SNB Jordan: There room for rate cut, balance sheet and interventions

    SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said over the week end that currently, Swiss Franc’s exchange rates were “still highly valued”. But “there is no reason to change monetary policy”. However, he also emphasized SNB has room “to lower interest rates further”, “to use the balance sheet” and “for interventions in foreign exchange markets”.

    He also added that profits of the banking system have been relatively stable despite SNB’s negative interest rates. Though, it’s still improtant to keep an eye on risks as many major central banks set low or negative interest rates.

    ECB Draghi warns of external headwinds, Praet expects stabilization

      ECB President Mario Draghi said “the outlook for the euro area fundamentally depends on global growth momentum”. And he warned “the escalation of trade tensions, the downturn in global manufacturing and a turn in the tech cycle have increased the euro area’s external headwinds.”

      ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet, on the other hand, sounds relatively more optimistic. He said “there are good reasons to say that the economy is going to stabilize, it’s probably stabilizing somewhere in the second quarter … That’s our scenario and I still believe in that scenario.”

      On market pricing, Praet said “the OIS curve that came after the Watchers’ conference in Frankfurt is something that fits well with how we think financial conditions should be today”. Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) curve suggests that money markets are not pricing in a rate hike from ECB for the next 21 months.

      IMF: US-China trade agreement should be consistent with multilateralism

        Changyong Rhee, director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific department warned that if, contrary to market expectations, there is no US-China trade agreement reached, “the market can react quite negatively because they already factor in some agreement will be reached.”

        He also noted that “our general view is that trade tension has had a negative impact on Asia”. But that’s “mostly still through the financial market … rather than trade flows directly.” However, “as trade tensions escalate more, we are starting to see the trade flows affected.”

        And, he urged that “the agreement also should be consistent with multilateralism rather than bilateralism between the United States and China.”

        UK Hammond: Another Brexit referendum is very likely to be put to parliament at some stage

          UK Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond said new referendum was “a proposition that could and, on all the evidence, is very likely to be put to parliament at some stage”.

          But any new referendum could probably take six months to organize. Thence, time would be tight even though Brexit date is delayed to October 31.

          Also, Hammond added: “The government’s position has not changed. The government is opposed to a confirmatory referendum and therefore we would not be supporting it.”

          Bundesbank Weidmann: German growth plausible to be just 0.8% this year

            Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann warned that German economy could slow sharply in 2019. Growth rate could eventually be lower than 1%. He pointed to IMF’s new projections of just 0.8% for this year and noted that’s entirely plausible. It’s just half the rate of 1.6% Bundesbank projected back in December.

            Weidmann also added, “Fiscal policy, as the minister (Finance Minister Olaf Scholz) said, is already expansionary in Germany and we estimate the impact of fiscal policy on GDP for this year to be between one quarter to one half percentage point.”

            China import from US dropped massive -31.8% in Q1, healthy trade growth with EU

              Latest trade data from China showed that total trade between US and China shrank -15.4% in Q1, comparing with last year, as result of trade war. In particular, imports from US dropped a massive -31.8% yoy in the quarter. On the other hand, imports from Canada jumped 25.9% yoy and imports from Brazil surged 23.8% yoy. Overall trade growth with EU remained healthy.

              China trade surplus widened to USD 32.6B in March, well above expectation of USD 8.1B. Exports jumped 14.2% yoy in USD 198.7B, well above expectation of 7.7% yoy. Imports, however, dropped -7.6% yoy to USD 166.0B, much weaker than expectation of -0.1% yoy. Cumulative from January to March, expects rose 1.4% yoy to USD 551.8B. Imports dropped -4.8% yoy USD 475.4B. Trade surplus was at USD 76.3B.

              From January to March cumulative, in USD term, with EU:

              • Total trade rose 5.9% yoy to USD 162.6B
              • Exports to EU rose 8.8% yoy to USD 97.8B.
              • Imports from EU rose 1.8% yoy to USD 64.8B.
              • Trade surplus was at USD 33.0B.

              With US:

              • Total trade dropped -15.4% to USD 119.6B.
              • Exports to US dropped -8.5% to USD 91.1B.
              • Imports from USD dropped -31.8% to USD 28.5B.
              • Trade surplus was at USD 62.6B

              With AU

              • Total trade rose 5.7% to USD 37.9B.
              • Exports to AU rose 9.7% to USD 11.0B.
              • Imports from AU rose 4.1% to USD 26.9B.
              • Trade deficit was at USD 15.9.

              Full set of data by country here.

              German economy ministry: Less dynamic, but still upward trend

                German Economy Ministry said in the April Economic Report today that the economy continues to show a “mixed picture”. Service and construction are “expanding strongly”. However, “global oriented manufacturing is still in a weak phase”.

                The reported note that both global industrial production and world trade were on the decline at the end of 2018. And this “continued in January 2019 in industrial production. Trade had a “slightly recovery” but remained below last year’s level.

                PMI was at lowest since June 106 while Ifo reflected a “gloomier mood”. And, “in light of the indicators and the accumulation of global risks, international organizations are predicting a less dynamic, but still upward, global trend.”

                Also, “industrial economy is likely to remain subdued in the face of declining foreign demand and high international risks.”

                Full report here.

                IMF Gopinath: Auto tariffs could be more damaging to US-China trade war

                  IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath warned that auto tariffs could be more damaging to the world economy than US-China trade war. She said on the sidelines of IMF and World Bank annual meeting, “we are concerned about what auto tariffs would do to the global economy at a time when we are more in the recovery phase.”

                  Trade conflicts of the US and others, including China, EU, Canada and Japan could spill over into the auto sector. And that could have severe damage to the global manufacturing supply chains, She warned, “that would actually be far more costly for the world economy than just the U.S.-China trade tensions that we had.”

                  In the US, the Commerce Department has already submitted Section 232 national security report on auto imports earlier this year. Trump will have until May 17 to decide whether he wants to extend punitive tariffs from steal to auto, and from rival in China to allies in EU, Canada and Japan.

                  Japan-US trade talks to start next week for exchanging views

                    Japan Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi announced today that the first round of Japan-US trade talks will start next week on April 15-16 in Washington. He said he’d intend to exchange view frankly with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. It’s believed that a core topic is Japan’s near USD 70B trade surplus, with nearly two-thirds from auto exports.

                    Finance Minister Taro Aso reiterated Japan’s intention to “further expand trade and investment between” between the two countries, in a “mutually beneficial manner”. He also pointed to the joint statement made last September. However, Japan has been very clear on its intention to defend the multilateral trade pact TPP that it leads, and US quitted under Trump. Hence, no matter what Japan is going to offer to the US, they won’t be something better than what’s offered to TPP partners.Ja

                    Fed Kashkari: We should really live the symmetric inflation target

                      Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that Fed “officially have a symmetric target” on inflation. Actual inflation has “averaged around 1.7%” for the past seven years, which was below the 2% target. Therefore, “if we were at 2.3% for several years that shouldn’t be concerning.” He also emphasized that “we should really live the symmetric target and not tap the brakes prematurely.” Thus, “this is why I’ve been arguing for more accommodative monetary policy.

                      Kashkari also said he’s “concerned” with yield curve inversion. However, he added: “I don’t necessarily believe it causes recessions but i believe it’s giving feedback that monetary policy is close to neutral today. We don’t want contractionary monetary policy unless we have good reason. We should be careful not to end the expansion.”

                      BoJ Kuroda: Global economy will recover in second half of the year

                        BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that global economy would recover in the second half as he arrived for the G20 finance ministers meeting in Washington yesterday. He said, “our baseline scenario is that the global economy will recover in the latter half of this year, and achieve sufficiently high growth next year.”

                        Also, he defended rule-based multilateral trade system. Kuroda warned that “protectionism benefits neither the United States nor China.” He urged “both countries, as well as each G20 economy, must make efforts to solve problems based on the understanding that free trade under World Trade Organization rules has brought enormous benefits to the global economy.”

                        Fed Clarida: Baseline economic projections see growth somewhat above trend in 2019

                          Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said “the current economic expansion almost certainly will become the longest on record”. But ” incoming data have revealed signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing somewhat from 2018’s robust pace”. Also, “prospects for foreign economic growth have been marked down, and important international risks, such as Brexit, remain.” On inflation, core PCE, a “better gauge of underlying inflation pressures”, has been muted. And, “some indicators of longer-term inflation expectations remain at the low end of a range” of price-stability.

                          Clarida reiterated that federal funds rate is now “in the broad range of estimates of neutral”. The baseline economic projections see growth in 2019 “running somewhat above” trend and core PCE inflation remains near 2%. Thus, Fed “can be patient as we assess what adjustments, if any, will be appropriate to the stance of monetary policy.

                          Clarida’s full remarks.

                          Fed Bullard: Upcoming policy adjustments no longer part of normalization campaign

                            St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said if economy evolves as expected, current interest rate will be appropriate through 2019. Balance sheet reduction program will end this autumn. “These events mark the end of monetary policy normalization in the U.S.”

                            Bullard said the normalization campaign has been “largely successful”. Nominal short-term interest rates have been raised from near-zero levels, and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet has been reduced as the economic expansion has continued.

                            Going forward, the FOMC may elect to adjust monetary policy going forward. However, Bullard said that will not be “part of an ongoing normalization strategy”. Adjustments will be “in response to incoming macroeconomic data”.

                            On yield curve inversion, Bullard said “yield curve information is not infallible, and inversion could be driven by other factors unrelated to future macroeconomic performance”.”Nevertheless, the empirical evidence is relatively strong. Therefore, both policymakers and market professionals need to take the possibility of a meaningful and sustained yield curve inversion seriously.”

                            Press release on Bullard’s presentation.

                            Fed Williams: It’s a healthy economy from pure monetary policy perspective

                              New York Fed President John Williams said in a speech that US is “closing in on the longest economic expansion on record, unemployment is at historically low levels, and inflation is close to our 2 percent target “. And, from a “pure monetary policy perspective”, this is a “healthy economy”.

                              However, he also noted that Fed’s monetary policy decisions ” don’t affect the kinds of jobs that are created or who benefits from growth.”

                              William’s full speech here.

                              UK PM May urged Mps to use Easter recess for Brexit reflections

                                In the parliament, Prime Minister Theresa May insisted that UK can still pass the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement by May 22 to avoid taking part in European parliament elections. And it can still leave EU by the end of next month. May also emphasized the important of cross-party negotiations with Labours and she hoped to reach an agreement in the coming days.

                                May urged MPs to “use the opportunity of the recess to reflect on the decisions that will have to be made swiftly on our return after Easter. And let us then resolve to find a way through this impasse.”

                                US initial jobless claims dropped to 196k, another lowest since 1969

                                  US initial jobless claims dropped -8k to 196k in the week ending April 6, below expectation of 210k. It’s also the lowest since October 4, 1969, which it was 193k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -7k to 207k, lowest since December 6 1969.

                                  Continuing claims dropped -13k to 1.713M. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -11k to 1.735M.

                                  Also from the US, headline PPI accelerated to 2.2% yoy in March, well above expectation of 1.9% yoy. Core PPI slowed to 2.4% yoy, matched expectations.

                                  CBI Fairbairn” Businesses not dancing in the streets for Brexit delay

                                    CBI Director General Carolyn Fairbairn, criticized that the Brexit delay till October 31 only provides “brief relief” for businesses. And they wouldn’t be “dancing in the streets”. Instead, it will be quickly followed by ” frustration, exasperation, we’re still here.”

                                    She added that “our huge hope off the back of this six-month reprieve is that it’s used to set up a process and it’s not just people locked in a room on their own which we’ve seen in the last few days.”

                                    US Mnuchin on China trade talks: Both sides agreed to set up enforcement offices

                                      In a CNBC interview yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin talked about some concrete progress in US-China trade negotiations, including the core issue of enforcement.

                                      Mnuchin said: “We’ve pretty much agreed on an enforcement mechanism. We’ve agreed that both sides will establish enforcement offices that will deal with the ongoing matters. This is something both sides are taking very seriously… We are really focused on the execution of the documents.”

                                      Nevertheless he refused to put a timeline of the talks. “We are hopeful we can do this quickly, but we are not going to set an arbitrary deadline,” Mnuchin said. “If we can complete this agreement, this will be the most significant changes to the economic relationship between the U.S. and China in really the last 40 years. The opening of the Chinese economy will be a tremendous opportunity with structural changes that will benefit U.S. workers and U.S. companies.”

                                      Chinese commerce ministry confirmed today that senior trade negotiators from both countries held phone calls earlier this week. Gao Feng, the ministry’s spokesman said “in the next step, both trade teams will keep in close communication, and work at full speed via all sorts of effective channels to proceed with negotiations.”

                                      ECB SPF: Economists downgrade eurozone growth and inflation forecasts for 2019 and 2020

                                        In the latest ECB survey for Q2, professional forecasters revised down growth, inflation and core inflation forecasts for both 2019 and 2020. Inflation are projected to be below ECB’s 2% target over the whole forecast horizon. Also, the reported noted that “probability distributions continued to indicate relatively high uncertainty around expected inflation in two years’ time.”

                                        On growth, “respondents considered the current level of uncertainty to be very high and to be having an economic impact, mainly via companies’ investment decisions.” Also “risks to the forecasts for real GDP growth remained to the downside.” The most cited downside risks was “potential impact of a hard Brexit. Many respondents refer to “further escalation of trade conflict between US and China, an the apparent slowdown in China”. “Very few”mentioned upside risks.

                                        HICP inflation forecasts (previous at Q1 2019):

                                        • 2019 at 1.4% (down from 1.5%)
                                        • 2020 at 1.5% (down from 1.6%)
                                        • 2021 at 1.6% (down from 1.7%)
                                        • Longer term at 1.8% (unchanged)

                                        HICP core inflation forecast:

                                        • 2019 at 1.2% (down from 1.3%)
                                        • 2020 at 1.4% (down from 1.5%)
                                        • 2021 at 1.6% (unchanged)
                                        • Longer term at 1.7% (unchanged)

                                        GDP growth forecast:

                                        • 2019 at 1.2% (down from 1.5%)
                                        • 2020 at 1.4% (down from 1.5%)
                                        • 2021 at 1.4% (unchanged)
                                        • Longer term at 1.4% (down from 1.5%).

                                        Asian update: GBP lifted by Brexit extension, AUD digests gains, EUR and USD mixed

                                          Asian markets are in mild risk aversion today as dragged down by pull back in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. But such sentiments is not much reflected in the currency markets, except that Australian Dollar retreats broadly after this week’s rally run. Sterling is one of the strongest for today as UK was granted “medium” flexible Brexit delay till October 31. But still it’s unsure how the government could achieve the needed consensus in the parliament to get a withdrawal agreement through. More time might just mean more torture and fatigue.

                                          Dollar is mixed for now after FOMC minutes solidified Fed’s patience stance. It’s a consensus among policy makers Fed will stand pat for the rest of the year. Inflation is close to target without little sign of heating up. Fed indeed has a lot of room to keep interest rates at current level for longer. At the same time, several members noted their openness to rate cut should development warrants it. It could depend on how the risks play out. Euro is mixed too. The dovish ECB meeting yesterday triggered some knee jerk reactions. But the common currency quickly found its footing.

                                          For the week, Aussie is the far the strongest one, followed by Yen. While risk aversion is not apparent, both seem to be lifted by falling treasury yields elsewhere. US 10-year yield is back at 2.477 while Germany 10-year yield is negative. There was no extra bearish development in Australia to push RBA to deliver a rate cut yet. Swiss Franc is the weakest one, thanks to rally in oil prices. Dollar follows as second weakest.

                                          Released in Asian session:

                                          • UK RICS house price balance improved to -24 in March, above expectation of -29.
                                          • Japan M2 rose 2.4% yoy in March, matched expectations.
                                          • Australian consumer inflation expectation slowed to 3.9% in April, down from 4.1%.
                                          • China CPI accelerated to 2.3% yoy in March, matched expectations. PPI also rose to 0.4% yoy, matched expectations.

                                          Looking ahead: Germany CPI, Canada new housing price index, US PPI and jobless claims will be featured. A number of Fed officials will speak today, including Clarida, Williams, Bullard and Bowman.

                                          In Asia, currently:

                                          • Nikkei is down -0.12%.
                                          • Hong Kong HSI is down -0.96%.
                                          • China Shanghai SSE is down -0.95%.
                                          • Singapore Strait Times is up 0.23%.
                                          • Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0044.

                                          Overnight:

                                          • DOW rose 0.03%.
                                          • S&P 500 rose 0.35%.
                                          • NASDAQ rose 0.69%.
                                          • 10-year yield dropped -0.022 to 2.477.