- Canada records 63,800 jobs in September
- US nonfarm payrolls posts a massive gain of 336,000
- Fed rate odds of a November hike rise sharply
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3705, almost unchanged. USD/CAD gained ground immediately after the nonfarm payroll report but has given up these gains.
The week ended with better-than-expected job growth in both Canada and the US. Canada’s economy created 63,800 jobs in September, up from 39,900 a month earlier and blowing past the forecast of 20,000. This marked an eight-month high, although the lion’s share of the increase was part-time jobs (47,900). The unemployment rate remained at 5.5%, just below the estimate of 5.6%. Wage growth ticked higher to 5.3%, up from 5.2% but shy of the estimate of 5.5%.
The US nonfarm payroll report was a barn-burner, with an increase of 336,000 in September. This follows an upwardly revised gain of 227,000 in August and crushed the forecast of 170,000. Wage growth remained at 0.2% m/m, below the forecast of 0.3 m/m, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, compared to the forecast of 3.7%.
The strong nonfarm payrolls has raised the odds of a quarter-point hike in November. Prior to the release, the odds of a quarter-point increase were 19%; this has jumped to 29% after the release, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The Canadian dollar is under pressure and has declined close to 1% in October. The economy posted negative growth in the second quarter and is in danger of another negative quarter in Q3. The Canadian dollar is also getting squeezed by falling oil prices, as oil is a major export for Canada. Crude oil prices slid about $5 on Wednesday, the biggest daily drop in over a year, and have fallen around 10% in October. Crude is under strong selling pressure over signs that demand is falling and concerns that interest rates will remain “higher for longer”. Today’s massive nonfarm payrolls gain will only exacerbate these concerns..
USD/CAD Technical
- USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.3806 and 1.3864
- 1.3695 and 1.3638 are the next support lines
