USDJPY Outlook

The break of 154.79 minor resistance suggests short term bottoming at 152.87. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 155.30) will target 38.2% retracement of 163.97 to 152.87 at 157.11. On the downside, break of 152.87 will extend the fall from 163.87 to 149.07 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 155.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76), together with bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, suggests that 163.97 is already a medium term top. Fall from would now target 61.8% retracement at 149.07 next. Firm break there will target 139.87 support.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 154.79 resistance should indicate short term bottoming at 152.87, and bring stronger rise to 55 4H EMA (now at 155.30). Firm break there will target 38.2% retracement of 163.97 to 152.87 at 157.11. On the downside, break of 152.87 will extend the fall from 163.87 to 149.07 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 155.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76), together with bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, suggests that 163.97 is already a medium term top. Fall from would now target 61.8% retracement at 149.07 next. Firm break there will target 139.87 support.

USD/JPY fell further to 152.87 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations first. Further decline is expected as long as 154.79 minor resistance holds. Below 152.87 will extend the fall from 163.79 to 149.07 fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 154.79 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 55 4H EMA (now at 155.51) and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 163.97 medium term top is at least correcting the whole up trend from 139.87. Deeper decline is expected to 61.8% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 149.07 next. Firm break there will raise the chance of larger bearish reversal and target 139.87 support. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 160.38 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback. Up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to resume after current correction from 163.97 completes.