USDJPY Outlook

USD/JPY's rebound from 155.22 extended higher. While further rise could be seen, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 159.67) is needed to indicate that fall from 163.97 has completed. Otherwise, risk will remain on the downside. Below 157.30 minor support will bring retest of 155.22 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement of 163.97 to 155.22 at 160.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 155.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76) holds, the larger up trend is still expected to continue through 163.97 after current correction completes. However, firm break of 155.01 will raise the chance that USD/JPY is already in a larger scale correction, and open up deeper fall back to 139.87 (2025 low) in the medium term.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. While another fall cannot be ruled out, strong support is still expected from 155.01 cluster (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76) to bring rebound. Still, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 159.67) is needed to indicate that fall from 163.97 has completed. Otherwise, risk will remain on the downside. Meanwhile, sustained break of 154.76/155.01 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 149.07.

In the bigger picture, as long as 155.01 structural support holds, the larger up trend is still expected to continue through 163.97 after current correction completes. However, firm break of 155.01 will raise the chance that USD/JPY is already in a larger scale correction, and open up deeper fall back to 139.87 (2025 low) in the medium term.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. While another fall cannot be ruled out, strong support is still expected from (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76) bring rebound. Still, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 160.23) is needed to indicate that fall from 163.97 has completed. Otherwise, risk will remain on the downside. Meanwhile, sustained break of 154.76/155.01 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 149.07.

In the bigger picture, as long as 155.01 structural support holds, the larger up trend is still expected to continue through 163.97 after current correction completes. However, firm break of 155.01 will raise the chance that USD/JPY is already in a larger scale correction, and open up deeper fall back to 139.87 (2025 low) in the medium term.