US markets are standing on precarious footing, with investors attention on the February non-farm payrolls report due later in the day. There has been noticeable anxieties surrounding the impact of fiscal and trade policies changes. A set of weaker-than-expected NFP data could be taken as another signal of swift deceleration in the economy and rattle market sentiment further.
Cooldown in the job market might prompt Fed to resume rate cuts earlier. Markets are currently pricing in 53% chance of a 25bps rate cut in March, reflecting growing belief that Fed will need to act sooner rather than later. However, the immediate market response to downside surprises may not be relief over monetary easing but rather heightened concerns about the pace of economic weakening, given recent policy uncertainties and trade disruptions.
Markets anticipate 156k increase in NFP for February, up from 143k in January. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.0%, while average hourly earnings should hold steady at 0.3% m/m.
The latest indicators paint a mixed picture: ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment subindex dropped to 47.6 from 50.3, while ISM Services PMI Employment inched up to 53.9 from 52.3. Meanwhile, ADP Employment reading of 77k missed last month’s 186k, and the 4-week moving average of jobless claims rose to 224k—its highest level so far this year.
Technically, NASDAQ has been sliding for two consecutive weeks, now testing its 55-week EMA at 17,874.13. A decisive break below this level would confirm that the index is at least in a correction relative to the broader uptrend from the 10,088.82 low in 2022. The next key support to watch is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 10,088.82 to 20,204.58, which comes in at 16,340.36. Extended losses here could set a negative tone for broader U.S. equities.
The S&P 500, still trading comfortably above its 55-week EMA at 5,590.31, may follow in the NASDAQ’s footsteps if sentiment sours further. Should the index breach this EMA convincingly, it would likely confirm that the fall from 6,147.43 is a correction of the uptrend from the 3,491.58 low in 2022. This scenario would set a 38.2% retracement target around 5,132.89, marking a significant downside pivot.
Overall, whether today’s NFP meets, misses, or exceeds expectations, the market’s reaction will hinge on how investors interpret the labor data in the context of looming trade uncertainties and weakening growth momentum. A softer reading could drive near-term Fed cut bets higher but might also deepen concerns that the U.S. economy is losing steam, thereby raising the stakes for traders and policymakers alike.
Technically, NASDAQ is now eyeing 55 W EMA (now at 17874.13) with the extended decline in the past two weeks. Sustained break there will confirm that it’s at least in correction to the up trend from 10088.82 (2022 low). Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 10088.82 to 20204.58 at 16340.36.
Extended selloff in NASDAQ could be a prelude to similar development in S&P 500. While it’s still well above 55 W EMA (now at 5590.31), sustained break there will align the outlook with NASDAQ. Fall from 6147.43 would then be correcting the up trend from 3491.58 (2022 low) at least, and target 38.2% retracement of 3491.58 to 6147.43 at 5132.89.
Bitcoin and Ethereum slide further as market reacts to strategic reserve letdown
Bitcoin has come under selling pressure in recent days, and slips closer to 80k mark. Ethereum, with a even worse outlook, has been struggling at its lowest levels since late 2023.
The broader cryptocurrency market has been in decline since early February, mirroring weak risk sentiment in the US financial markets. While there was a brief revival earlier this month after US President Donald Trump announced plans to establish a “strategic reserve” for cryptos, that optimism quickly faded once details of the initiative were revealed.
The market’s disappointment stemmed from the fact that the reserve would be funded solely by those seized in criminal and civil forfeiture cases, with no actual government purchases planned. Many investors had initially hoped for a more aggressive accumulation strategy.
Technically, Bitcoin is still holding above 55 W EMA (now at 75052), which is slightly above 73812 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 15452. to 109571 at 73617). Price actions from 109571 high could still be seen as just forming a sideway consolidation pattern.
However, decisive break of 73k-75k support zone will argue that Bitcoin is already in a medium term downtrend, even still as correction. In the bearish case, Bitcoin could head to around 50k mark, that is, 49008 support and 61.8% retracement at 51405,before bottoming.
Outlook for Ethereum is even worse with focus now on 2000 psychological level, which is close to 2084.51 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 878.50 to 4108.15 at 2112.22).
Sustained break of this support zone around 2000 will raise the chance that fall from 4108.15 is the third leg of the decline from 4863.75 (2021 high). That could set up deeper medium term fall through 878.50 (2022 low).