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SNB Jordan: No need to change monetary policy even though EUR/CHF is back at 1.2

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    ActionForex
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    EUR/CHF continues to press the historical level at 1.2, the SNB imposed floor which was suddenly given up in 2015 and caused panic selling. Now the cross is back at this level.

    SNB Chairman Thomas said in an interview that the depreciation of the Swiss Franc is in the “right direction”. Nonetheless, the currency as a safe haven is prone to change and the situation is “fragile”. So the SNB will “remain very prudent”.

    Jordan added that “there’s no need to do anything regarding monetary policy at this moment”, as “we are convinced that the current monetary policy is still necessary.”

    Swiss Franc surges after Pakistan shot down two Indian jets in its airspace

      By
      ActionForex
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      Swiss Franc jumps notably on escalating tension between India and Pakistan. It’s reported that Pakistan said its fighter planes have shot down two Indian jets. Pakistan army spokesman Asif Ghafoor said Indian jets entered its airspace. Two Indian pilots are arrested.

      Ghafoor said in a news conference “this was not a retaliation in true sense, but to tell Pakistan has capability, we can do it, but we want to be responsible, we don’t want an escalation, we don’t want a war.” The country’s foreign ministry also said in a statement “If India is striking at so called terrorist backers without a shred of evidence, we also retain reciprocal rights to retaliate against elements that enjoy Indian patronage while carrying out acts of terror in Pakistan,”

      It come just a day after India claimed it attacked a terrorist camp in Pakistan. That’s the first time Indian jets struck inside Pakistan since 1971.

      Japan core CPI ticked up to 0.9% yoy, core-core sluggish at 0.4% yoy

        By
        ActionForex
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        Japan all item CPI rose 0.5% mom 1.3% yoy in August. Core CPI (ex-fresh food) rose 0.3% mom, 0.9% yoy. Core-core CPI (ex-fresh food and energy) rose 0.2% mom, 0.4% yoy. While core CPI ticked up from 0.8% yoy in July, it’s still way off BoJ’s target of 2%. More importantly, the core-core continued to show sluggishness in underlying inflation.

        Full release here.

        Eurozone retail sales rises 0.1% mom in Oct, EU up 0.3% mom

          By
          ActionForex
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          Eurozone retail sales volume rose 0.1% mom in October, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Volume of retail trade increased by 0.8% mom for non-food products, while it decreased by -0.8% mom for automotive fuels and by -1.1% mom for food, drinks and tobacco.

          EU retail sales rose 0.3% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Croatia (+3.1%), the Netherlands (+2.4%) and Slovakia (+1.9%). The largest decreases were observed in France (-1.0%), Belgium and Austria (both -0.8%), Spain and Portugal (both -0.4%).

          Full Eurozone retail sales release here.

          Fed to stand pat, focuses on economic projections, some previews

            By
            ActionForex
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            FOMC rate decision is the major focus today and Fed is widely expected to keep the fed funds rates unchanged at 1.50-1.75%. Fed officials have repeatedly noted that policy is in the right place for now. There won’t be any further adjustments unless there are material changes in the economic outlook. We’d expect Fed’s statement to reflect such message again.

            Attentions would, therefore, be mainly on the new economic projections, in particular, federal funds rate projections. As in September’s meeting, median rate projections were at 1.9% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020, before rising to 2.1% in 2021 and 2.4% in 2022. Current rates are already below these levels and thus, downside revisions should naturally be seen. Fed is unlikely to revise down 2020 projections to an extent that reflects another rate cut. Thus, the main market moving part would on the how fast Fed officials expect rates to climb back in 2021 and 2022.

            Here are some suggested previews:

            UK GDP shrinks -0.1% mom in Sep; Q3 growth slows sharply to 0.1% qoq

              By
              ActionForex
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              UK economy contracted by -0.1% mom in September, falling short of market expectations for 0.2% mom growth. The contraction was driven largely by declines in manufacturing output and information and communication services, with monthly services output showing no growth. Meanwhile, production sector experienced a notable -0.5% drop, primarily due to a sharp decline in manufacturing. Construction output offered a slight silver lining, rising by 0.1%.

              For Q3, GDP grew by a marginal 0.1% qoq, marking a steep slowdown from Q2’s 0.5% qoq growth and missing forecasts of 0.2% qoq. The services sector, which accounts for the largest share of economic activity, expanded by just 0.1%, while construction demonstrated resilience with a 0.8% increase. However, the production sector contracted by -0.2%, reflecting persistent weaknesses in the industrial base.

              Full UK monthly & quarterly GDP release.

              IMF Lagarde: China’s Belt and Road should only go where it’s needed and sustainable

                By
                ActionForex
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                IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde called for greater balance in the next phase of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. She borrowed from a Chinese proverb “It is easy to start a venture — the more difficult challenge is what comes next.”

                Lagarde warned that “history has taught us that, if not managed carefully, infrastructure investments can lead to a problematic increase in debt”. And, “to be fully successful, the Belt and Road should only go where it is needed. I would add today that it should only go where it is sustainable, in all aspects.”

                Also she emphasized, BRI 2.0 can also benefit from “increased transparency, open procurement with competitive bidding, and better risk assessment in project selection.”

                Full remarks here.

                Australia retail sales rose 1.3% mom in Sep, down a record -4.4% qoq in Q3

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  Australia retail sales rose 1.3% mom, 1.7% yoy in September. For the quarter, sales dropped a record -4.4% qoq.

                  Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics said: “The Delta outbreak from late June led to protracted lockdowns in many mainland jurisdictions, with the restrictions causing many retailers to close their physical stores throughout the September quarter. This resulted in the largest quarterly fall in national sales volumes ever recorded.”

                  Full release here.

                  Also released, goods and services exports dropped -6% mom to AUD 44.97B in September. Goods and services imports dropped -2% mom to AUD 32.73B. Trade surplus came in at AUD 12.24B, versus expectation of AUD 12.22B.

                  New Zealand goods exports rose 15% yoy in Jul, imports rose 35% yoy

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    New Zealand goods exports rose 15% yoy to NZD 5.8B in July. Goods imports rose sharply by 35% yoy to NZD 6.2B. Monthly trade balance was a deficit of NZD -402m, versus expectation of NZD 100m surplus.

                    Exports to all trading partners were up (China +25% yoy, Australia 22% yoy, EU + 7.4% yoy, Japan +26% yoy), except the US (down -2.9% yoy. Imports from all top trading partners were up (China +22% yoy, EU + 38% yoy, Australia + 12% yoy, US + 14% yoy, Japan +71% yoy).

                    Full release here.

                    European gas prices surge on Norway strike

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      The selloff in Euro intensifies today on the back on heightening gas crisis, which could drag the economy faster and deeper into recession.

                      Norway’s Equinor is temporarily shutting down three oil and gasfields after workers went on strike. The Norwegian Oil and Gas Association has warned that could cut the country’s daily gas exports by 13%. The country has supplied 20-25% of gas demand in Europe. The disruption comes at time as the Russia is already weaponizing its gas supply after Europe responded to its invasion of Ukraine.

                      Dutch front-month gas futures, the European benchmark, continued ti surge to highest level in four months. UK equivalent prices had jumped another 10% while Germany 2023 power is trading at record.

                      Australia CBA PMI composite tumbled to 48.8, back in contraction

                        By
                        ActionForex
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                        Australia CBA PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly to 53.9 in August, down from 54.0. However, PMI Services sharply sharply by more than -10 pts to 48.1, down from 58.2, back in contraction. PMI Composite also tumbled to 48.8, down from 57.8, back in contraction too.

                        CBA Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird said: “The decline in business activity over August is hardly surprising given the lockdown measures in Victoria. With the August composite flash PMI only modestly in contractionary territory it is highly likely that outside of Victoria private output continued to expand over the month”.

                        “The fall in employment is the inevitable consequence of shutting down large parts of the Victorian economy. Encouragingly, firms collectively retain an optimistic view on the outlook despite the setback in Victoria. Ongoing fiscal support for households and businesses remains critical to ensuring that optimism is not misplaced”.

                        Full release here.

                        Copper plummets on China outlook, may drag down AUD/USD

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Copper prices experienced a precipitous drop this week, puncturing 3.8229 support level and reaching a nadir last seen in November. This sell-off was largely catalyzed by a stark contraction in Chinese import data, which plummeted by -7.9% yoy in April. Specifically, copper imports in the first four months lagged -13% behind 2022’s pace.

                          This downward trend was exacerbated by release of China’s CPI data, which showed a meager 0.1% yoy rise in April – the lowest since February 2021. Additionally, China’s PPI took a nosedive by -3.6%, marking the steepest descent since May 2020.

                          These data, combined with recent PMI figures indicating a contraction in manufacturing in April, paint a picture of a modest post-lockdown rebound at best, with risks skewed to the downside.

                          From a technical perspective, resumption of fall from 4.3556 puts immediate focus on 100% projection of 4.3556 to 3.8229 from 4.1743 at 3.6416. Should this level provide strong support and instigate a rebound through 3.950 resistance level, there’s potential for a bullish resurgence leading to another rise above 4.3556. This would likely resume the whole rebound from 3.1314.

                          However, sustained break of 3.6416 could prompt downside acceleration towards 161.8% projection at 1.3124. It’s premature to anticipate resumption of the whole fall from 5.0332. Decline from 4.3556 might just be the second leg of the pattern from 3.1314, even in a bearish scenario. But that would depend on the downside momentum of the move.

                          Furthermore, should the bearish Copper scenario materialize with a firm break of 3.6416 Fibonacci projection, AUD/USD could be dragged down through 0.6563 support level, thereby resuming the overall decline from 0.7156.

                          Sterling jump as Brexit Party will not contest Conservative seats in election

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Sterling jumps broadly on Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage’s comment on election. He said he didn’t want anti-Brexit parties to win the upcoming election in December. Hence, his party would not contest the 317 Conservative Party seats.

                            He said, “The Brexit Party will not contest the 317 seats the Conservatives won at the last election.” “But we will do is concentrate our total effort into all of the seats that are held by the Labour Party, who have completely broken their manifesto in 2017,” he said. “We will also take on the rest of the remainer parties.”

                            Fed chair Jerome Powell press conference live stream

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                              ActionForex
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                              Eurozone industrial output rises 0.3% mom, energy drag offsets goods gains

                                By
                                ActionForex
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                                Eurozone industrial production rose 0.3% mom in July, missing expectations of a 0.5% mom gain. Output was supported by intermediate goods (+0.5%), capital goods (+1.3%), and consumer goods, with durable and non-durable production up 1.1% and 1.5% respectively. However, a sharp -2.9% decline in energy output capped overall growth.

                                Across the wider EU, industrial production increased 0.2% mom on the month. Croatia led gains with a 2.6% rise, followed by Hungary and Slovenia at 2.1% each, while steep drops were recorded in Estonia (-5.5%), Malta (-4.7%), and Sweden (-3.9%).

                                Full Eurozone industrial production release here.

                                ECB’s Lagarde suggests potential summer rate cut, but maintains reserved stance

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  In an interview at Bloomberg House in Davos, ECB President Christine Lagarde said “it’s likely” for a rate cut in the summer, but added that she has to be “reserved”. She emphasized ECB’s data-dependent approach and acknowledged the prevailing uncertainty and certain indicators that are yet to reach desired levels.

                                  Lagarde expressed concern regarding market expectations for aggressive rate cuts, labeling them as a “distraction” from the ECB’s primary goal of combating inflation. She expressed concern that if market anticipations are misaligned with reality, they could hinder ECB’s inflation control efforts.

                                  Reiterating the ECB’s commitment to achieving sustainable inflation of 2% over the medium term, Lagarde asserted, “We are on the right path, we are directionally towards the 2%, but unless and until we are confident that it is sustainably at 2% — medium term — and we have the data to support it, I’m not going to shout victory.”

                                  G20: Global growth remains low, downside risks persist

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    In the joint communique of the G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting at Saudi Arabia over the weekend, it’s noted that “global economic growth remains slow and downside risks to the outlook persist, including those arising from geopolitical and remaining trade tensions, and policy uncertainty.” The group also pledged to “will enhance global risk monitoring, including of the recent outbreak of COVID-19. We stand ready to take further action to address these risks.”.

                                    Separately, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said, “in our current baseline scenario, announced policies are implemented and China’s economy would return to normal in the second quarter… As a result, the impact on the world economy would be relatively minor and short-lived.” She added, “but we are also looking at more dire scenarios where the spread of the virus continues for longer and more globally, and the growth consequences are more protracted”.

                                    US personal income rose 0.4% mom, spending rose 0.4% mom, core PCE accelerated to 1.9% yoy

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      US personal income rose 0.4% mom in March, below expectation of 0.4%. Personal spending rose 0.4%, in-line with consensus. Headline PCE accelerated to 2.0% yoy in March, up from 1.7% yoy in February, matched expectations. Core PCE accelerated to 1.9% yoy, up from 1.6% yoy, also met expectations.

                                      From Canada, IPPI rose 0.8% mom in March, above expectation of 0.2% mom. RMPI rose 2.1% mom, above expectation of 0.6%.

                                      Also German CPI was unchanged at 1.6% yoy in April, above expectation of slowing to 1.5% yoy.

                                      Dollar is steady after the release. Firm, but limited below Friday’s low except versus Sterling.

                                      Australian retail sales grow 0.3% mom in March, but volumes flat in Q1

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Australian retail sales rose by 0.3% mom in March to AUD 37.28 billion, slightly below expectations of 0.4% growth.

                                        According to the ABS, food-related spending, particularly in supermarkets and grocery stores, was the main contributor to the uptick, with food and miscellaneous retailing both rising 0.7%. Clothing-related sales also edged higher, but household goods retailing was flat.

                                        However, the broader trend is subdued, with retail sales volumes—adjusted for inflation—essentially flat over Q1. ABS Head of Business Statistics Robert Ewing noted that the lack of growth reflects weaker household appetite for discretionary goods, following a boost in spending late last year due to heavy promotions.

                                        Full Australia retail sales release here.

                                        EU laid pre-conditions of lockdown exit, WHO suggests two-week staged approach

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urged members stage to take a “gradual approach” in exiting the coronavirus lockdown. And “every action should be continuously monitored”. Also, she laid down three main pre-conditions for the exit: 1. Significant decrease in the spread of the coronavirus 2. Sufficient health system capacity 3. Adequate surveillance and monitoring capacity

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                                          Separately, the WHO said lifting of lockdowns should be down in stages of two weeks. WHO said: “To reduce the risk of new outbreaks, measures should be lifted in a phased, step-wise manner based on an assessment of the epidemiological risks and socioeconomic benefits of lifting restrictions on different workplaces, educational institutions, and social activities… Ideally there would be a minimum of 2 weeks (corresponding to the incubation period of COVID-19) between each phase of the transition, to allow sufficient time to understand the risk of new outbreaks and to respond appropriately.”

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