Yen mildly higher as Trump-Kim summit cut short, no agreement reached

    Yen is given a mild lift on news that Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam is cut short, for unknown reason. Trump will pull ahead his scheduled media conference to 0700 GMT. And, for now, it’s unknown whether the scheduled “join agreement signing ceremony” would still be held.

    White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders confirmed that “the two leaders discussed various ways to advance denuclearization and economic driven concepts,”  but  “no agreement was reached at this time, but their respective teams look forward to meeting in the future.”

    Earlier, both sides indicated progresses in denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Kim told reports that “If I’m not willing to do that, I won’t be here right now”. Trump responded by saying “that might be the best answer you’ve ever heard.”

    ECB accounts: Main risk is tightening monetary policy too late

      In the accounts of February ECB meeting, it was argued that monetary policy in the current environment was to “ensure that inflation expectations remained firmly anchored ” and to “avoid the risk of the prevailing high inflation becoming entrenched.”

      “Caution was expressed about basing the Governing Council’s assessment on wage data which were only available with a lag.  In this environment, the main risk was no longer of tightening monetary policy too early but too late,” the accounts noted.

      It’s also argued that “an earlier monetary policy normalisation would reduce the risk of abrupt tightening later on, which could potentially be associated with high economic and social costs.”

      “In the light of the increased uncertainty and the heightened upside risks to the inflation outlook, the general view prevailed that the Governing Council should convey its increased alertness and should monitor incoming information carefully, in particular regarding second-round effects.”

      Full accounts here.

      US NFP employment grew 431k, unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%

        US non-farm payroll employment grew 431k in March, lower than expectation of 488k. Overall job growth averaged 562k per month in Q1, the same as the average monthly gain for 2021. Employment was still down by -1.6m, or -1.0%, from its prepandemic level in February 2020.

        Unemployment rate dropped from 3.8% to 3.6%, better than expectation of 3.7%. Labor force participation rate rate little changed at 62.4%.

        Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, matched expectations.

        Full release here.

        GBP/AUD breaks out from medium term range, EUR/AUD to follow

          GBP/AUD finally broke out from medium term consolidation and resume down trend this week. EUR/AUD is also following and look ready for down trend resumption too. The development came as commodity currencies generally responded better to receding expectation of another 75bps Fed hike, than European majors.

          GBP/AUD’s fall is seen as part of the down trend from 1.9218, as well as that from 2.0840 (2020 high). Both near term and medium term bearishness are maintained well with the cross capped by falling 55 day and 55 week EMA. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9218 to 1.7171 from 1.7649 at 1.6384.

          EUR/AUD also resumed the fall from 1.5396 through 1.4580 support. It’s now targeting 1.4318 low (corresponding to GBP/AUD’s 1.7171 support). Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high), and target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low).

          Fed Evans: Monetary policy is about where it can be

            Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said “monetary policy is about where it can be”. Further monetary easing would only be effective once the situation of coronavirus pandemic is cleared. “At the moment, it’s really fiscal policy that needs to be addressing this.”

            “Fiscal policy is really fundamental for getting us going,” he added. “The ball is in Congress’ court.” “It’s very important that something be done. If we go very long without somehow addressing the reduction and evaporation of that support, I think it’s going to show up in lower aggregate demand, and that would be very costly for the economy.”

            China Caixin PMI composite dropped to 28-month low, mounting downward pressure on the economy

              China Caixin PMI services dropped to 50.8 in October, down from 53.1 and missed expectation of 52.9. That’s the lowest level in 13 months.

              PMI composite output index dropped from 51.2 to 50.5, hitting a 28-month low, lowest since June 2016.

              Commenting on the China General Services PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said:

              “The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index slipped significantly to 50.8 in October from the previous month, marking its lowest level since September 2017. The subindex for new business dropped to its lowest point since November 2008, despite staying in expansionary territory, indicating an obviously weakening demand for services. The employment subindex returned to positive territory following a drop in the previous month. The subindex for prices charged by service providers also returned to positive territory, while the one for input costs dropped despite staying in positive territory, suggesting easing pressure on company profit margins. The subindex for business expectations, which gauges services providers’ confidence toward operation prospects over the next 12 months, edged down mildly.

              “The Caixin China Composite Output Index dipped to 50.5 in October from the previous month, reaching its lowest level since June 2016, indicating mounting downward pressure on China’s economy. The subindex for new orders fell, pointing to softening overall demand conditions. The employment subindex edged up despite staying in negative territory, which could possibly be due to government efforts to stabilize the labor market. The subindex for input costs remained unchanged from the month before, while the one for output charges inched up, indicating easing pressure on company profit margins — though upward price pressure remained. The subindex for future output edged down, reflecting weakening confidence among companies.”

              Full release here.

              US durable goods orders rose 1.8% in August, ex-transport orders rose 0.2%

                US durable goods orders rose 1.8% mom to USD 263.5B in August, well above expectation of 0.6% mom. Ex-transport orders rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 2.4% mom. Transportation equipment rose 5.5% mom to USD 80.8B.

                Full release here.

                US initial jobless claims dropped to 203k, trade deficit narrowed to $47.2B

                  US initial jobless claims dropped -10k to 203k in the week ending November 30, below expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average dropped -2k to 217.75k.

                  Continuing claims rose 51k to 1.693m in the week ending November 23. Four-week moving average of continuing claims was unchanged at 1.681m.

                  US trade deficit dropped -7.6% mom to USD -47.2B in October, smaller than expectation of USD -48.7B. Imports dropped -1.7% mom to USD 254.3B. Exports dropped -0.2% to USD -207.1B.

                   

                  Yuan recovers after China warns of short selling

                    Chinese Yuan stages on strong rebound today, with USD/CHN breaching below 6.9 handle. Guo Shuqing, head of China’s banking and insurance regulator warned i a speech over the weekend that “shorting the yuan will inevitably suffer from a huge loss.”

                    He criticized that Trump’s administration is worried about Yuan’s depreciation as that could reduce the impact of higher tariffs imposed on China. At the same time,developed countries have long asked for more currency flexibility. It was “ridiculous” that as Yuan’s exchange rate becomes more market oriented, some people in the US showed fear.

                    At the moment, we’re not seeing any determination by the Chinese government to block USD/CNH breaking through the psychologically important 7 handle. There might be more verbal interventions. But the aim is seen as for slowing Yuan’s decline, rather than giving it a floor. USD/CNH’s could have formed a short term top at 6.9488. But we’d expect further rise through 6.9800 high after some brief consolidations.

                    US CPI slowed to 6.0% yoy in Feb, core CPI down to 5.5% yoy

                      US CPI slowed from 6.4% yoy to 6.0% yoy in February, matched expectations. That’s also the lowest reading since September 2021. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) slowed slightly from 5.6% yoy to 5.5% yoy, matched expectations, and was the lowest since December 2021. Energy index rose 5.2% yoy while food index rose 9.5% yoy.

                      For the month, CPI rose 0.4% mom while core CPI rose 0.5% mom. Food index rose 0.4% mom and energy index decreased 0.6% mom.

                      Full CPI release here.

                      Eurozone retail sales down -0.2% mom in Jul, EU fell -0.3% mom

                        Eurozone retail sales volume fell -0.2% mom in July, matched expectations. Volume of retail trade decreased by -1.2% mom for automotive fuels, while it increased by 0.4% mom for food, drinks and tobacco and by 0.5% mom for non-food products.

                        EU retail sales decreased -0.3% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Denmark and Ireland (both -2.3%), the Netherlands (-1.4%) and Luxembourg (-1.3%). The highest increases were observed in Portugal (+1.1%), Sweden (+1.0%) and Cyprus (+0.8%).

                         

                         

                        Full Eurozone retail sales release here.

                        UK GDP grew 0.2% in Feb, 0.3% in rolling three-month period

                          UK GDP rose 0.2% mom in February, down from January’s 0.5% mom but beat expectation of 0.0% mom. Index of services rose 0.1% mom, while index of production rose 0.6% mom. Manufacturing rose 0.9% mom. Construction rose 0.4% mom. Agriculture dropped -1.3% mom.

                          Rolling three-month growth rate (Dec to Feb) was unchanged at 0.3%. Services contributed 0.29%, production 0.02% and construction -0.04%.

                          Commenting on today’s GDP figures, Head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said: “GDP growth remained modest in the latest three months. Services again drove the economy, with a continued strong performance in IT. Manufacturing also continued to recover after weakness at the end of last year with the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry, chemicals and alcohol performing well in recent months.”

                          Also from UK, in February, industrial production rose 0.5% mom, 0.1% yoy versus expectation of 0.1% mom, -0.8% yoy. Manufacturing production rose 0.9% mom, 0.6% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, -0.7% yoy. Construction output rose 0.4% mom versus expectation of -0.3% mom. Visible trade deficit widened to GBP -14.1B.

                          CAD/JPY in strong rebound as BoC in focus

                            With a light economic calendar, main focus will be on BoC monetary policy decision today. No change is expected as the central has just stopped asset purchases back in October. Also, at that statement, BoC had pushed forward the timing for the first rate hike to “sometime in the middle quarters of 2022”, compared with previous estimate of “the second half of 2022”. Given the uncertainty surrounding Omicron, the central bank will more likely keep the rhetoric unchanged than not.

                            Some previews on BoC:

                            Canadian Dollar is in strong rebound this week, partly on return of risk-on sentiment, in tandem with rebound in oil prices. CAD/JPY’s pull back from 93.00 could have completed at 87.68, after hitting 61.8% retracement of 84.65 to 93.00 at 87.83.

                            Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 89.78) will affirm this case and pave the way for retesting 93.00 high next. Also, given that CAD/JPY has defended medium term trend line support and 55 week EMA very well, the whole up trend from 73.80 could be ready to resume through 93.00 in this case.

                            Nevertheless, another fall and sustained trading below 87.83 will turn focus back to 84.65 key medium term structural support.

                            Canadian Dollar rebounds as headline CPI rose 0.5% mom, 2.0% yoy

                              Canadian Dollar rebounds notably after stronger than expected inflation data. CPI rose 0.5% mom in July versus expectation of 0.2% mom. Annually, CPI was unchanged at 2.0% yoy, above expectation of 1.7% yoy. CPI core-common rose to 1.9% yoy, up from 1.8% yoy and beat expectation of 1.8% yoy. CPI core-median slowed to 2.1% yoy, down from 2.2% yoy, matched expectations. CPI core-trim was unchanged at 2.1% yoy, above expectation of 2.0% yoy.

                              Full release here.

                              USD/CAD dips notably after the release. But it’s, after all, staying in consolidation from 1.3345. And, as long as 1.317 minor support holds, further rally through 1.3345 resistance is expected at a later stage.

                              ECB Coeure: Eurozone economy in best shape for many years

                                ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said in a speech yesterday that “the euro area economy has now enjoyed five years of uninterrupted growth”. And, GDP is “well above the levels we observed before the great financial crisis.”

                                He also pointed out that labor market has “improved notably” in recent years. Employment has risen by 9.2m since mid-2013. Unemployment rate dropped to 8.1% in August and hit the lowest level in 10years. Participation rate also rose 1.5 to 64% from a decade ago.

                                On inflation, Coeure added that “with stronger growth and rising employment, we also see a gradual build-up in price pressures”. Employee compensation have “finally started to recover” Also, he noted that as they are growing faster than the rate of inflation, many people are seeing their real incomes rising.

                                Overall, he said, it is fair to say that the euro area economy is in the best shape it has been in for many years.

                                Full speech here.

                                ADP 235k beat expectation 200k, USD/JPY slightly higher

                                  USD/JPY slightly higher as ADP job report beat expectation.

                                  ADP Feb: 235k vs exp 200K  vs prior 244k

                                  But it remains to be seen if USD/JPY could sustain gain.

                                  Italy PM Conte: European Commission has no ground to question our forecasts, we’re not a problem to EU

                                    Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte issued a formal statement in response to European Commission’s new forecasts published today.

                                    Conte criticized that the 2019 growth forecasts for Italy “underestimate the positive impact of our economic maneuver and our structural reforms.” He emphasized that with the government’s estimate, growth will increase while debt and deficit will decrease. And there is “no grounds for questioning the validity and sustainability of our forecasts.”

                                    He also said “Italy is not at all a problem for the Eurozone and European Union, but rather will contribute to the growth of the whole continent.” And, the structural reforms will “give greater impetus to the growth compared to the EU Commission.”

                                    Conte’s full statement in Italian here.

                                    As a reminder, in EU’s warning letter dated October 10, European commission has already criticized that “the macroeconomic forecast underlying Italy’s budgetary plans has not been endorsed by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), Italy’s independent fiscal monitoring institution. At first sight, this appears not to respect the explicit provision of Regulation 473/2013 (Article 4(4)) calling for the macroeconomic forecast to be produced or endorsed by an independent body.”

                                    Fed Williams: Philips curve is alive and well

                                      New York Fed President John Williams said in a speech that the Philips curve is the “connective tissue” between the Fed dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. It’s “alive and well” and remains an “empirical basis for forecasting and for monetary policy analysis.” He said he “wholeheartedly” agree that Fed “must not be complacent about inflation expectations becoming unmoored, whether at too high or too low a level.”

                                      He noted that Fed policymakers “must remain vigilant regarding a sustained takeoff in inflation.” That include the risk that “very tight labor markets could eventually lead to a resurgence of inflation and unmoor expectations, as in the 1960s.” But at the same time “We must be equally vigilant that inflation expectations do not get anchored at too low a level.” And the current “persistent undershoot of the Fed’s target risks undermining the 2 percent inflation anchor.”

                                      Full speech here.

                                      Canada retail sales rose 0.4%, ex-auto sales dropped -0.1%

                                        Canada retail sales rose 0.4% mom in July, to CAD 51.5B, matched expectations. Higher sales were reported in 6 of 11 subsectors representing 71% of retail trade. Ex-auto sales, on the other hand, dropped -0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Provincially, retail sales were up in six provinces, with the largest increases observed in Ontario and, to a lesser extent, the Prairie provinces.

                                        Full release here.

                                        New Zealand recorded first March trade deficit in 10 years

                                          New Zealand trade balance unexpectedly show NZD -86m deficit in April, versus expectation of NZD 200m surplus. That was also the first March deficit 10 years since 2008. Goods exports rose 5.8%, or NZD 265m while imports rose 14%, or NZD 612m.

                                          From Australia, PPI rose 0.5% qoq, 1.7% Yoy in Q1 versus expectation of 0.4% qoq, 1.2% yoy.

                                          NZD and AUD are the weakest major currencies this week, followed by EUR.

                                          Comparing the two, AUD/NZD is in recovery mode since early April. For now, the rise from 1.0486 is seen as a correction and could target 38.2% retracement of 1.1289 to 1.0486 at 1.0793. But we’ll start to look for topping signal around there.