Eurozone CPI confirmed at 1.4%, core at 0.8%

    Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.4% yoy in March, unrevised, down from 1.5% yoy in February. Core CPI was finalized at 0.8% yoy, unchanged from February’s reading. EU28 inflation was confirmed at 1.6% yoy.

    The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+0.52 percentage points, pp), followed by services (+0.51 pp), food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.34 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.04 pp).

    EUR/USD attempts to rally earlier today but fails to take out 1.1324 resistance. It’s staying in range after the releases.

    UK CPI unchanged at 1.9%, core at 1.8%, Sterling steady

      In March, UK CPI was unchanged at 1.9% yoy, below expectation of 2.0% yoy. Core CPI was also unchanged at 1.8% yoy, below expectation of 1.9% yoy. RPI slowed to 2.4% yoy, down from 2.5% yoy and miss expectation of 2.6% yoy.

      PPI input dropped -0.2% mom, rose 3.7% yoy, below expectation of 0.3% mom, 3.9% yoy. PPI output rose 0.3% mom, 2.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 2.1% yoy. PPI output core rose 0.02% mom, 2.2% yoy versus expectation o f0.1% mom, 2.2% yoy..

      House price index rose 0.6% yoy in February, well below expectation of 1.3% yoy.

      EUR/GBP rises mildly today mainly due to Euro’s strength. Sterling’s reaction to the data set elsewhere is muted.

      China Q1 GDP grew 6.4%. Production, sales, investment rebound. But no one cares except AUD

        Another batch of data from China released today surprised on the upside. GDP growth came in at 6.4% yoy in Q1, unchanged from prior quarter and beat expectation of 6.3% yoy.

        In March, industrial production rose strongly by 8.5% ytd yoy, accelerated from 5.3% and beat expectation of 5.6%. Retail sales rose 8.7% ytd yoy, up fro 8.2% and beat expectation of 8.3%. Fixed asset investment rose 6.3% ytd yoy, up from 6.1% yoy and matched expectation of 6.3%. Jobless rate also improved from 5.3% to 5.2%.

        Recent data from China continued to paint the picture of stabilization in slowdown, and raised hope that recovery is on the way. That’s an important condition for improvement in global outlook.

        Australian Dollar jumps notably after the release. In particular, EUR/AUD drops through 1.5721 key support and whole decline from 1.6765 might be resuming.

        However, reactions elsewhere are rather muted. At the time of writing, China Shanghai SSE is just flat. Hong Kong HSI is even down -0.23%.

        New Zealand CPI slowed to 1.5%, solidifies need for imminent RBNZ easing

          New Zealand Dollar drops sharply after worse than expected consumer inflation data. CPI rose 0.1% qoq in Q1, below expectation of 0.3% qoq. Annually, CPI slowed to 1.5% yoy, down from 1.9% yoy and missed expectation of 1.7% yoy. Tradeable CPI dropped -0.4% yoy while non-tradeable CPI rose 2.8% yoy.

          CPI has been persistently weak and remained below mid-point of RBNZ’s 1-3% target range for the eight consecutive quarter. Indeed, CPI has only breached 2% level once in Q1 2017 (2.2%) since 2011. Yesterday, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr noted that “possibilities of first quarter inflation numbers being undershot have already being factored in the RBNZ’s dovish bias”. The downside surprise is giving Orr an even worse picture and solidifies the imminent need for policy easing.

          NZD/USD drops sharply to as low as 0.6666 after the release, then recovered on strong Chinese data. Nevertheless, break of 0.6713 support confirms resumption of whole decline from 0.6938. Failure to sustain above falling 4 hour 55 EMA EMA also affirms near term bearishness.

          NZD/USD should now be on track to 0.6551 support next.

          Japan exports slumped in March, raised concerns of Q1 GDP contraction

            In March, in trend terms, Japan’s exports dropped -2.4% yoy to JPY 7.20T. Imports rose 1.1% yoy to JPY 6.67T. Trade surplus came in at JPY 0.53T, up from prior month’s JPY 0.33T. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports dropped -1.0% yoy to JPY 6.61T. Imports rose 2.1% yoy to JPY 6.78T. Trade deficit was at JPY -0.18T.

            Exports to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, dropped -9.4% yoy, reversing from 5.6% growth in February. Exports to Asia as a whole dropped -5.5% yoy, a fifth straight month of decline. The slump in exports could drag down capital expenditure and private consumption growth . And it raised concerns that the economy contracted again in Q1.

            Full release here.

            Amamiya: BoJ mindful of risks including financial imbalances

              BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said the central bank is “ready to respond” financial crisis threatens the stability of the banking system.

              He pointed to experience in the late 1980s, and noted “one of the factors that led to Japan’s asset-inflated bubble was the fact we kept monetary policy easy even as the economy continued to expand”. Hence, “the BOJ must be mindful of the potential risks to the economy and prices, including financial imbalances,”

              Regarding monetary policy, Amamiya said “we’re ready to respond if financial problems have a big impact on the economy.”

              US raised very large trade deficit with Japan during trade talks

                The US Trade Representative issued a statement regarding the meeting of USTR Robert Lighthizer and Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister Toshimitsu Motegi on April 15-16 in Washington.

                In the statement, it’s noted that US and Japan “discussed trade issues involving goods, including agriculture, as well as the need to establish high standards in the area of digital trade”. Also, US raised its “very large trade deficit with Japan – $67.6 billion in goods in 2018.” Both sides agreed to meet again in the “near future to continue these talks”.

                Motegi said yesterday that no agreement has been made. But he hoped to reach a “good result” on the talks “at an early stage.” There will be further discussions next week before the US-Japan summit. Meanwhile, discussions regarding exchange rate would be left to finance ministers.

                US NAHB index rose to 63, industrial production dropped -0.1%; Canada manufacturing sales dropped -0.2%

                  US NAHB housing market index rose to 63 in April, up from 62, but missed expectation of 64. Industrial production dropped -0.1% mom in March, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Capacity utilization dropped to 78.8%.

                  From Canada, manufacturing sales dropped -0.2% mom in February, below expectation of -0.1% mom. International securities transactions dropped to CAD 12.05B in February, versus expectation of CAD 27.34B.

                  USD/CAD weakens mildly after the releases. But there is no sign of breakout from recent range from 1.3467 yet.

                  Gold breaks 1280, confirming medium term bearish reversal?

                    Gold drops notably today to as low as 1278.29 so far. Immediate focus is back on 1276.76 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1160.17 to 1346.17 at 1275.45).

                    Sustained break of 1275.45/1276.76 should confirm completion of whole rise from 1160.17. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1234.42 and below.

                    Nevertheless, break of 1290.10 minor resistance will argue that 1275.45/1276.76 is defended again. Another rise would be seen to extend the consolidation pattern from 1346.71.

                    OECD: China at a crossroad, should lower external and internal barriers

                      In an OECD survey report, Deputy Secretary-General Ludger Schuknecht, warned that “China is at a crossroads, facing serious domestic and external challenges to maintaining its strong position over the long-term.”. He urged that “policy should seek to ensure a better functioning economy that delivers stable and inclusive growth for all.”

                      OECD said China should aim to “further lower import tariffs and dismantle non-tariff barriers and barriers on the entry and conduct of foreign firms, in particular requirements to form joint ventures or transfer technology.” Also, “ongoing fiscal stimulus should avoid directing credit to state-owned enterprises and local governments”

                      Additionally, there are :wide scope to improve efficiency across the economy, notably by reducing the internal barriers that hinder product market competition and labour mobility.”. And measures include “stronger protection of intellectual property rights; gradual removal of implicit guarantees to state-owned enterprises, allowing them to default; and reduction of state ownership in commercially-oriented, non-strategic sectors.”

                      Full release here.

                      German ZEW: Sentiments improved but current situation deteriorated considerably

                        German ZEW Economic Sentiment improved to 3.1 in April, up from -3.6 and beat expectation of 0.5. Current Situation index, however, dropped to 5.5, down from 11.1 and missed expectation of 8.5. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Rose to 4.5, up from -2.5. Eurozone Current Situation index dropped -6.6 pts to 13.2.

                        ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach: “The slight improvement recorded by the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is largely based on the hope that the global economic environment will develop less poorly than previously assumed. The postponement of the Brexit deadline may also have contributed to buoy the economic outlook. By contrast, the latest figures regarding incoming orders and industrial production in the German industry point to a rather weak economic development.”

                        Full release here.

                        EUR/USD weakens after the release.

                        UK unemployment rate unchanged at 3.9%, wage growth matched expectations, Sterling steady

                          UK unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9% in February, matched expectations. Average weekly earnings including bonus rose 3.4% 3moy, matched expectation. Average weekly earnings ex-bonus rose 3.4% 3moy, also matched expectations. Claimant count rose 28.3k in March, above expectation of 20.0k.

                          Full release here.

                          GBP/USD is steady after the release, extending recent sideway consolidation.

                          EU Tusk: Everyone is exhausted with Brexit

                            European Council President Donald Tusk “on both sides of the Channel, everyone, including myself, is exhausted with Brexit, which is completely understandable.” However, he emphasized it’s not an excuse to say “let’s get it over with, just because we’re tired.”

                            He explicitly responded to a leader of a EU state who had warned “dreamers” not to think “Brexit could be reversed”. Tusk said: “At this rather difficult moment in our history, we need dreamers and dreams. We cannot give in to fatalism. At least I will not stop dreaming about a better and united Europe.”

                            European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker said it was not his working assumption that Brexit could be reversed or extended beyond a new Oct. 31 deadline.

                            RBNZ Orr: Q1 inflation undershot “already” factored in dovish bias

                              RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said today that monetary easing bias remains in place for now. And softer economic conditions in US, Europe and China are having a role in the dovish tone.

                              Also, Orr added that “possibilities of first quarter inflation numbers being undershot have already being factored in the RBNZ’s dovish bias”. The comments came just ahead of New Zealand’s CPI release tomorrow. Headline inflation is expected to slow from 1.9% yoy to 1.7% yoy in Q1.

                              NZD/USD is a touch lower after the comments. However, Orr said that inflation undershot was already factored in. Thus, there is prospect of a mild rebound should tomorrow’s CPI release meets expectations.

                              AUD tumbles as RBA said lower interest rates could be expected

                                Australian Dollar tumbles sharply in Asian session after dovish RBA minutes set out the conditions for a rate cut. It’s seen as another step towards more monetary easing ahead, as markets are expecting two cuts this year.

                                The most important part of the minutes is that RBA confirmed there could be a need for rate cut. It said “a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to support the economy through a depreciation of the exchange rate and via reducing required interest payments on borrowing, freeing up cash for other expenditure”. Also, in a scenario where ” inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up”, “a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate in these circumstances”.”

                                Nevertheless, “members agreed that there was not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy”. It suggested RBA would wait-and-see, likely at least through Q2.

                                Suggested readings on RBA.

                                Fed Rosengren prefers inflation range targeting

                                  Ahead of a broad review on monetary policy framework, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said he’d prefer a range targeting approach on inflation. That is, Fed could be forced to accept inflation below 2% during recessions. On the other hand, Fed should commit to achieve above 2% inflation in good times. For example a range of 1.5-2.5%.

                                  Rosengren echoed other platemakers’ comment that the current 2% target is “symmetric”. But in practice, people saw that figure as a “ceiling”. He added, “even though we’re only missing by a little bit it actually does matter if you miss by a little bit on a regular basis.”

                                  Evans: Fed should embrace inflation above 2%, 50% of time

                                    Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Monday that Fed’s policy has been “successful” in achieving the maximum employment mandate. It’s “less successful” regarding the inflation objective. And to fix this, he added, “Fed must be willing to embrace inflation modestly above 2 percent 50 percent of the time.” For him, he would “communicate comfort” with core inflation at 2.5%, as long as there is “no obvious upward momentum” while the path back to 2% can be “well managed”.

                                    For now, Evans is still expecting that “some further rate increases may be appropriate over time”. He expects growth to be at around 1.75-2.00% this year. Still he maintained that current patient stance is appropriate given the “heightened uncertainty” including US-China trade war. He also emphasized that “if activity softens more than expected or if inflation and inflation expectations run too low, then policy may have to be left on hold – or perhaps even loosened – to provide the appropriate accommodation to obtain our objectives.”

                                    CAD dives on BoC Business Outlook Survey, global trade headwinds affecting firms’ operations

                                      Canadian Dollar tumbles notably after poor results of BoC’s Business Outlook Survey. Business Outlook Survey indicator dropped from 2.31 in Q4 to -0.64 in Q1. It suggested “a softening in business sentiment.”Also, responses to several BOS survey questions moved below their historical averages.

                                      BoC also warned that global trade headwinds and geopolitical tensions are affecting firms’ operations.

                                      • Several respondents cited negative impacts on their outlooks from US policy changes and related uncertainty.
                                      • Some firms reported impediments to their export sales resulting from US protectionism.
                                      • Other respondents reported that US tax cuts and regulatory differences reduce their competitiveness vis-Ă -vis US firms.
                                      • Several firms noted cost increases due either directly or indirectly to tariffs, notably those on steel and aluminum as well as those associated with Canadian countermeasures.
                                      • Some firms noted that the US–China trade dispute weighs indirectly on their business.

                                      Overall, respondents citing negative impacts generally have weaker foreign sales expectations, investment intentions and hiring plans than unaffected businesses.

                                      Full report here.

                                      US Empire State manfacturing rose to 10.1, but future conditions dropped to 3-year low

                                        US Empire State manufacturing general business conditions index rose 10.1 in April, up from 3.7 and beat expectation of 8. 33% of respondents reported improved conditions, 23% said worsened. New orders index rose 5pts to 7.5. Shipments rose 1pts to 8.6. However, index for future business conditions dropped a massive -17 pts to 12.4, lowest in more than three years.

                                        New York Fed noted in the release that growth picked up somewhat but remained fairly subdued. New orders rose slightly, and shipments continued to grow modestly. Delivery times and inventories both increased. Labor market indicators pointed to ongoing employment gains and a small increase in hours worked. The prices paid and prices received indexes moved lower, pointing to a slowing in both input price increases and selling price increases. Indexes assessing the six month outlook suggested that firms were much less optimistic about future business conditions than last month.

                                        Full release here.

                                        US asking China to shift tariffs from privileged agriculture to other industries

                                          According to a Bloomberg report, US is asking China to shift some tariffs away from agricultural goods to other products. And China is in consideration.

                                          The request came as Trump didn’t want to lift punitive tariffs on China even when a trade deal is made. Yet, Bloomberg said Trump want to “sell any eventual trade deal as a win for farmers ahead of the 2020 election”. But there was no explanation on why the agricultural industry has this special privilege over others. And there is no indications on which industries are going to take the burden, and why.

                                          It’s also noted that the shift could make it easier for China to ramp up its purchases of US agricultural goods as part of the trade deal. But again, there is no details on whether China will cut imports from others countries, and who they will buy less from.

                                          At this point, we’ll treat this as a speculation as no one from USTR nor MOFCOM have responded. And we don’t expect them to.