EURUSD Outlook

EUR/USD edged lower to 1.1103 but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week, and further fall is still expected with 1.1269 resistance intact. Break of 1.1103/11 will will extend larger fall from 1.2081 to 1.0904 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.1269 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1337).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.2081 medium term top could be reversing the rise from 1.0176 (2025 low), and probably even that from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.0904 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1710 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, immediate focus is now on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1243). Sustained break there will argue that rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) has completed as a three wave corrective move at 1.2081, after rejection at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level. That will keep the long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact.

EUR/USD recovered quickly after dipping to 1.1103 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1269 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.1103/11 will extend larger fall from 1.2081 to 1.0904 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.1269 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1343).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.2081 medium term top could be reversing the rise from 1.0176 (2025 low), and probably even that from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.0904 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1710 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

EUR/USD is still bounded in range above 1.1111 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1269 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.1111 will extend larger fall from 1.2081 to 1.0904 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.1269 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1343).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.2081 medium term top could be reversing the rise from 1.0176 (2025 low), and probably even that from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.0904 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1710 resistance holds, in case of rebound.