HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisDon't Count Out Canada's Jobs Market

Don’t Count Out Canada’s Jobs Market

  • 35,000 jobs added in January, all full-time
  • Unemployment rate dipped to 5.5%
  • Goods sector employment rebounded after Q4/19 swoon

The blistering pace of hiring seen in Canada between late-2018 and mid-2019 has faded, but today’s data suggest the labour market is far from grinding to a halt. Job gains over the last six months averaged a healthy 20,000 and nearly all of that was full-time work. GDP growth toward the end of last year was downright ugly, though transitory factors were at play and the employment figures suggest underlying trends are better than the headline numbers indicate. A low unemployment rate—now just 0.1 percentage point above its cycle low—also goes against the BoC’s view that the economy is no longer close to full capacity, though a drop in the participation rate might be evidence of some spare workers. Today’s data reduce the urgency for the BoC to lower rates (market pricing for a cut pushed back from September to October) though we continue to think the door is open to a rate cut if the economy’s rebound early this year proves underwhelming.

RBC Financial Group
RBC Financial Grouphttp://www.rbc.com/
The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by the Economics Department of RBC Financial Group based on information from sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. This report is for the information of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities.

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