New Zealand’s goods exports rises 16% yoy in Feb, imports up 3.3% yoy

    In February, New Zealand’s goods exports leaped by 16% yoy to NZD 5.9B. This surge contrasts with a more modest 3.3% yoy increase in goods imports, totaling NZD 6.1B. Consequently, monthly trade deficit narrowed significantly to NZD -218m, far exceeding market expectations of a shortfall of NZD -825m.

    Exports to China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, increased by 10% yoy, contributing an additional NZD 154m. US saw a remarkable 52% yoy jump in exports, adding NZD 305m, while EU and Australia also recorded increases in New Zealand exports by 7.9% yoy and 5.9% yoy, respectively. However, trade with Japan contracted, with exports declining by -10% yoy.

    On the import front, China and South Korea marked significant increases of 7.1% yoy and 42% yoy, respectively, indicating robust demand for goods from these economies. Conversely, imports from US and EU saw downturns, declining by 20% yoy and 7% yoy.

    Full New Zealand trade balance release here.

    EU demonstrates commitment to Iran nuclear deal with measures on four fronts

      European Commission formally announced the measures to protect interests of EU companies investing in Iran as part of the EU’s continued commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), the Iran nuclear deal. The EU acted on four fronts. The proposals got unanimous backing of EU Heads of State of Government at the Sofia meeting.

      Firstly, it launched the formal process to activiate the “Blocking Statute”, by updating the list of US sanctions on Iran falling within its scope. It “forbids EU companies from complying with the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions, allows companies to recover damages arising from such sanctions from the person causing them, and nullifies the effect in the EU of any foreign court judgements based on them.”. It’s targeted to be in force before August 6, 2018.

      Secondly, it launched the formal process to remove obstacles for the European Investment Bank (EIB) to decide under the EU budget guarantee to finance activities outside the European Union, in Iran.

      Thirdly, as confidence building measures, the Commission will continue and strengthen the ongoing sectoral cooperation with, and assistance to, Iran.

      Fourthly, EC is encouraging Member States to explore the possibility of one-off bank transfers to the Central Bank of Iran.

      Full release here and details of the “Blocking Statute” here.

      Fed softened hawkish tone, but not dovish

        In light of the Fed announcement and press conference overnight, it appears that another 25bps rate hike is likely in May, followed by a prolonged pause with no rate cut expected until next year. The overall picture remains hawkish, albeit not as much as after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s earlier testimony this month.

        As anticipated, Fed raised interest rates by 25bps to 4.75-5.00%. While the tightening bias was maintained, the statement softened its tone, stating, “some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Despite recent market turmoil, median projections still indicated an interest rate peak of 5.1% this year, suggesting one more 25bps hike before pausing until next year. The median projection for 2024 interest rate increased from 4.1% to 4.3%, signaling a slower path of rate cuts.

        During the post-meeting press conference, Powell acknowledged that “financial conditions seem to have tightened” recently, adding that if the situation persists, it could “easily have a significant macroeconomic effect, and we would factor that into our policy decisions.” While he admitted that a pause was considered during the meeting, he emphasized that a rate cut this year was “not our baseline expectation,” stating, “the key is we have to have policies tight enough to bring inflation down to 2%.”

        Suggested readings on Fed:

        Today’s top mover NZD: Building up case of trend reversal

          Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar surge broadly today. Meanwhile Dollar is under heavy selling pressure as it’s possibly staging a broad based near term bearish reversal. As a result NZD/USD is the top mover for today up to now.

          In the background, bullish convergence is seen in both 4 hour and Daily MACD. Adding to that, 55 day EMA is firmly taken out with today’s rally. The case of medium term reversal is building up. Immediate focus is now on 100% projection of 0.6424 to 0.6610 from 0.6464 at 0.6650. Firm break of this projection level will suggests that rise from 0.6424 is an impulsive wave, which further affirm the reversal case.

          In that case, NZD/USD would target 38.2% retracement of 0.7436 to 0.6424 at 0.6811. Reactions from there will determine whether price actions from 0.6424 is the start of an up trend or just forming a corrective pattern. However, rejection from 0.6650, followed by break of 0.6573 minor support, will retain medium term bearishness and turn focus back to 0.6424 low.

          Dollar index range bound as US GDP and Fed awaited

            Two heavy weight events are scheduled for the US today. Firstly. Q1 GDP is expected to show -4.0% annualized contraction. That would be the steepest contraction since the Great Recession in 2009. Consumer spending has definitely suffered a big hit from the coronavirus lockdowns. Some focuses would be on business investments. Optimism was lifted just for a brief while by US-China trade agreement phase one, but then nose-dived on the pandemic.

            Fed is generally expected to keep monetary policies unchanged today. There will be no formal economic projections until June, which is agreeable as everything ties to how the coronavirus pandemic is contained. Nevertheless, Fed chair Jerome Powell could still offer a glimpse of what he expected in the second half, and he view on the shape of the recovery. Guidance on interest rates would be something to watch too. Powell has ruled out negative rates for now and we’ll see if he sticks to the same position.

            Suggested readings:

            While Dollar is performing rather poorly this week, the development in Dollar index isn’t that bad. That’s primarily due to indecisiveness in Euro, though. Technically, we’re seeing price actions from 102.99 as a corrective pattern, with the sideway pattern from 98.27 as the second leg. Firm break of 55 day EMA will confirm the start of the third leg towards 98.27 support. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 94.65 to 102.99 at 97.83 to contain downside and bring rebound.

            ECB Kazimir: We will have to keep raising interest rates for longer than anticipated

              ECB might need to keep raising interest rates for longer than initially anticipated, according to Governing Council member Peter Kazimir. His comments indicate an evolving stance within ECB as it grapples with stubbornly high inflation in the Eurozone.

              “Based on today’s data, we will have to keep raising interest rates for longer than anticipated,” Kazimir stated. He suggested a slower pace of rate hikes, at 25 basis points increments, as a measured approach that allows for longer-term adjustments, should incoming data warrant it. “So, slowing down the pace to 25 bps is a step that will allow us to go gradually higher for longer, should that be necessary and warranted by incoming data,” he explained.

              Kazimir pointed to core inflation trends, rising wage pressures, and high-profit margins as factors necessitating vigilance and the continued pursuit of the ECB’s current monetary policy trajectory. “The development of core inflation, the continued buildup of wage pressures, and high-profit margins call for vigilance and reconfirm the need to continue on our path,” he said.

              However, the true effectiveness of the ECB’s measures and the trajectory of inflation towards the target will not be fully assessed until the September forecast. “Our September forecast will be the earliest date to answer how effective our measures are and whether inflation is moving towards the target,” Kazimir added.

              ECB Knot: It’s pertinent that Italy complies with EU budget rules

                ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said today that “it’s quite pertinent that Italy actually complies with the rules” of EU on budget. Or, he warned that “if it doesn’t, the result is that spread will go up.”

                For now, Knot saw limited contagion from rising Italian yields. He added “we’re not seeing an overall deterioration in credit conditions, we’re not seeing an overall deterioration in financial conditions”. And, “those would have to be the kind of things that we would first have to see before could contemplate changing our course of action.”

                Italian 10 year yield hit as high as 3.547 earlier today and it’s now at 3.494, up 0.047.

                BoJ Kuroda: Recovery sustains as business sentiments improves for three straight quarters

                  BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said “while Japan’s economy remains in a severe state due to the pandemic’s impact, it is picking up as a trend”. As a whole, “recovery is being sustained as business sentiment improves for three straight quarters.”

                  Still, Kuroda warned that “downside risks remain high”. BoJ will continue to “patiently” maintain its powerful monetary easing to achieve the 2% inflation target.

                  Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 47.8, predictably tough start to 2021

                    Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 45.4 in January, down from December’s 46.4. PMI Composite was finalized at 47.8, down from prior month’s 49.1. Among some member states, Germany PMI Composite dropped to 7-month low of 50.8. France at 47.7, Italy at 47.2, Spain at 43.2 and Ireland at 40.3, were all below 50.

                    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “The eurozone economy endured a predictably tough start to 2021… especially in the service sector…. A contraction of GDP therefore looks likely in the first quarter, though on current trends this should be modest in comparison to the falls seen in the first half of 2020.

                    “However, with virus containment measures likely to constrain euro area economies in the coming months, and potentially well into the second quarter given the slow vaccine roll-out, the focus will be on the need to sustain supportive fiscal and monetary policymaking for some time to come, notably to prevent further intensifying job losses in the hardest hit sectors, such as hospitality, tourism, travel and retail.

                    Full release here.

                    Australia employment rose 178.8k in Oct, hours worked surged

                      Australia added 178.8k jobs in October, much better than expectation of -30.0k decline. Full-time jobs rose 97k while part-time jobs rose 81.8k. Unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 7.0%, better than expectation of 7.2%. Also, participation rate jumped notably by 0.9% to 65.8%. Monthly hours worked jumped 21million or 1.2%.

                      Bjorn Jarvis, head of Labour Statistics at the ABS, said: “This strong increase means that employment in October was only 1.7 per cent below March, and reflects a large flow of people from outside the labour force back into employment. Encouragingly, the rise in employment was also accompanied by a strong rise in hours worked, particularly in Victoria, where hours increased by 5.6 per cent.”

                      Full release here.

                      BoJ Kuroda: Inappropriate to tighten policy or diminish monetary support

                        BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda held his inaugural press confidence today. Here are some comments:

                        • “I think the process of any shift (from easy policy) would be cautious and gradual, as with U.S. and European central banks,”
                        • “The economy and prices are doing quite well now but there’s some distance to achieving 2 percent inflation,”
                        • “It’s inappropriate to tighten policy or diminish monetary support to create policy room to cope with a future downturn”

                        The comments are basically the same as what we heard from Kuroda repeatedly.

                        US ISM services rose to 53.9, corresponds to 1.4% annualized GDP growth

                          US ISM Services PMI rose from 50.3 to 53.9 in June, above expectation of 51.3. Business activity/production jumped from 51.5 to 59.2. New orders rose from 52.9 to 55.5 Employment rose from 49.2 to 53.1. Prices dropped from 56.2 to 54.1.

                          ISM said, “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for June (53.9 percent) corresponds to a 1.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                          Full US ISM services release here.

                          Fed’s Goolsbee highlights yet to be seen impact of Rate Hikes

                            In an interview with CNBC, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that the full impact of the 500 basis points increase executed over the past year has yet to fully materialize. He expressed concern over the tight credit conditions that currently prevail and urged careful monitoring of the economic landscape.

                            Goolsbee mentioned that his support for a rate hike earlier this month was a “close call.” He stated, “The thing that made it a close call for me is this big question mark about what is going to be the impact of this on credit conditions.”

                            UK and EU still some distance part on Brexit deal

                              UK Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said he had a “constructive meeting” European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic, on Brexit. “We both were clear with each other where we were still some distance apart but we were both also clear that we wanted to bridge that gap,” he added. “Maros Sefcovic and I are committed to using every moment available: every second, every minute, every hour, in order to reach agreement and I’m confident that we will.”

                              But Gove also insisted that the clauses of the Internal Mark Bill “are there, they’re in legislation, supported by the House of Commons, as a safety net, if need be. And those clauses will remain in that bill.”

                              Sefcovic, on the other hand, said, “the UK’s positions are far apart from what the EU can accept. I have repeated the EU’s request to withdraw the contentious part of the draft Internal Markets Bill by the end of September.” “We maintain that the bill, if adopted in its current form, would constitute an extremely serious violation of … the Withdrawal Agreement and of international law,” he said.

                              Brexit negotiation will resume in Brussels on Tuesday, lasting until Friday morning. The EU is expecting a deal by the end of October, or early November, to allow time for ratification by the European Parliament and some national parliaments, for the deal to take effect from 2021.

                              ECB kept main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.00%. Full statement

                                ECB left main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.00% as widely expected. Marginal lending rate and deposit rate were held at 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. It also reiterated that interest rates will ” remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019″.

                                Full statement below.

                                Monetary policy decisions

                                At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

                                Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council will continue to make net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the new monthly pace of €15 billion until the end of December 2018. The Governing Council anticipates that, subject to incoming data confirming the medium-term inflation outlook, net purchases will then end. The Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of the net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

                                The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.

                                Canada CPI rose to 3.6% yoy in May, highest since 2011

                                  Canada CPI accelerated to 3.6% yoy in May, up from 3.4% yoy, above expectation of 3.5% yoy. That’s the largest increase since May 2011. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 2.5% yoy. Looking at some details, prices rose in every major component on a year-over-year basis. Shelter prices rose 4.2% yoy, largest since September 2008. Durable goods prices rose 4.4% yoy, largest since 1989.

                                  CPI common rose to 1.8% yoy, up from 1.7% yoy, matched expectations. CPI median rose to 2.4% yoy, up from 2.3% yoy, matched expectations. CPI trimmed rose to 2.7% yoy, up from 2.3% yoy, above expectation of 2.4% yoy.

                                  Full release here.

                                  US consumer confidence rose to 137.9, consumers expect strong growth to carry over into early 2019

                                    US Consumer Confidence rose to 137.9 in October, up from revised 135.3, beat expectation of 135.0. That’s also the higest level in 18 years since September 2000. Present Situation Index improved from 169.4 to 172.8. Expectations Index rose from 112.5 to 114.6.

                                    Conference Board noted in the release that “Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions remains quite positive, primarily due to strong employment growth. The Expectations Index posted another gain in October, suggesting that consumers do not foresee the economy losing steam anytime soon. Rather, they expect the strong pace of growth to carry over into early 2019.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    US stocks appear to be lifted by the stronger than expected release. DOW initially hesitated today but it’s now up 1%.

                                    UK corrected Trump’s false claim on Brexit deal

                                      Without knowing the details, Trump questioned if the Brexit deal with EU with hamper trade with the US. But UK PM May’s office quickly clarified and corrected Trump’s claim.

                                      Trump said to reporters outside the White House that “I think we have to take a look seriously whether or not the UK is allowed to trade.” And, he added, “because right now if you look at the deal, they may not be able to trade with us.”

                                      May’s office then said “the political declaration we have agreed with the EU is very clear we will have an independent trade policy so that the UK can sign trade deals with countries around the world — including with the US.” And, “we have already been laying the groundwork for an ambitious agreement with the US through our joint working groups, which have met five times so far.”

                                      BIS: Protectionism, snapback in yields, politics in Euro area are possible triggers of downturn

                                        The Bank for International Settlements warned in its annual report that escalation of protectionist measures is one possible trigger of global economic slowdown or downturn. It said that “its impact could be very significant, if such escalation was seen as threatening the open multilateral trading system.” And, there are already signs that the these measures and the “ratcheting-up of rhetoric” are “inhibiting investment”. And, trade negotiations would “become more complicated” with recent reversal US Dollar depreciation.

                                        Sudden “decompression” of historically low bond yields, or “snapback” in core sovereign market yields could be another trigger. And, Biassed it could take place “in response to an inflation surprise” and “the perception that central banks will have to tighten more than anticipated. In the US, “the prospective heavy issuance of government debt, combined with the gradual unwinding of central bank purchases, could add to this risk.” BIS also noted that the surprise “need not be a large one”, yet the impact could spread globally.

                                        General reversal in risk appetite is a third possible trigger. And, such reversal could reflect a range of factors, including disappointing profits, the drag of the contraction phase of financial cycles where these have turned, a souring of sentiment vis-Ă -vis EMEs, or untoward political events threatening stability in some large economies. BIS added that from this perspective, “recent events in the euro area are a source of concern.”

                                        Editorial of the annual report here.

                                        Full BIS annual report here.

                                        ECB Villeroy backs 50bps hike this month to finish first half of the game

                                          ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in an interview on Sunday, for this month’s meeting, “it’s desirable to bring rates to 2%, so a rise of 0.5 or 50 basis points.”

                                          Bringing interest rate to 2% will market the first half of the game of normalization. “In the second half of the match, rates will continue to rise but I can’t say where this will stop,” adding the the pace would be slower.

                                          He also noted it would be “wise to start to reduce (the balance sheet) in 2023, beginning with the APP holdings in the “first half of the year, clearly but cautiously and progressively.”