Notes/Observations

  • Spain election results have Socialist PM Sanchez winning the general election but would need the backing of other groups to remain in office (likely seen partnering with either the liberal party Ciudadanos or forming a govt with left-wing Podemos and Catalan separatists
  • Key week for Europe as the region as Apr inflation and Q1 GDP data comes out (Tues: France, German and Spanish CPI; Euro Zone , Spain Q1 GDP; and Friday sees Euro Zone flash CPI readings
  • US-China trade talks to resume on Tuesday in Beijing, key points remain unresolved

Asia:

  • China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Skips reverse repo operations for 6th consecutive session
  • China Mar YTD industrial Profits improve from prior 8-year lows (YoY: -3.3% v -14.0% prior)
  • Senior Trump officials: there was no wind-down period or short term waiver being considered on sanctions relief for China oil purchases from Iran. Should be an easy call for China to comply with sanctions on Iran because doing business with the US was more important for them than with Iran

Europe/Mideast:

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  • Spain Election results saw the Socialists Party of PM Sanchez win with 123 seats but would still need to form coalition to get majority of 176 seats. Coalition likely with far left, anti-austerity Podemos
  • S&P affirmed Italy sovereign rating at BBB; outlook Negative
  • Both S&P and Fitch affirmed United Kingdom sovereign rating at AA; outlook Negative

Americas:

  • President Trump: Have a chance to make a very good and long term trade deal with Japan; talks with Japan and China were going well; Saw possibility of US/Japan trade deal by May
  • Treasury Sec Mnuchin reiterated that trade negotiation with China were in ‘the final laps”

Energy:

  • Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 991 v 1,012 w/w (-2.1% w/w) for its steepest drop in rigs since mid-Jan
  • Iran Foreign Min Zarif: US Navy ships could pass through Strait of Hormuz; Iran was committed to freedom of navigation

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

  • Indices [Stoxx600 -0.03% at 390.74, FTSE -0.06% at 7,423.50, DAX -0.10% at 12,302.99, CAC-40 -0.01% at 5,569.11, IBEX-35 -0.59% at 9,450.27, FTSE MIB +0.18% at 21,776.50, SMI -0.02% at 9,722.00, S&P 500 Futures +0.08%]
  • Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade mostly lower this morning following a mixed session in Asia and slightly higher US Index futures. The Spanish IBEX underperforms following the Spanish General Elections over the weekend. On the corporate front shares of Dutch traded Philips trades almost 3% higher after profits and Revenue which beat forecasts, with Fielmann, Strabag and Bankia among other notable risers on earnings. Covestro, Santhera Pharma and OPG Power Ventures are among the notable decliners on earnings. In other news Altice shares rise after its Portuguese unit is said to attract multiple bidders for its Fiber optic network; Ferrexpo gains on comments after the resignation of its Auditors. Looking ahead notable earners include Loews Corp, Cooper Tire and McDermott International.

Equities

  • Consumer discretionary: Home24 [H24.DE] -3.5% (final earnings), Strabag [STB1.DE] +1.5% (earnings), SAS [SAS.SE] -2.5% (strikes), SMCP [SMCP.FR] +5.5% (earnings), Fielmann [FIE.DE] +3.5% (earnings)
  • Financials: Bankia [BKIA.ES] +2% (earnings)
  • Healthcare: Koninklijke Philips [PHIA.NL] +2% (earnings), Medivir [MVIRB.SE] -1.5% (new CFO)
  • Industrials: Krones [KRN.DE] -0.5% (earnings)

Speakers

  • Spain Socialist party chief: in no rush to put together a coalition govt
  • China Foreign Min spokesperson Geng Shuang reiterated stance to urge the US to abide by its one China principle
  • South Korea President Moon: Economy to gradually recover from Q2 but external uncertainties remained high

Currencies/Fixed Income

  • USD continued to consolidate following last week’s GDP data. Although the Q1 growth beat expectations dealers took notice of the build in inventories and weaker-than-expected inflation component of the release. Some analysts argued that deterioration of US data would likely occur down the road and limit the greenback’s advance from current levels
  • EUR/USD was steady at 1.1160 area with focu on a plethora of growth and inflation data for release over the week. Tuesday will see the release of France, German and Spanish CPI along with Euro Zone and Spain Q1 GDP. Friday will see the Euro Zone flash CPI readings
  • USD/JPY was slightly higher but remaining below the 122 level. Japanese markets will be closed all week due to the Golden Week holiday.

Economic Data

  • (NL) Netherlands Apr Producer Confidence Index: 6.7 v 6.1 prior
  • (FI) Finland Apr Consumer Confidence Index: 15.7 v 16.1 prior; Business Confidence: -1 v +1 prior
  • (ES) Spain Feb Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y: 31.2% v 16.2%; House Mortgage Approvals Y/Y: 9.2% v 22.5% prior
  • (HU) Hungary Mar Unemployment Rate: 3.6% v 3.6%e
  • (TR) Turkey Apr Economic Confidence: 84.7 v 81.9 prior
  • (SE) Sweden Mar Trade Balance (SEK): 7.0B v 6.3B prior
  • (SE) Sweden Mar Household Lending Y/Y: 5.0% v 5.2% prior
  • (SE) Sweden Feb Non-Manual Workers’ Wages Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.8% prior
  • (CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 576.7B v 576.9B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 479.8B v 481.9B prior
  • (EU) Euro Zone Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.2%e
  • (IT) Italy Mar PPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.9% prior
  • (PT) Portugal Apr Consumer Confidence Index: -9.3 v -9.5 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: 2.3 v 2.3 prior – (HK) Hong Kong Mar Trade Balance (HKD): -59.2B v -48.5Be; Exports Y/Y: -1.2% v -2.6%e; Imports Y/Y: -0.1% v -4.3%e
  • (EU) Euro Zone Apr Business Climate Indicator: 0.42 v 0.49e; Consumer Confidence (final): -7.9 v -7.9e; Economic Confidence: 104.0 v 105.0e; Industrial Confidence: -4.1 v -2.0e; Services Confidence: 11.5 v 11.5e
  • (IS) Iceland Apr CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 2.9% prior
  • (IT) Italy Mar Hourly Wages M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.7% prior

Fixed Income Issuance

  • (DK) Denmark sold total DKK5.68B in 1-month and 3-month Bills

Looking Ahead

  • (BR) Brazil Jan CNI Consumer Confidence: No est v 114.3 prior
  • (BE) Belgium Apr CPI M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior
  • 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell €2.5-3.0B in 2024, 2029 and 2050 OLO bonds
  • 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays)
  • 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.3% prior
  • 06:00 (IL) Israel Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v 5.4% prior
  • 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v 2.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.1% prior
  • 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds – 06:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 6-month Bills
  • 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
  • 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)
  • 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.9e v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 8.6%e v 8.3% prior
  • 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
  • 08:00 (UK) Baltic Bulk Index
  • 08:30 (US) Mar Personal Income: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior; Personal Spending: 0.7%e v 0.1% prior (Jan reading); Real Personal Spending (PCE): 0.3% v 0.1% prior (Jan)
  • 08:30 (US) Mar PCE Deflator M/M: 0.3% v -0.1% prior (Jan); Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.4% prior (Jan)
  • 08:30 (US) Mar PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior (Jan); Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.8% prior (Jan)
  • 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €3.4-4.6B in 3-month, 4-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
  • 09:00 (BE) Belgium Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior
  • 10:30 (US) Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 10.0e v 8.3 prior
  • 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
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