Oil prices continued to edge lower this morning following a triangle breakout which could lead to a potential $12 move to the downside.
IEA Oil Market Report – August 2025
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Wednesday that it expects oil supply to grow more this year but has reduced its forecast for demand because of weak fuel usage in major economies.
This comes a day after OPEC + released their monthly report yesterday. The OPEC + report saw the group raise its global oil demand forecast in a move that contradicts the IEA forecast today. Thesis is not a surprise as we have seen this diverging outlooks between the two organizations over the last few years.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated its oil market forecasts with several key highlights. Global oil supply is now expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, higher than the previous forecast of a 2.1 million bpd rise, following the latest production hike by OPEC+. In August, global crude oil refining is projected to reach nearly a record high of 85.6 million bpd.
However, the IEA has slightly lowered its demand growth forecasts. The average oil demand growth for 2026 has been revised down to 700,000 bpd from the earlier estimate of 720,000 bpd. Similarly, the 2025 oil demand growth forecast has been trimmed to 680,000 bpd, compared to the previous projection of 700,000 bpd.
Trump-Putin Meeting to Serve as a Catalyst?
The White House said Tuesday that Friday’s Alaska meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is meant to be a “listening session” for the president, lowering hopes for a quick Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement.
Market participants are already eyeing positive developments from the meeting but either way the meeting could be a catalyst for Oil prices.
Key challenges remain before the talks. Trump has suggested that both sides may need to give up land to end the three-and-a-half-year conflict. A resolution could ease some of the sanction concerns affecting the market. Meanwhile, oil prices have fallen, even though US inflation data yesterday strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
Looking Ahead
Oil prices are edging lower ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting which could dominate Oil price moves the rest of this week.
Risk-On sentiment has returned and yet Oil prices continue to struggle. Later in the day we will get another look at inventories data after API numbers were released yesterday.
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
Technical Analysis – WTI
From a technical analysis standpoint, Oil has broken below the triangle pattern and the 200-day MA resting around the 64.73 handle.
The breakout could lead to a long term drop toward the $52 a barrel mark based on the technical setup in play.
The RSI period-14 has yet to enter oversold territory, which hints that further downside could materialize in the days ahead.
Immediate support rests at 60.77 before the psychological 60.00 handle comes into focus.
Looking at the upside, resistance rests at 64.00 before the confluence level around the 64.73 handle comes into focus. Acceptance above this level, a move beyond the 65.00 handle could come into play.
WTI Oil Daily Chart, August 13, 2025
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
