Threat Of No Deal Brexit Revived

Notes/Observations

• The threat of no deal Brexit revived as PM Johnson said to guarantee Brexit by end of 2020, with or without a trade deal as part of a Brexit bill

Asia:

• RBA minutes noted that it was appropriate approach would be to maintain the current stance of monetary policy and important to reassess the economic outlook in February. Board had the ability to provide further stimulus to the economy, if required. Would continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and was prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed
• China PBOC might implement 2 ‘targeted’ RRR cuts in 2020 with cuts might come in Q1 and Q3.

Europe/Mideast:

• Italy Govt won confidence vote on 2020 budget in Senate (moves next to lower house)
• BOE Financial Stability Report, Stress Tests results: largest UK banks passed the 2019 stress test; UK banks could meet obligation without access to wholesale funding for many months
• BOE’s Carney: UK banking system would be resilient to UK and global recessions that were more severe than the 2008 global financial crisis

Brexit:

• PM Johnson stated that he would guarantee Brexit by end of 2020, with or without a trade deal as part of a Brexit bill; PM set to push through a radically altered bill that’ll prevent parliament from extending the transition period. PM Johnson looking to legally prevent Brexit from going past the end of 2020. Revised withdrawal agreement bill will put into law that the transition arrangements with the EU must end Dec 31 2020

Americas:

• President Trump: China trade deal translation will be finished in the coming weeks; deal would be finalized in next two weeks
• White House Econ Adviser Kudlow: Phase 1 US-China trade deal would double US exports to China. Stated that US to likely begin work on UK trade agreement soon

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 -0.61% at 7,515.75, FTSE -0.05% at 7,515.75, DAX -0.56% at 13,332.79, CAC-40 -0.30% at 5,973.80, IBEX-35 -0.45% at 9,637.00, FTSE MIB +0.25% at 23,582.83, SMI -0.17% at 10,523.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.04%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices mostly in the red following indices in Asia higher and slightly lower US futures. Unilever down as the company lowered FY19 revenue growth outlook citing economic slowdown in South Asia, one of the company’s largest markets. Bunzl, Petrofac, Trainline and Hunting all down on trading updates. Ceconomy also down following earnings results and dividend suspension. Inficon trading lower after cutting FY19 revenue and operating margin guidance. Likewise, Voestalpine down after profit warning and dividend cut yesterday after market close. Airbus up and suppliers Safran and Senior PLC down on news after market close yesterday that Boeing is temporarily suspending 737 Max production in January. Accor up a tad following 86% stake divestment in Polish Orbis. Notable earners today include Navistar International and Jabil.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Unilever [UNA.NL] -5% (lowers Rev outlook), Accor [AC.FR] +1% (divestment), Ceconomy [CEC.DE] -3% (earnings; suspends div), Bunzl [BNZL.UK] -1% (trading update), Inficon [IFCH.CH] -2% (outlook cut)
• Industrials: Airbus [AIR.FR] +0.5% (Boeing suspends 737 Max production), Safran [SAF.FR] -4% (Boeing suspends 737 Max production)

Speakers

• ECB’s Villeroy (France): Short-term rates could remain stable for ‘while’
• ECB’s Muller (Estonia): ECB should have flexibility with inflation target, should consider a band around the obective
• EU Deputy Negotiator Weyand: EU was ready for quick start to trade talks with UK in post Brexit environment
• RBA Board Member Harper stated that there was stimulus building in economy and took time for remedies to work. Noted that the job market, consumption and investment were key for Feb policy meeting. Cautioned that further rate cuts could further hurt confidence.
• Bank of Korea (BOK) Nov Minutes : Another board member in addition to dissenter sees need for rate cut
• China said to grant more regular tariff waivers for US farm imports
• China Foreign Ministrd spokesperson Geng Shuang: Situation on Korean Peninsula was at a critical and sensitive stage, reiterates stance that US-North Korea should continue dialogue
• China Govt said to consider buying ethanol, divert Hong Kong trade in order to hit US agricultural target in phase-1 trade agreement

Currencies/Fixed Income

• GBP/USD was softer on reports PM Johnson had reworked the EU withdrawal agreement to prevent Parliament from extending the Brexit transition period beyond the end of 2020. The planned bill could set up new no-deal split at the end of 2020 Cable saw all of its post-election gains evaporate and was trading at 1.3185 by mid-session.
• EUR/USD was steady at 1.1130 area with dealers noting that recent PMI data for EU gave reasons for caution ahead of the German IFO Survey later this week (due Wed)
• USD/JPY was probing the upper end of its recent range at 109.60. Dealers noting of buy-stops building above that level. BOJ meets later this week.

Economic Data

• (EU) EU27 Nov New Car Registrations: 4.9 v 8.7% prior (3rd straight rise)
• (ZA) South Africa Oct Leading Indicator: 103.9 v 103.5e
• (ES) Spain Q3 Labour Costs Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.4% prior
• (HK) Hong Kong Nov Unemployment Rate: 3.2% v 3.2%e
• (IT) Italy Oct Total Trade Balance: €8.1B v €2.7B prior; Trade Balance EU: €2.1B v €1.2B prior
• (UK) Nov Jobless Claims Change: +28.8K v +26.4K prior; Claimant Count Rate: 3.5% v 3.4% prior
• (UK) Oct Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 3.2% v 3.4%e; Weekly Earnings (ex-bonus) 3M/Y: 3.5% v 3.4%e
• (UK) Oct ILO Unemployment Rate: 3.8% v 3.9%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +24K v -14Ke
• (EU) Euro Zone Oct Trade Balance (seasonally adj): €24.5B v €20.0B; Trade Balance NSA (unadj): €28.0B v €18.7B prior

Fixed Income Issuance

• None seen

Looking Ahead

• 05:30 (UK) Weekly John Lewis LFL Sales data
• 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO)
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell in 3-month Bills
• 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell £3.0B in 2.00% Sept 2025 Gilts
• 05:40 (UK) BOE allotment in 6-month GBP-enhanced liquidity repo operation (ILTR)
• 06:00 (UK) Dec CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -25e v -26 prior; Selling Prices: No est v -1 prior
• 06:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Dec COPOM Minutes
• 06:30 (IS) Iceland cancelled planned Bond auction
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:00 (SK) ECB Member Kazimir (Slovakia)
• 07:00 (RU) Russia announces upcoming OFZ Bond issuance
• 07:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2021 and 2024 bonds
• 07:45 (US) Goldman Economist Chain Store Sales
• 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (MNB) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base rate unchanged at 0.90%; Expected to leave Overnight Deposit Rate unchanged at -0.05%
• 08:00 (RU) Russia Nov PPI M/M: 0.0%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -5.8%e v -4.9% prior
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:00 (US) Fed’s Kaplan (dove, non-voter)
• 08:30 (US) Nov Housing Starts: 1.345Me v 1.314M prior; Building Permits: 1.418Me v 1.461M prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.0%e v -0.2% prior
• 08:30 (IE) ECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist) at conference
• 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data
• 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
• 09:15 (US) Nov Industrial Production M/M: +0.8%e v -0.8% prior; Capacity Utilization: 77.4%e v 76.7% prior; Manufacturing Production: +0.9%e v -0.6% prior
• 09:30 (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: No est v -0.5% prior
• 10:00 (US) Oct JOLTS Job Openings: 7.009Me v 7.024M prior
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserve data
• 12:30 (US) Fed’s Rosengren (hawk, dissenter): in New York
• 12:30 (US) Fed’s Williams (moderate, voter): on Economic Conditions
• 14:15 (UK) BOE Gov Carney with ECB’s Coeure
• 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q3 GDP Q/Q: +0.5%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.8%e v +0.6% prior
• 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
• 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q3 Current Account Balance (NZD): -6.3Be v -1.1B prior; Current Account to GDP Ratio: -3.4%e v -3.4% prior
• 18:30 (AU) Australia Nov Westpac Leading Index M/M: No est v -0.07% prior
• 18:50 (JP) Japan Nov Adjusted Trade Balance: -¥56.4Be v -¥34.7B prior; Trade Balance: -¥355.5Be v +¥15.7B prior (revised from ¥17.3B); Exports Y/Y: -8.9%e v -9.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: -12.8%e v -14.8% prior
• 19:00 (AU) Australia Nov Skilled Vacancies M/M: No est v -0.9% prior
• 20:10 (JP) BOJ Outright Bond Purchase operation; to buy 1~3-year bonds; 3~5-bonds and ~5-10-year bonds
• 20:30 (KR) South Korea Central Bank to sell KRW 2.1T in 2-year bonds
• 22:00 (CN) China to sell 1-year and 10-year Upsized Government Bond
• 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 12-Month Bills