The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index edged higher in November, rising to 99.0 from 98.2 in the previous month. Business uncertainty, meanwhile, increased modestly, with the uncertainty index rising by 3 points to 91— below the 12-month average of 94.
Of the ten subcomponents in the index, six rose during the month, one was unchanged, and three moved lower. Small businesses felt more pessimistic about the economy (-5 points) and future credit conditions (-2 points). Plans for capital outlays in the next six months also declined (-3 points). On the other hand, a greater share of businesses expected higher real sales (+9 points) and earnings (+2 points).
Labor market indicators showed a modest improvement on the month. The net share of businesses planning to increase employment rose by 4 points to 19%—the highest level since December 2024. However, actual hiring remained subdued, as the average change in employment per firm stayed negative for the sixth consecutive month. Meanwhile, the share of firms with unfilled job openings ticked up to 33% from 32% in the previous month, remaining within the range observed over the last five months and generally below its pre-pandemic average.
The net share of business owners raising average selling prices jumped by 13 points to 34%, marking the largest monthly increase in the survey’s history. Looking ahead, plans to raise prices in the next three months were unchanged. However, more businesses planned to raise workers’ compensation (+5 points to 24%).
Key Implications
Small business optimism remained relatively stable in November, despite notable improvement in the sales outlook. Labor market indicators have also shown modest progress. After taking a step back during the government shutdown, hiring intentions continued to move higher—a trend that has persisted since May—with more businesses planning to raise wages in the next three months. Still, job openings remain relatively low and have generally been on a downward trend since the start of the year, reinforcing the “low hire, low fire” theme.
Inflationary pressures intensified last month. While one month does not make a trend, the large jump in the share of businesses raising prices in November cannot be fully dismissed. Although inflation reports have been delayed by the government shutdown, prior data have shown that inflationary pressures were broadening across goods categories, and it looks like small businesses are more willing to pass those through to consumers.
