BoJ Kuroda: Need to pay closer attention to loss of momentum in inflation

    In a speech to BoJ regional branch managers, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the central bank won’t hesitate to add to current stimulus is needed. In particular, he emphasized, “we need to pay closer attention to the possibility that momentum towards achieving our price target will be lost.”

    Nevertheless, Kuroda maintained that the economy is likely to continue expanding moderately as a trend, despite overseas slowdown. Inflation is currently moving around 0.5% and is expected to accelerate gradually towards 2%, on positive output gap and rises in inflation expectation.

    He also said BoJ needs to monitor the effects of Saturday’s powerful typhoon on the real economy, maintain functioning and smooth settlement of funds.

    BoJ Ueda: Current policy a necessary, appropriate means to achieve 2% inflation

      At a parliamentary confirmation hearing, incoming BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said, “current policy is a necessary, appropriate means to achieve 2% inflation,” despite various side effects emerging from the stimulus.

      “Japan’s trend inflation is likely to rise gradually. But it will take some time for inflation to sustainably and stably achieve the BOJ’s 2% target,” he said.

      “Consumer inflation is likely to fall below 2% in the latter half of the next fiscal year. It takes time for the effect of monetary policy to appear on the economy. ”

      “It’s standard practice to act preemptively to demand-driven inflation, but not respond immediately to supply-driven inflation. Otherwise, the BOJ will be cooling demand, worsening economy and pushing down prices by tightening monetary policy.”

      “If trend inflation heightens significantly and sustained achievement of the BOJ’s 2% target comes into sight, the central bank must consider normalizing policy. But if trend inflation lacks strength, the bank must continue how to maintain its ultra-easy policy, while paying attention to deterioration in market function.”

      WTI oil upside breakout, targets 55.70 first, 58.26 next

        WTI crude oil breaks through 53.92 resistance to resume near term up trend today. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 47.24 to 53.92 from 51.58 at 55.70 first, and then 100% projection at 58.26.

        In any case, near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 51.58 support holds. As for the chance of taking on 65.43 medium term structural resistance, we’ll see if WTI could accelerate upwards with the current move.

        Fed Kaplan: Probably take more fiscal action to grind down unemployment

          Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told CNBC that the US would probably need more fiscal action “whether it’s aid to governments or other fiscal action as we go through this.”

          “The problem is we’re going to have an unemployment rate that peaks at around 20%, which we’re going to reach very soon,” he added. “We’re going to end the year with an unemployment rate as high as 10%, and we’re going to need to grind that down, and it’s probably going to take more fiscal action to help grind that down.”

          “The Fed has done a lot to help stabilize the markets and make sure that small companies, mid-size companies, bigger companies have access to capital,” Kaplan said. “But again, these are loans. We’re the lender of last resort and this is intended to be a bridge to when we are going to recover.”

          ECB’s Villeroy warns of entrenched inflation risk, shifts focus to long-distance race

            ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau has warned of the risk of entrenched inflation yesterday, stating, “We now face the risk of entrenched inflation, which lies in the underlying or core component. In other words, inflation has become more widespread, and potentially more persistent.”

            Villeroy emphasized that the ECB’s monetary policy response to rising inflation has been strong and swift. However, he also noted a shift in focus, saying, “We at the ECB are now moving from a ‘sprint’ to a ‘long-distance race’.” He added that the inflation outlook, underlying inflation readings, and the effectiveness of policy transmission will be the key factors in upcoming decisions on potential new rate hikes.

            New Zealand retail sales volume down -2.3% qoq in Q2, sales value relatively unchanged

              New Zealand retail sales volume declined -2.3% qoq in Q2 to NZD 26B, worse than expectation of 1.7% qoq rise. 10 of 15 industries had lower seasonally adjusted sales volumes comparing with Q1.

              Retail sales value was relatively unchanged, up slightly by NZD 1.1m to NZD 29B. 8 of 15 industries had lower seasonally adjusted sales values.

              Full release here.

              Chinese Premier Li: One-way depreciation of the yuan brings more harm than benefits for China

                Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in a forum today that the talk of China deliberately weakening the Yuan exchange rate was “groundless”. He added that “one-way depreciation of the yuan brings more harm than benefits for China.” Also, a weaker currency “will only come at a cost of damaging China’s economic environment”.

                And he pledged that “China will never go down the road of relying on yuan depreciation to stimulate exports.” Instead, China would “tick to market-oriented foreign exchange reform”. But he also said, the currency would be kept “basically stable at an adaptive level”.

                On US-China trade war, Li said “no unilateralism will offer a viable solution”. Instead, “it is essential that we uphold the basic principles of multilateralism and free trade.” He noted intellectual property theft would be “dealt with seriously” with “doubled or even tripled unaffordable penalties” for breaches in order to ensure firms are “comfortable” bringing their business to China.

                Li also said China is “deeply integrated into the world economy, the Chinese economy is inevitably affected by notable changes in the global economic and trade context.” And he admitted that “we’re facing greater difficulties in keeping stable performance of the Chinese economy.” But he also indicated Beijing has “prepared sufficient tools for us to deal with risks and challenges” and added that “these policy tools will boost China’s resilience to cope with various challenges and difficulties.”

                Trump: It’s more likely tariffs on Mexico go on

                  Trump indicates at a news conference that he is likely to go ahead with tariffs on Mexico. And Mexico should “step up” to stop “invasion” to the US. At the same time he blamed Democrats for stalling Congress’ efforts to address the situation at border.

                  He said “We’re going to see if we can do something, but I think it’s more likely that the tariffs go on… Mexico should step up and stop this onslaught, this invasion into our country.”

                  Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard is “going to find common ground” with the US and hoped Wednesday’s meeting in Washington could be a starting point for negotiations.

                  Japan exports rose 48.6% yoy in Jun, 4th month of double-digit growth

                    Japan’s exports rose 48.6% yoy to JPY 7220B in June. That;s the fourth straight month of double-digit growth, even though it’s largely exaggerated by the pandemic plunge last year. By destination, exports to China jumped 27.7% yoy, led by demand for chip-making equipment, raw materials and plastic. Exports to US also rose 85.5% yoy, driven by cars, auto parts and motors. Imports rose 32.7% yoy to JPY 6837B. Trade surplus came in at JPY 383B.

                    In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose 2.4% mom to JPY 7040B. Imports rose 4.0% mom to JPY 7130B. Trade balance turned into deficit of JPY 0.09T, versus expectation of JPY 0.02T surplus.

                    UK CPI slows to 3.9% yoy in Nov, core CPI down to 5.1% yoy

                      UK CPI slowed from 4.6% yoy to 3.9% yoy in November, below expectation of 4.3% yoy. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) slowed from 5.7% yoy to 5.1% yoy, below expectation of 5.5% yoy. CPI goods fell from 2.9% yoy to 2.0% yoy. CPI services also fell from 6.6% yoy to 6.2% yoy.

                      ONS noted, “The easing in the annual inflation rates reflected downward contributions from eight divisions, most notably transport, recreation and culture, and food and non-alcoholic beverages. There were no divisions with large offsetting upward effects.”

                      On a monthly basis, CPI was down -0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom rise.

                      Full UK CPI release here.

                      Eurozone industrial production rises 2.6% mom in Dec, vs exp -0.3% mom

                        Eurozone industrial production rose 2.6% mom in December, much better than expectation of -0.3% mom decline. Production grew by 20.5% for capital goods, by 0.5% for durable consumer goods, by 0.3% for energy and by 0.2% for non-durable consumer goods, while production fell by -1.2% for intermediate goods.

                        EU industrial production also rose 2.6% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases were registered in Ireland (+23.5%), the Netherlands (+6.6%) and Denmark (+5.6%). The largest decreases were observed in Slovenia (-7.4%), Croatia (-4.3%) and Finland (-2.7%).

                        Full Eurozone industrial production release here.

                        New Zealand BusinessNZ services dropped to 47.9, generally negative

                          New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services dropped -1.2 pts to 47.9 in January, signal deeper contraction. The index was also well below long term average of 53.8 for the survey. Looking at some details, activity/sales dropped from 51.0 to 46.4. Employment dropped from 52.8 to 46.9. New orders, though, improved from 50.9 to 53.7.

                          BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said that the January result was generally negative when examined more deeply. “Looking at the comments made by respondents, the ongoing trend of contraction was typified by the influences of the Xmas period, ongoing COVID-19 related issues (including freight challenges) and a slower return to business as usual post holidays”.

                          Full release here.

                          Australia NAB business confidence rose to 6, conditions rose to 18

                            Australia NAB Business Confidence rose further from 0 to 6 in January. Business Conditions also improved from 13 to 18. Looking at some details, trading conditions rose from 20 to 28. Profitability conditions rose from 13 to 17. Employment conditions rose from 9 to 10.

                            NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster: “Business conditions picked back up in January after three months of softening in late 2022. There were strong increases in conditions for ‘upstream’ sectors such as wholesale, construction and manufacturing, and importantly, conditions in the more consumer-facing industries remained very strong.”

                            “Confidence dipped into negative territory late in 2022 but is now back around the average after rebounding over the past two months. The improvement in confidence suggest firms have a more optimistic outlook as concerns about global growth prospects ease, while strong conditions are also providing evidence that the economy is more resilient than previously expected.”

                            Full release here.

                            BoC stays the course, no explicit hint on rate cut

                              BoC maintains overnight rate at 5.00% as widely expected. The central bank’s statement highlighted that both the CPI and core inflation have “eased further” in recent months, though they remain at elevated levels. BoC emphasized its intention to monitor whether the observed “downward momentum is sustained”. But there is no explicit hint on rate cuts.

                              In its latest economic projections, BoC forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% for 2024, an uptick from previously projected 0.8%. The outlook for the subsequent years also remains optimistic, with growth expected at 2.2% in 2025 (down from previous 2.5%) and 1.9% in 2026.

                              On the inflation front, BoC projects CPI to hover close to 3% during the first half of this year, with a downward trend anticipated in the latter half to below 2.5%, and reach 2% inflation target in 2025.

                              Full BoC statement here.

                              US goods exports rose 5.5% yoy in Feb, imports dropped -1.9% yoy

                                In February, US goods exports rose 5.5% yoy to USD 167.8B. Goods imports dropped -1.9% yoy to USD 259.5B. Trade deficit widened slightly to USD -91.6B.

                                Whole sales inventories rose 0.2% mom to USD 920.3B. Retail inventories rose 0.8% mom to USD 747.3B.

                                Full release here.

                                Fed Evans not fear of 2.5% inflation or more

                                  Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday, “I do not fear stronger accommodation in the pursuit of clearly overshooting 2%, even to the point of 2-1/2, or even a little bit more”. Inflation at 2.5% for some time is “in the cards” if Fed is doing its job right.

                                  As for monetary policy, Evans said it’s premature to ramp up Fed’s asset purchases at this point. Fed should wait until the economy gets into better shape, including having unemployment closer to 6%, while consumers are more comfortable spending their money. When that happens, “we would have a better idea of the right amount of accommodation and the way to deliver it,” Evans said.

                                  Canada employment rose 154k in Nov, unemployment rate dropped to 6.0%

                                    Canada employment grew 154k in November, well above expectation of 37k. It’s now 1% higher than its pre-COVID February 2020 level. Unemployment rate dropped sharply from 6.7% to 6.0%, much better than expectation of 6.6%.

                                    Full time jobs grew 80k while part-time jobs rose 74k. Services-producing sector added 127k jobs, while goods-producing sectors rose 26k. Total hours worked rose 0.7% mom.

                                    Full release here.

                                    US Ross: China must cease inappropriate activities on trade

                                      US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a Fox Business Network interview that US is “not looking for victory” on trade negotiations. And, the country just want “a sensible deal that addresses the legitimate issues that we have.”

                                      Ross pointed out again that “there are some inappropriate activities underway by the Chinese” and warned “they must cease”. He added, “if they do, if we make some redressing of the trade imbalance, then that’s a reasonable deal for both parties.”

                                      Gold breaches 1700, close to critical support

                                        Gold’s down trend continued this week and breached 1700 handle overnight. Further fall is still in favor but Gold is now close to a critical support zone.

                                        Whole pattern from 2074.84 (2020 high) is seen as a three wave consolidation pattern, with fall from 2070.06 as the third leg. Strong support is expected around 1682.60, with 38.2% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84 at 1681.92, to complete the pattern. Break of 1745.21 minor resistance will now be a sign of short term bottoming and bring stronger rise back to 1786.65/1878.92 resistance zone.

                                        However, sustained break of 1682.60 will complete a double top reversal pattern (2074.84, 2070.06), and could prompt deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 1439.18.

                                        Yen feels the heat as BoJ’s yield cap redefinition underwhelms

                                          Japanese Yen is facing renewed pressure following BoJ’s policy announcement, where expectations for significant changes were left largely unmet. Instead, the central bank introduced a minor tweak in the language concerning its yield cap, resulting in underwhelming market reactions. USD/JPY is back above 150 mark, after dipping to 148.79 overnight.

                                          Under the Yield Curve Control framework, BoJ has maintained the short-term policy interest rate at -0.10%, while 10-year JGB yield target remains at around 0%. These decisions were reached unanimously. However, the central bank subtly altered its wording regarding the 10-year JGB yield cap, now referring to the 1.0% level as a “reference in its market operations.” This move is perceived as transforming the cap into a flexible upper boundary rather than a strict limit.

                                          Adding to this, BoJ stated, “Given extremely high uncertainties over the economy and markets, it’s appropriate to increase flexibility in the conduct of yield curve control.” This sentiment was not universally shared, as Nakamura Toyoaki expressed dissent, suggesting that increasing flexibility should be contingent upon confirming a rise to firms’ earning power.

                                          In a significant update, BoJ’s new economic projections reveal upgraded core inflation forecasts across the board, with a noteworthy jump from 1.9% to 2.8% for fiscal 2024.

                                          Here’s a summary of the updated forecasts:

                                          Core CPI Forecasts (July):

                                          • Fiscal 2023: 2.8% (up from 2.5%)
                                          • Fiscal 2024: 2.8% (up from 1.9%)
                                          • Fiscal 2025: 1.7% (up slightly from 1.6%)

                                          Core-Core CPI Forecasts:

                                          • Fiscal 2023: 3.8% (up from 3.2%)
                                          • Fiscal 2024: 1.9% (up from 1.7%)
                                          • Fiscal 2025: 1.9% (up from 1.8%)

                                          GDP Forecasts:

                                          • Fiscal 2023: 2.0% (up from 1.3%)
                                          • Fiscal 2024: 1.0% (down from 1.2%)
                                          • Fiscal 2025: 1.0% (unchanged)

                                          Full BoJ statement here.

                                          Full BoJ Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices here.