Notes/Observations

  • Congress approve bill supporting Hong Kong protesters; sets up the potential for further confrontation with China
  • China soothes some concerns that trade deal would be delayed or derailed

Asia:

  • China Vice Premier Liu He was said to be ‘cautiously optimistic’ about reaching Phase 1 deal with US. He remained confident but confused about US demands
  • China Premier Li reiterated stance that country had maintained stable economic performance this year; confident it could achieve the main social and economic targets this year; reiterated to keep macro policy stable: proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy

Europe/Mideast:

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  • Germany Finance Ministry Monthly Report: Export activity regained some momentum toward the end of the third quarter. Business sentiment surveys and industrial orders were pointing to a continued trend of subdued trade – SNB’s Maechler: Reiterates CHF remains highly valued; Switzerland still needs expansive monetary policy

Americas:

  • FOMC minutes saw rates as appropriate unless there was a material change. Policymakers discussed using balance sheet tools to cap long-term Treasury rates; Officials did not see negative rates as useful tool in the US
  • House passed Hong Kong support bill (412-1); sends measure to Trump for signature or veto
  • President Trump reportedly was expected to sign Hong Kong bill. The bill could arrive on Trump’s desk by as early as Thursday morning (Nov 21st); Said in theory the bill could be enacted even if Trump vetoed it, as the measure had the support of a veto-proof majority in Congress
  • US White House Trade Advisor Navarro: China is exploiting bifacial loophole in solar tariffs, must close the loophole

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

  • Indices [Stoxx600 -0.33% at 402, FTSE -0.40% at 7235, DAX -0.30% at 13,125, CAC-40 -0.28% at 5,879, IBEX-35 -0.34% at 9,195, FTSE MIB -0.2% at 23,310, SMI -0.31% at 10,353, S&P 500 Futures +0.1%]
  • Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices trading in the red following indices in Asia markets lower and slightly lower US futures. Fiat down following racketeering lawsuit filed by General Motors against the company. On the corporate earnings front, Royal Mail declined 16% on news that the UK unit could be lossmaking in 2020-2021. ThyssenKrupp down ~10% as the company reported FY earnings, guided a significantly higher net loss for next fiscal year and proposed a dividend cut. Seadrill down following reporting large loss and a Chairman change announcement. Other underperformers following earnings/trading updates include Rotork, Investec, Johnson Matthey, Mitie, Severn Trent, William Hill and Naked Wines. Blue Prism rallying 30% after reporting very strong trading update and guiding FY19 revenues significantly higher y/y. Charles Stanley jumping 20% on strong earnings results as well. Other notable risers on results include Semperit, Centrica, Dart Group, CMC Markets and Tessenderlo, which revised FY outlook higher. Notable upcoming earners today include L Brands and Macy’s.

Equities

  • Materials: Johnson Matthey [JMAT.UK] -6.6% (Earnings)
  • Energy: Seadrill [SDRL.NO] -2.4% (Earnings), Centrica [CNA.UK] +8.3% (Trading update)
  • Financials: Charles Stanley Group [CAY.UK] +17% (earnings)
  • Healthcare: Morphosys [MOR.DE] -1.4% (CSO departs)
  • Industrials: Thyssenkrupp [TKA.DE] -10% (Earnings), Rotork [ROR.UK] -4.7% (Trading update), Royal Mail Group [RMG.UK]
  • 16% (Earnings, guidance), Fiat Chrysler [FCA.IT] -2.1% (GM files racketeering lawsuit)
  • Technology: Blue Prism Group [PRSM.UK] +30% (Earnings)

Speakers

  • German Bundesbank Financial Stability Report saw cyclical risk build up in financial system with German Banks still vulnerable to a downturn
  • OECD updated its economic outlook and urged greater reliance on fiscal support for growth. Saw a sharper economic downturn if US-China trade conflict escalates
  • Hungary PM Chief of Staff Gulyas: Govt wants to approve economic incentives to help growth in 2020
  • Indonesia Central Bank (BI) Policy Statement noted to maintain its accommodative policy and would review domestic and global economy to utilize room to anchor inflation and support growth. It still saw room for policy easing.
  • China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) spokesperson Gao Feng: Rumors about trade talks regarding disagreements with US were not accurate. Both US and China were maintaining contact in regards to trade. Reiterated view that China was willing to work with US to address mutual concerns
  • China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang reiterated govt stance that China condemned US passage of Hong Kong-related bills. Urged US to prevent those bills from becoming law
  • Senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi: China resolutely opposed US lawmakers passing Hong Kong human rights bill
  • China said to have sent an invitation to USTR Lighthizer, and Tsy Sec Mnuchin last weak for more talks. US negotiators showed willingness for more trade talks but said to be hesitant to travel unless China made it clear they would commit on IP protection

Currencies/Fixed Income

  • FX markets remained within recent ranges as risk sentiment remained hesitant given the trade uncertainty between US and China. Some soothing comments from Chinese official to downplay negative rumors help to keep risk aversion to a minimum. EUR/USD just under the 1.11 level while USD/JPY was steady in the 108.50 area.
  • GBP/USD was awaiting the Labour party manifesto and any ‘radical’ policies ahead of the Dec 12th election.

Economic Data

  • (NL) Netherlands Nov Consumer Confidence Index: -2 v -1 prior
  • (NL) Netherlands Oct Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.5%e
  • (NL) Netherlands Sept Consumer Spending Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.3% prior
  • (NL) Netherlands Oct House Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 6.1 v 6.1% prior
  • (DK) Denmark Nov Consumer Confidence Indicator: 1.3 v 1.7 prior
  • (TR) Turkey Nov Consumer Confidence: 59.9 v 57.0 prior
  • (CH) Swiss Q3 Industrial Output Y/Y: 3.5%e; Industry & Construction Output Y/Y: 6.3% v 3.3% prior
  • (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) left the 7-Day Reverse Repo unchanged at 5.00% (as expected) for its 1st pause in 5 decision in the current easing cycle
  • (FR) France Nov Business Confidence: 105 v 105e; Manufacturing Confidence: 100 v 100e; Production Outlook Indicator: -3 v 0e; Own-Company Production Outlook: 1 v 4e
  • (CH) Swiss Oct M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.7% prior
  • (HK) Hong Kong Oct CPI Composite Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.2%
  • (SE) Sweden Q3 Total Number of Employees Y/Y: 0.7% v 1.9% prior
  • (PL) Poland Oct Employment M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e
  • (PL) Poland Oct Average Gross Wages M/M: 2.5% v 2.8%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 6.2%e
  • (ES) Spain Sept Trade Balance: -€4.3B v -€4.0B prior
  • (IS) Iceland Q3 Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 4.4% prior
  • (SL) Sri Lanka Oct National CPI (NCPI) Y/Y: 5.6% v 5.0% prior
  • (UK) Oct Public Finances (PSNCR): £0.4B v £2.3B prior; Public Sector Net Borrowing: £10.5B v £8.6Be; Central Government NCR: £0.1B v £14.8B prior; PSNB ex Banking Groups : £11.2B v £9.3Be

Fixed Income Issuance

  • (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €3.55B vs. €3.0-4.0B indicated range in 2024, 2029 and 2066 bonds
  • Sold €540M in 0.25% July 2024 SPGB bond; Avg yield: -0.106% v -0.199% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.81x v 2.30x prior
  • Sold €2.153B in 0.60% Oct 2029 SPGB; Avg Yield: 0.409% v 0.295% prior, bid-to-cover: 1.56x v 2.30x prior
  • Sold €856M in 3.45% July 2066 SPGB; Yield: 1.622% v 1.447% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.24x v 1.23x prior
  • (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total €B vs. €7.0-8.5B indicated range in 2023, 2024 and 2025 bonds

Looking Ahead

  • (PE) Peru Q3 GDP Y/Y: 3.0%e v 1.2% prior
  • 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell bonds (3 tranches)
  • 05:30 (PL) Poland canceled planned bond auction
  • 05:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €1.0-1.5B in 2028, 2029 and 2047 I/L bonds (Oatei)
  • 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell €200M in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: % v 3.13% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.91x prior
  • 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell 3.65% Sept 2031 Bonds; Avg Yield: % v 3.90% prior
  • 07:30 (EU) ECB Account of October Policy Meeting (Oct Minutes)
  • 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank Nov Minutes
  • 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 15th: No est v $541.1B prior
  • 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
  • 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Kganyago pre-rate decision press conference
  • 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 6.50% – 08:30 (US) Fed’ Mester (hawk, non-voter)
  • 08:30 (US) Nov Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 6.0e v 5.6 prior
  • 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 218Ke v 225K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.68Me v 1.683M prior
  • 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct ADP Payroll Estimates: No est v +28.2K prior
  • 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sale
  • 08:40 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz fireside chat in Toronto
  • 09:00 (BE) Belgium Nov Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -8 prior
  • 10:00 (US) Oct Existing Home Sales: 5.49Me v 5.38M prior
  • 10:00 (US) Oct Leading Index: -0.2%e v -0.1% prior
  • 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Advance Consumer Confidence: -7.3e v -7.6 prior
  • 10:10 (US) Fed’s Kashkari (dove, non-voter) in Minnesota
  • 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories –
  • 11:00 (US) Treasury announcement on upcoming 2-year, 5-year and 7-year issuance
  • 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills
  • 11:30 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) announcement on upcoming BTPei and CTZ issuance
  • 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year TIPS Reopening
  • 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Trade Balance: No est v $1.7B prior; Total Exports: No est v $5.8B prior; Total Imports: No est v $4.0 B prior
  • (AR) Argentine Nov Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 43.8 prior
  • 15:30 (ES) ECB’s De Guindos (Spain)in Madrid
  • 17:00 (AU) Australia Nov Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.0 prior; PMI Services: No est v 50.1 prior; PMI Composite: No est v 50.0 prior
  • 18:30 (JP) Japan Oct National CPI Y/Y: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; CPI Ex-fresh food (core) Y/Y: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior; CPI Ex-fresh food/energy Y/Y: 0.6%e v 0.5% prior
  • 19:30 (JP) Japan Nov Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: No est v 48.4 prior; PMI Services: No est v 49.7 prior; PMI Composite: 49.1 prior
  • 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills
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