China trade surplus widened to USD 34B in October, both import and export rose

    From China, exports rose 15.6% yoy in October to USD 217.3B. Imports rose 21.4% yoy to USD 183.2B. Trade surplus widened to USD 34.0B, below expectation of USD 36.3B.

    In CNY terms, exports rose 20.1% to CNY 1490B. Imports rose 26.3% to 1257B. Trade surplus widened to CNY 234B, above expectation of CNY 209B.

     

    BoE Ramsden: Range of outcomes for Brexit clearly still possible

      BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said the central bank is so far still adopting the assumption of smooth Brexit in its forecasts. But he also noted that a “range of outcomes for Brexit are clearly still possible”.

      Pointing to the market, he said “option pricing implies that market participants are insuring to a greater degree against tail outcomes.” Also, Sterling’s depreciations suggested a “greater increase in relative weight on downside outcomes”.

      Nonetheless, he played down the moves and noted that were still small relative to those we saw ahead of the referendum.”

      G20 pledged to strengthen contribution of trade to the economies

        G20 finance ministers and central bankers stepped up their language regarding trade tension in the communique after the meeting in Argentina. The communique noted that “risks over the short and medium term have increased”. And the risks include “financial vulnerabilities, heightened trade and geopolitical tensions, global imbalances, inequality and structurally weak growth, particularly in some advanced economies.” The group pledged to “continue to monitor risks, take action to mitigate them and respond if they materialise.”

        The communique also noted that “international trade and investment are important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development.” The group reaffirmed the conclusions on trade at the Hamburg Summit and “recognise the need to step up dialogue and actions to mitigate risks and enhance confidence”. And “we are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.”

        Below is the full communique.

        Communiqué

        G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors

        July 23, 2018, Buenos Aires, Argentina

        1. Global economic growth remains robust and unemployment is at a decade low. However, growth has been less synchronised recently, and downside risks over the short and medium term have increased. These include rising financial vulnerabilities, heightened trade and geopolitical tensions, global imbalances, inequality and structurally weak growth, particularly in some advanced economies. We will continue to monitor risks, take action to mitigate them and respond if they materialise. Although many emerging market economies are now better prepared to adjust to changing external conditions, they still face challenges including market volatility and reversal of capital flows.
        2. We will continue using all policy tools to support strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth. Monetary policy will continue to support economic activity and ensure price stability, consistent with central banks’ mandates. Fiscal policy should be used flexibly and be growth-friendly, prioritise high quality investment, while enhancing economic and financial resilience and ensuring debt as a share of GDP is on a sustainable path. Continued implementation of structural reforms will enhance our growth potential. We reaffirm our exchange rate commitments made in March. We will clearly communicate our macroeconomic and structural policy action. International trade and investment are important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development. We reaffirm our Leaders’ conclusions on trade at the Hamburg Summit and recognise the need to step up dialogue and actions to mitigate risks and enhance confidence. We are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.
        3. As we embrace technological transformation, we will ensure its benefits are widely shared and address the challenges it creates for individuals, businesses, and governments. We endorse the Menu of Policy Options for the Future of Work (the Menu) which will help us to: harness technology to strengthen growth and productivity; support people during transitions and address distributional challenges; secure sustainable tax systems; and ensure that the best possible evidence informs our decision-making. The Menu also reinforces the importance of international cooperation and promoting gender equality. We will draw on the Menu to respond to the impacts of technological change, considering individual country circumstances.
        4. To further boost infrastructure investment, and support growth and development, we welcome progress on the Roadmap to Infrastructure as an Asset Class. We endorse the G20 Principles for the Infrastructure Project Preparation Phase which will help deliver a pipeline of well-prepared and bankable projects that are attractive to private investors by improving assessments of project rationale, options appraisal, commercial viability, long-term affordability, and deliverability. We look forward to key progress being achieved under the Roadmap in the areas of risk mitigation and credit enhancements, data availability, and contractual and financial standardisation by the end of 2018. The Private Sector Advisory Group will continue informing the work on the key challenges in attracting private investment to infrastructure. We agree to extend the mandate of the Global Infrastructure Hub to 2022. We call for coordination among current initiatives sponsored by MDBs and others to avoid duplication of efforts.
        5. Against the backdrop of recent volatility in financial markets and capital flows, we continue our work as agreed in March, including on monitoring cross-border capital flows and examining available tools to help countries harness their benefits while also managing risks.
        6. We reaffirm our commitment to further strengthening the global financial safety net with a strong, quota-based, and adequately resourced IMF at its centre. We are committed to concluding the 15th General Review of Quotas and agreeing on a new quota formula as a basis for a realignment of quota shares to result in increased shares for dynamic economies in line with their relative positions in the world economy and hence likely in the share of emerging market and developing countries as a whole, while protecting the voice and representation of the poorest members by the Spring Meetings and no later than the Annual Meetings of 2019.
        7. We continue to monitor debt vulnerabilities in Low Income Countries (LICs) with concern. Accurate and comprehensive debt data are essential in ensuring sound borrowing and lending practices. We welcome again the Operational Guidelines for Sustainable Financing and we agree that building capacity in public financial management, strengthening domestic policy frameworks, and enhancing information sharing would help avoid new episodes of debt distress in LICs. We support ongoing work by the IMF, WBG and Paris Club on LICs debt. We will work towards enhancing debt transparency and sustainability, and improving sustainable financing practices by debtors and creditors, both official and private.
        8. We are looking forward to the report by the G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance.
        9. The financial system must remain open, resilient and supportive of growth. We remain committed to the full, timely and consistent implementation and finalisation of the post-crisis reforms, and the evaluation of their effects. We welcome progress on the evaluations by the FSB and standard setting bodies (SSBs) of the effects of the reforms on infrastructure financing and incentives to centrally clear over-the-counter derivatives and we expect the final results by the Leaders’ Summit. We look forward to the FSB’s continued progress on achieving resilient market-based finance. We continue to monitor and, if necessary, address emerging risks and vulnerabilities in the financial system.
        10. Technological innovations, including those underlying crypto-assets, can deliver significant benefits to the financial system and the broader economy. Crypto-assets do, however, raise issues with respect to consumer and investor protection, market integrity, tax evasion, money laundering and terrorist financing. Crypto-assets lack the key attributes of sovereign currencies. While crypto- assets do not at this point pose a global financial stability risk, we remain vigilant. We welcome updates provided by the FSB and the SSBs and look forward to their further work to monitor the potential risks of crypto-assets, and to assess multilateral responses as needed. We reiterate our March commitments related to the implementation of the FATF standards and we ask the FATF to clarify in October 2018 how its standards apply to crypto-assets.
        11. We support a globally fair, sustainable, and modern international tax system. We reaffirm the importance of the worldwide implementation of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting package. We remain committed to work together to seek a consensus-based solution to address the impacts of the digitalisation of the economy on the international tax system by 2020, with an update in 2019. We call on all jurisdictions to sign and ratify the multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters. Jurisdictions scheduled to commence automatic exchange of financial account information for tax purposes in 2018 should ensure that all necessary steps are taken to meet this timeline. We support the OECD strengthened criteria to identify jurisdictions that have not satisfactorily implemented the internationally agreed tax transparency standards. Defensive measures will be considered against listed jurisdictions. We support enhanced tax certainty and tax capacity building, including through the Global Knowledge-Sharing Platform for Tax Administration under the umbrella of the Platform for Collaboration on Tax, and welcome the Latin America Academy for Tax Crime Investigation in Buenos Aires.
        12. Mobilising sustainable finance and strengthening financial inclusion are important for global growth. We welcome the G20 Sustainable Finance Synthesis Report 2018 which presents voluntary options to support deployment of sustainable private capital. We endorse the G20 Financial Inclusion Policy Guide on Digitisation and Informality, which provides voluntary policy recommendations to facilitate digital financial services, taking into account country contexts. While significant progress has been made to lift financial inclusion through the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion, we ask that it streamlines its work program and structure so it continues to support economic growth, financial stability and reducing inequality.
        13. Our fight against terrorist financing, money laundering and proliferation financing continues. We call for full, effective and swift implementation of FATF standards. We call on FATF to further enhance its efforts to counter proliferation financing. We commit to further our individual and collective efforts to eliminate the financial networks supporting terrorist groups.

        Communiqué Annex

        Issues for Further Action

        We welcome the MDB Infrastructure Cooperation Platform, which will report to the Infrastructure Working Group, and ask that advice be provided to us by the 2018 Leaders’ Summit on its activities to improve MDB project preparation, standardisation of guarantees and credit enhancement tools, and data availability. We call on the IWG to study the feasibility of new mechanisms to create portfolios of infrastructure assets, including brownfield infrastructure projects, that can be purchased by institutional investors.

        We ask the OECD to report by the 2018 Leaders’ Summit on the number of jurisditions that are at risk of being considered as not having satisfactorily implemented internationally agreed tax transparency standards. We also ask the OECD to prepare a list by the 2019 Leaders’ Summit of the jurisdictions that have not yet sufficiently progressed toward a satisfactory level of implementation. We ask the OECD and the IMF to report to Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in 2019 on progress made on tax certainty.

        We reiterate our call for the Platform for Collaboration on Tax to develop its workplan on its commitments by the IMF/WBG Annual Meetings this year and provide a progress report in 2019.

        We look forward to the report by the FSB on policy development under its action plan to assess and address the decline in correspondent banking relationships by the 2018 Leaders’ Summit. To ensure the GPFI continues to make a positive contribution to financial inclusion, we ask that it considers where its work could be rationalised and prioritised. We also ask the GPFI to consider its current structure with a view to more closely aligning it with other working arrangements in the G20 finance track. This includes combining the work of the four GPFI sub groups into one working group, appointment of working group co-chairs and changing its membership arrangements. We expect the the GPFI to provide a roadmap by the Leaders’ Summit in December on the path to achieving the requested changes in 2020.

        We look forward to the implementation of the outcomes of the April Paris Conference on Counter Terrorist Financing.

        Reports and Documents Received

        Global Economy

        • G20 Surveillance Note, IMF

        Future of Work

        • G20 Menu of Policy Options for the Future of Work, FWG
        • Future of Work: Measurement and Policy Challenges, IMF
        • Tax Policies for Inclusive Growth in a Changing World, OECD
        • Maintaining Competitive Conditions in the Era of Digitalisation, OECD
        • Financing Social Protection and Lifelong Learning for the Future of Work: Fiscal Aspects and Policy Options, ILO
        • Policy Options to Support Innovation in Developing Countries, WBG

        Infrastructure

        • G20 Principles for the Infrastructure Project Preparation Phase, G20, IWG 3
        • G20/OECD/WB Stocktake of Tools and Instruments Related to Infrastructure as an Asset Class, Background Document, OECD and WBG
        • G20/OECD Effective Approaches for Implementing the G20/OECD High-Level Principles on SME Financing, OECD

        Financial Regulation

        • Evaluation of the Effects of Reforms on Infrastructure Finance Consultative Document, FSB
        • Evaluation of Incentives to Centrally Clear OTC Derivatives Draft Executive Summary of Consultative Document, FSB
        • Cyber Lexicon Consultative Document, FSB
        • Crypto-Assets Report on Work by the FSB and Standard-Setting Bodies, FSB

        International Financial Architecture

        • IMF Institutional View in Practice, IMF
        • The OECD Code of Liberalisation of Capital Movements: Update on Developments, OECD
        • Joint Note on Strengthening Public Debt Transparency — the Role of the IMF and the World Bank, IMF and WBG
        • Joint Note on Improving Public Debt Recording, Monitoring and Reporting Capacity in Low and Lower Middle-Income Countries, IMF and WBG
        • Joint Note Updating on the Implementation of the G20 Principles for Effective Coordination between the IMF and MDBs, IMF, WBG, IADB

        International Taxation

        • Secretary-General Report to Finance Ministers, OECD, Buenos Aires, Argentina, July 2018

        Anti-Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

        • Report to Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, FATF, July 2018

        Financial Inclusion

        • G20 Policy Guide. Digitisation and Informality: Harnessing Digital Financial Inclusion for Individuals and MSMEs in the Informal Economy, GPFI
        • G20 Digital Identity Onboarding, WBG
        • Achieving Development and Acceptance of an Open and Inclusive Digital Payments Infrastructure, BTCA
        • Use of Alternative Data to Enhance Credit Reporting to Enable Access to Digital Financial Services by Individuals and SMEs operating in the Informal Economy, ICCR
        • Data Protection and Privacy for Alternative Data, WBG
        • G20/OECD Policy Guidance — Financial Consumer Protection Approaches in the Digital Age, OECD
        • G20/OECD INFE Policy Guidance — Digitalisation and Financial Literacy, OECD

        Sustainable Finance

        • G20 Sustainable Finance Synthesis Report — 2018, Sustainable Finance Study Group

        UK CPI slowed sharply to 0.4% yoy in Feb, core CPI down to 0.9% yoy

          UK CPI slowed sharply to 0.4% yoy in February, down from 0.7% yoy, missed expectation of 0.8% yoy. Core CPI also dropped to 0.9% yoy, down from 1.4% yoy, missed expectation of 1.4% yoy. RPI was unchanged at 1.4% yoy, matched expectations.

          PPI input came in at 0.6% mom, 2.6% yoy, versus expectation of 0.5% mom, 0.6% yoy. PPI output was at 0.6% mom, 0.9% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, -0.4% yoy. PPI core output was at 0.1% mom, 1.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.0% mom, 1.4% yoy.

          AUD/JPY breaks 80.48 key support, resuming medium term down trend for 79.22 next.

            AUD/JPY’s strong break of 80.48 key support today its worth a mention. This marks resumption of down trend form 90.29 (2017 high). AUD/JPY should now head to 61.8% retracement of 72.39 to 90.29 at 79.22 next.

            In the bigger picture, rejection from 55 week EMA affirmed the bearish case that corrective rise from 72.39 (2016 low) has completed at 90.29. Fall from 90.29 should at least be at the same degree as the rise from 72.39 to 90.29. That is, fall from sustained break of 79.22 should pave the way to retest 72.39 low.

            In between, AUD/JPY will face an import fibonacci level of 100% projection of 90.29 to 80.48 from 83.92 at 74.11. Firm break there will suggests that fall from 90.29 is likely an impulsive move. And that will increase the chance of resuming the down trend from 105.42 (2013 high) through 72.39.

            Fed Mester upgrades growth forecasts, supports gradual policy path

              Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said there’s more momentum in the economy then she anticipated. And, she’s been “upping” her forecasts, now expecting 2.75-3.00% for the year, and “probably close to 3%. She said that “the fiscal policy – the stimulus and the tax cuts – has been a positive for the economy in terms of demand growth and so that’s one of the factors.”

              Mester also support the gradual path of monetary accommodation removal. But for now, it’s hard to judge whether the fed funds rate needs to go above neutral rate. But her neutral rate, at 3%, is higher than her fellows.

              AUD/JPY a top loser as Aussie suffers triple blow

                Australian Dollar continues to trade as the worst performer for the week, suffering triple blow including risk aversion, free fall in copper price and RBA speculations. Copper’s selloff accelerated this week and broke to new low in 2023 today. There are increasing doubts on whether RBA will raise interest rate next week or opt for the second pause in a row after yesterday’s CPI data.

                AUD/JPY is currently the second biggest mover for the week, just next to EUR/AUD. Current development indicates that corrective recovery from 86.04 has concluded with three waves up to 80.76, after being rejected by channel resistance. This implies that the larger downtrend from 99.32 (2022 high) is ongoing and may be ready to resume.

                Immediate focus is now on 87.57 support. Firm break there will confirm this bearish case, and target 38.2% retracement of 59.85 to 99.32 at 84.24. Firm break there could prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection of 99.32 to 87.00 from 92.99 at 80.67. But of course, the whole development would also depend on any surprise from BoJ on Friday.

                As for Copper, with breach of 3.8229 support, whole decline from 4.3556 is likely resuming. There is risk of more downside acceleration if it cannot recovery back above 3.9197 support turned resistance soon. Next target would be 100% projection of 4.3555 to 3.8229 from 4.1743 at 3.6416, which is close to 61.8% retracement of 3.1314 to 4.3556 at 3.5990, that is, around 3.6 handle. If this extended selloff in copper materializes, it could put additional pressure on Aussie.

                AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY downside breakout after BoJ surprise

                  Yen surges broadly today after BoJ surprisingly raise 10-year yield cap from 0.25% to 0.50%. AUD/JPY finally breaks through 90.81 support decisively to resume the decline from 99.32. The strong break of a near term channel also indicates downside acceleration. Next near term target is 100% projection of 99.32 to 90.81 from 95.73 at 87.22

                  From a longer term point of view, the break of 55 week EMA and the channel support also affirms the case that AUD/JPY is corrective whole up trend from 2020 low at 59.85. Such decline from 99.32 would target 38.2% retracement of 59.85 to 99.32 at 84.24 before forming a bottom.

                  CAD/JPY also broke out of a near term expanding triangle to resume the whole fall from 110.87. Near term target of 200% projection of 110.87 to 104.55 from 110.33 at 97.69 is already met. Such decline is seen the correcting the up trend from 2020 low at 73.80. The question now is whether support from 38.2% retracement of 73.80 to 110.87 at 96.70 is strong enough to contain downside. If now, CAD/JPY accelerate further to 261.8% projection at 93.78.

                  Trump considering 60-day extension to trade truce as high level talks start

                    High level US-China trade negotiations started in the Diaoyutai state guest house in Beijing today, involving US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. Ahead of that, Mnuchin said he’s “looking forward to discussions today”. There was no elaborate and so far, there is no news leaked regarding the talks.

                    Trump indicated earlier this week that he’s willing to let the March 1 trade truce deadline slide a little bit. Trump further added that the talks are “going along very well” and the Chinese are “showing us tremendous respect.” Bloomberg reported that Trump is indeed considering to extend the deadline by 60 days, after rejecting the initial request by China of 90 days extension. But the rumor is not confirmed.

                    Yen trades generally lower on the news while Australian Dollar strengthens. But reactions from the stock markets are rather muted. Currently, Hong Kong HSI is down -0.4% and China SSE is down -0.04%.

                    Eurozone PPI down -0.3% mom, -3.4% yoy in June

                      Eurozone PPI was down -0.3% mom, -3.4% yoy in June, versus expectation of -0.2% mom, -3.1% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices decreased by -0.7% for intermediate goods and by -0.5% in the energy sector, while prices remained stable for durable consumer goods and for non-durable consumer goods, and prices increased by 0.1% for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy decreased by -0.3%.

                      EU PPI was down -0.3% mom, -2.4% yoy. The largest monthly decreases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Hungary (-2.5%), Bulgaria and Latvia (both -2.4%) and Belgium (-2.2%), while the highest increases were observed in Ireland (+4.0), Croatia (+1.3%) and Sweden (+1.2%).

                      Full Eurozone PPI release here.

                      US PMI composite dropped to 47.3, downturn gathered significant momentum

                        US PMI Manufacturing dropped from 52.0 to 49.9 in October, a 28-month low. PMI Services dropped from 49.3 to 46.6, a 2-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 49.5 to 47.3, a 2-month low.

                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                        “The US economic downturn gathered significant momentum in October, while confidence in the outlook also deteriorated sharply. The decline was led by a downward lurch in services activity, fuelled by the rising cost of living and tightening financial conditions. While output in manufacturing remains more resilient for now, October saw a steep drop in demand for goods, meaning current output is only being maintained by firms eating into backlogs of previously placed orders. Clearly this is unsustainable absent of a revival in demand, and it’s no surprise to see firms cutting back sharply on their input buying to prepare for lower output in coming months.

                        “One upside of this drop in input buying has been a further alleviation of supply constraints, which alongside the stronger dollar have helped cool price pressures in the manufacturing sector.

                        “Although price pressures picked up slightly in the service sector due to high food, energy and staff costs, as well as rising borrowing costs, increased competitive forces meant average prices charged for services grew at only a fractionally faster rate. Combined with the easing of price pressures in the goods-producing sector, this adds to evidence that consumer price inflation should cool in coming months.

                        “The surveys therefore present a picture of the economy at increased risk of contracting in the fourth quarter at the same time that inflationary pressures remain stubbornly high. However, there are clearly signs that weakening demand is helping to moderate the overall rate of inflation, which should continue to fall in the coming months, especially if interest rates continue to rise.”

                        Full release here.

                        UK PMI services dropped to 53.9, Brexit worries continue to dominate the outlook

                          UK PMI services dropped to 53.9 in September, down from 54.3 and matched expectations. The key points are “growth of business activity eases only slightly since August”, “job creation edges up to seven-month high”, “higher fuel prices lead to sharp rise in input costs”.

                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

                          “The service sector continued to report solid steady business growth in September which, alongside news of sustained expansions in both manufacturing and construction, suggests the UK economy expanded by just under 0.4% in the third quarter.

                          “The data therefore add to signs that the economy has enjoyed robust growth since the rocky start to the year, when extreme weather disrupted business.

                          “Brexit worries continue to dominate the outlook, however, keeping business optimism firmly anchored at levels which would normally be indicative of an imminent slowdown. Clarity on Brexit arrangements is therefore needed as soon as possible to help sustain growth.

                          “In a month during which oil prices spiked higher, it was no surprise to see cost pressures intensify, meaning consumer price inflation will have likely continued to run at a pace above the Bank of England’s 2% target in September, and will likely remain closer to 3% than 2% in coming months.

                          “The steady economic expansion and intensification of cost pressures will add to views that the next move in interest rates will be another hike. However, with Brexit uncertainty intensifying in recent weeks, any rise seems unlikely prior to the scheduled March 29th exit from the EU.”

                          Full release here.

                          Bitcoin hits new record but lacks follow through buying, more consolidations likely

                            Bitcoin hits new record high at 48944 earlier today but lags follow through buying so far. Upside momentum is also unconvincing with bearish divergence condition in hourly MACD. For now, we’d continue to expect some strong resistance around 50k psychological level to limit upside and bring near term correction first.

                            But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 43777 support holds. We’d expect current up trend to target 100% projection of 17629 to 41964 from 29283 at 53618 next, after completing the envisaged consolidations.

                            Fed’s Bostic: Slowing is happening, let it happen

                              Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized a patient approach in his remarks today, “I am not in a hurry to raise, I am not in a hurry to reduce either.” His comments suggest a desire for stability and observation, even in the face of an economy that’s showing signs of slowing down.

                              Delving deeper into the potential implications of the present policy rate, Bostic commented, “The current policy rate is starting to slow the economy down. How fast is it going to slow?”

                              Bostic’s perspective revolves around a measured response, allowing economic forces to play out without rapid interventions. He emphasized, “Slowing is happening. Let’s let it happen. Let’s let the world move and let’s be patient.”

                              RBA: Australia financial system well placed to manage coronavirus pandemic risks

                                RBA said Australia’s financial system faces “increased risks” from the coronavirus pandemic, but it’s “well placed to manage them”. The systems enters the challenging period in a “strong starting position”. “Capital levels are high and the banks’ liquidity position has improved considerably over recent times,” it added. “The Australian banks also enter the downturn with high profitability and very good asset performance.”

                                While most businesses were in good financial health before the pandemic, “some pockets of vulnerability were evident in the retail trade, food and accommodation services, agricultural and construction sectors.” Increase in business failures and loan arrears are “likely over the coming months”. And, there is “considerable uncertainty” around the trajectory of the economic shock and subsequent recovery

                                Full report here.

                                BoE hikes by 25bps, three members want 50bps

                                  BoE raises the Bank Rate by 25bps to 1.25%. The decision was not unanimous, with three members (Catherine Mann, Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel) voted for a 50bps hike. The MPC said it will take necessary actions to return inflation to 2% target. The scale, pace and timing of further rate hikes will reflect the assessment of economic outlook and inflation pressures.

                                  Nevertheless, it emphasized, “the Committee will be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and will if necessary act forcefully in response.”

                                  BoE also said GDP was weaker than expected in April, and it expect GDP to fall by -0.3% in Q2 as a while, weaker than anticipated at in the May Monetary Policy Report. CPI inflation’s rise to 9% was “close to expectations” at the time of the May report. CPI is expected to be over 9% “during the next few months” and rise to “slightly above 11% in October.

                                  Full statement here.

                                  Fed Evans comfortable with inflation at 2.5% for averaging

                                    Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the new average inflation targeting was “consistent with the type of outcome-based forward guidance that I advocated and that the Committee used to speed the recovery after the Great Financial Crisis.”

                                    “I expect that articulating outcome-based forward guidance for the rate path and asset purchases could be beneficial in the not-too-distant future” he added. He’d be “comfortable” with inflation going up to 2.5% “as long as we were trying to average off very low inflation rates”.

                                    Evans also said, “even with steady progress in controlling the virus and additional fiscal support, I expect it will be some time before the economy recovers from the hit it took”. He expects the unemployment rate would still be somewhere in the range of 5% to 5.5% at the end of 2022.

                                    Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said, “as long as we see the trajectory moving in ways that suggest that we are not spiraling too far away from our target, I’m comfortable just letting the economy run and letting it play out”.

                                    Ireland Coveney: Johnson deliberately set UK on collision course with EU

                                      UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman said Johnson spoke with French President Emmnauel Macron on Thursday night. Discussions moved on to Brexit that Johnson “will be setting out the same message which he delivered in the House of Commons”. That is, “the withdrawal agreement has been rejected three times by the House of Commons, it’s not going to pass, so that means reopening the withdrawal agreement and securing the abolition of the backstop.”

                                      Referring to Johnson’s statements in House, Ireland’s Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said they are “very unhelpful” tot he Brexit process. Coveney said Johnson “seems to have made a deliberate decision to set Britain on a collision course with the European Union and with Ireland in relation to the Brexit negotiations.” And, “the approach that the British prime minister seems to now be taking is not going to be the basis of an agreement, and that’s worrying for everybody.”

                                      Frenchs State Minister for European affairs Amelie de Montchalin said Macron will hold discussion with Johnson in the coming week and “What is still to negotiate is the future relationship… We have to create a working relationship and not get into games, gestures and provocations.”

                                      Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.6% yoy in Apr, core CPI at 0.7% yoy

                                        Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.6% yoy in April, up from March’s 1.3% yoy. Core CPI was finalized at 0.7% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+0.96 percentage points, pp), followed by services (+0.37 pp), food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.16 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.12 pp).

                                        EU CPI was finalized at 2.0% yoy, up from March’s 1.7% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-1.1%), Portugal (-0.1%) and Malta (0.1%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (5.2%), Poland (5.1%) and Luxembourg (3.3%). Compared with March, annual inflation fell in three Member States, remained stable in one and rose in twenty-three.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Dollar reverses gains as Trump blames manufacturing weakness on Fed

                                          Dollar reverses earlier gains after poor ISM manufacturing data. Additionally, it’s weighed down by US President Donald Trump’s attack on Fed. He criticized again that Fed and its chair Jerome Powell “have allowed the Dollar to get so strong, especially relative to ALL other currencies”. And, “our manufacturers are being negatively affected.” Also, “they are their own worst enemies, they don’t have a clue. Pathetic!”

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