Oil prices have risen as much as 1.17% at the start of the week following claims by Ukrainian forces that their recent drone attacks have hit two major Russian oil centers in the Baltic Sea.
According to reports, these strikes temporarily halted crude oil shipments at Primorsk, Russia’s biggest oil port, late last week. There are also claims that three pumping stations that send oil to another port, Ust-Luga, were also attacked.
Russia Sanction Calls Grow
Add to this growing calls for harsher sanctions on countries and entities which are still purchasing Russian Oil.
Pressure is increasing on Russia after a statement from the U.S. President. On Saturday, he said the U.S. is ready to place new sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. However, this would only happen if all NATO member countries agree to stop buying Russian oil and enforce similar actions.
Markets appear cautious in this regard and thus oil prices remain supported.
China Oil Demand Robust Despite Poor Industrial Production Data
Based on data from this morning, Chinese oil refiners processed almost 15 million barrels of crude oil per day in August. This is a 7.6% increase from the same time last year, thanks to a combination of strong oil imports and more oil being produced within China.
Additionally, the apparent demand for oil in China—the amount of oil being used—rose to 14.53 million barrels per day last month, which is a 4.9% increase compared to August of the previous year.
This comes as Chinese data off late have shown signs of deterioration which may be a concern moving forward. For now though, Oil demand and refining remains at impressive levels which will also support oil prices as it mitigates any fears around a demand slowdown for now.
Outlook Moving Forward
Despite the rally we are seeing today Oil prices upside potential may remain limited. The reason for this is largely down to growing expectations of a potential slowdown in global growth for the rest of the year.
OPEC + output hike has also added to the dilemma which is keeping Oil prices relatively rangebound.
Later in the week, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision could have a knock-on impact on oil prices as well. We will also get updated inventories data as markets brace for a potential inventory build-up in Q4 2025.
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
Technical Analysis – WTI
From a technical analysis standpoint, Oil is eyeing a move toward the 100-day MA which rests at 64.65.
Oil has failed to break above the 64.00 a barrel mark since September 4.
Any attempt to break above this level has been met with significant selling pressure.
However, a close around the current price would provide some hope for bulls, as it would be seen as a morningstar candlestick pattern which hints at further upside.
Any move will depend on developments around Russia/Ukraine which for the moment seems to be the major driving force of Oil price moves.
Immediate resistance rests at 64.00 before the psychological 65.00 mark and the 200-day MA at 67.15 come into focus.
Looking at support to the downside and the first point of interest will be the recent swing low at 62.19 before the 60.77 and psychological 60.00 handle come into focus.
WTI Oil Daily Chart, September 15, 2025
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
