EURCHF Outlook

EUR/CHF's extended rebound last week suggests that corrective fall from 0.9264 has completed at 0.9094. But as a temporary top was formed at 0.9191 and initial bias is turned neutral first. Risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.9094 holds. Above 0.9191 will target a test on 0.9264 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 0.8979 to 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) should still be in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. However, decisive break of 0.9394 will be an important sign of medium term bullish reversal.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low) holds. However, firm break of 0.9407 will argue that the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.

EUR/CHF's strong break of 0.9169 resistance suggests that fall from 0.9264 has completed as a correction at 0.9094. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.9264 first. Firm break there will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379. On the downside, break of 0.9137 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) should still be in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. However, decisive break of 0.9394 will be an important sign of medium term bullish reversal.

EUR/CHF is still limited by 0.9169 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, firm break of 0.9094 will resume the decline from 0.9264 to retest 0.8979 low. On the upside, however, decisive break of 0.9169 will argue that the pullback has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.9264.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9252) suggests that the down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of another rebound.