support can be instrumental in providing political impetus to the trade discussions in Geneva”.

                          EU’s “Facts and figures about the European Union and the G20” booklet here.

                          NZ unemployment rate unchanged at 3.3%, record hourly earning growth

                            New Zealand employment grew 1.3% in Q3, above expectation of 0.5%. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.3%, above expectation of 3.2%. Labor force participation rate rose 0.8% to 71.7%. Underutilization rate dropped -0.2 to 9.0%.

                            Average ordinary time hourly earnings rose 2.4% qoq, 7.4% yoy. The annual rise was the highest since the series began in 1989. All salary and wage rates (including overtime) index rose 3.7% yoy, second highest annual rate since record began in 1993.

                            Full release here.

                            US PPI rose 0.8% mom, 9.6% yoy in Nov, highest annual rise on record

                              US PPI for final demand rose 0.8% mom in November, above expectation of 0.6% mom. For the 12-month period, PPI rose 9.6% yoy, accelerated from 8.6% yoy, above expectation of 9.1% yoy. That’s also the largest annual advance on record since November 2010.

                              PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.7% mom, 6.9% yoy. The annual rise was the highest on record too, since August 2014.

                              Full release here.

                              Markets shrug Trump’s unsubstantiated tax cut for middle class

                                Trump talked about the plan to give middle class 10% tax cut yesterday. He said “we’re putting in a resolution some time in the next week and a half to two weeks [and] we’re giving a middle-income tax reduction of about 10 percent.” He insisted that the plan will go through Congress rather than executive order. And the vote will be done after mid-term election.

                                But the initiative is widely criticized as unsubstantiated as Republican congressional leaders and White House officials were reported to have heard nothing about the plan. Additionally, Congress is in recess ahead of mid-term election and there is no plan to return to Washington for the matter.

                                White House spokeswoman Lindsay Walters clarified yesterday that “as part of Tax Reform 2.0, the first elements of which were passed the House in September, the President would like to see an additional tax cut of 10% for middle-income families.” That effectively confirmed that the idea of 10% tax cut is something entirely new.

                                The three bills of the so called Tax Reform 2.0 was passed in the House in late September. And it’s already facing a tough batter in the Senate. It is seen as nearly impossible to add additional deficit ballooning 10% tax cut to the plan and get through either House or Senate. The claimed 10% tax cut for the middle class is seen as campaign gimmick rather than anything with substance.

                                The US markets shrugged off the news with DOW closing down -0.50% at 25317.41. Consolidation from 24899.77 is in progress but fall from 26951.81 medium term should resume sooner or later.

                                US ISM services ticked down to 55.1, corresponds to 1.8% annualized GDP growth

                                  US ISM Services PMI ticked down from 55.2 to 55.1 in February, above expectation of 54.4. Looking at some details, business activity/production dropped from 60.4 to 56.3. New orders rose from 60.4 to 62.6. Employment rose from 50.0 to 54.0. Prices dropped from 67.8 to 65.6.

                                  ISM said: “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (55.1 percent) corresponds to a 1.8-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  NIESR expects 0.9% UK GDP growth in June, 1.9% in Q3

                                    NIESR said UK’s 0.8% GDP growth in May “disappointed”. It expected GDP growth of 0.9% in June, and 4.8% in Q2 overall. Nevertheless, “with catch-up potential still evident in hospitality, transport, business support and the arts, we forecast growth of 1.9 per cent in the third quarter, still notably above historical trend growth rates.” But, “much will depend on the roll-out and efficacy of the vaccines in the context of the Delta variant.”

                                    “Like April, May’s GDP growth was faster than usual but almost entirely driven by the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, with the hospitality sector accounting for 0.7 percentage points of May’s 0.8 per cent growth. Underlying growth is moderate outside the sectors being unlocked, with supply constraints contributing to the continuing recent stagnation in manufacturing. It remains to be seen whether the lifting of further restrictions in July contributes to a continuation of strong growth in the third quarter or – if cases of Covid-19 continue to rise – increased caution among consumers and even another national lockdown.”

                                    Rory Macqueen Principal Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting

                                    Full release here.

                                    US Ambassador to China Branstad: Trump wants a “dramatic increase” in food exports to China

                                      US Ambassador to China Terry Branstad said in Tokyo today that both countries are still “very far apart” on resolving trade frictions. Branstad, was present at the meeting between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in Beijing earlier this month. He noted that “there are many areas where China has promised to do but haven’t. We want to see a timetable. We want to see these things happen sooner or later.”

                                      He added that Trump would like to see a “dramatic increase” in food exports to China and “we’d like to see China being just as open as the United States.”

                                      Trade talks will resume today with Liu arrived in Washington.

                                      Italy to cut debt to 129.2% of GDP in 2019 to address EU concern

                                        According to the new draft budget plan (DBP) submitted by Italy to the European commission, growth forecasts are held unchanged at 1.5% in 2019, 1.6% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021. These are widely seen as overly optimistic as European Commission forecasts only 1.2% growth in 2019. The IMF projects only 1.0% growth in Italy in the same year. The budget deficit target was also held at 2.4% of GDP in 2019. Among that, Italy planned to raise its structural deficit by 0.8% of GDP. This is clearly a violation of EU’s demand to cut by -0.6%.

                                        However, the new draft showed fall debt as Italy planned to use funds equal to 1% of GDP from privatization. This is seen as an act to address EU’s major concern on ballooning debt. Public debt is now estimated to fall to 129.2% of GDP in 2019, then further to 127.3% in 2020, and then 126.0% in 2021. Italy’s debt stands at 130.9% this year.

                                        The new DBP now risk triggering the Commission’s penalty process. But Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini warned that “they’ve got it wrong if they are even just thinking of imposing fines on the Italian people.” Economy Minister Giovanni Tria also insisted that fiscal expansion is necessary for the country.

                                        UK payrolled employees rose 275k in Feb, unemployment rate dropped to 3.9% in Jan

                                          UK number of payrolled employees rose 275k in February. Comparing with prepandemic level in February 2020, number of payrolled employees was up 662k. Claimant count dropped -48.1k, versus expectation of 20.3k rise.

                                          In the three months to January, unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to 3.9% in the three months to January, better than expectation of 4.0%.

                                          Average earnings including bonus rose 4.8% 3moy in January, above expectation of 4.6%. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 3.8% 3moy, also above expectation of 3.7%.

                                          Full release here.