Wed, Jan 20, 2021 @ 23:23 GMT
Home Contributors Technical Analysis Market Morning Briefing: The Euro Has Crucial

Market Morning Briefing: The Euro Has Crucial

STOCKS

Overall indices look bullish except Shanghai and Dax which could see some sideways ranged movement.

Immediate support near 25600 seems to be holding for now. While Dow (25790.35, +0.52%) trades above 25750, the index looks bullish towards 26000+ levels.

Dax (12394.52, +0.23%) continues to trade sideways just now. As mentioned last week, there are equal chances of moving on either sides towards 12600-12700 or 12200 levels in the near term.

Nikkei (22795.64, +0.86%) has risen sharply and could continue to move up in the near term. Next 2-3 sessions could see a test of resistance near 22800-22850.

Shanghai (2749.74, +0.74%) is trading sideways and could remain in the 2750-2650 region for some more time. This week could see sideways range trade in the Shanghai composite index.

Nifty (11557.10, -0.22%) needs to sustain above 11600 to continue to move up targeting 11800 or higher. Else a fall to 11500-11400 could be seen in the near term.

COMMODITIES

Commodities have risen well and while that continues, look bullish for the near term.

Brent (75.72) has earlier resistance turned support at 75 and while that holds, Brent could attempt a rise towards 78.0-78.5 in the near term. Nymex WTI (68.57) also is likely to rise towards 72 or higher while above 68. Near term looks bullish for the next 2-3 sessions.

Gold (1211) has managed to rise above initial resistance near 1210. While the price sustains above 1210, it could slowly move up towards 1225-1230 in the coming sessions.

Copper (2.70) needs to rise above current levels to continue towards 2.85 on the upside. Failure to rise past current levels would again bring back 2.65-2.60 into the picture.

FOREX

Dollar strength might see a return this week as Euro looks like it might dip from 1.17, Yuan might not break below 6.80 and Dollar Yen might move up towards 112-113. Watch out for important levels on the Turkish Lira.

Dollar Index (95.05) has important support coming up in the 95.00-94.75 zone. While above this level, another rise beyond 96 in this week is possible.

Euro (1.1633) The Euro has crucial (and possibly strong) Resistance coming up just near 1.1675-1.1700. Above that, on the weekly candles, previous support trendline might also give some resistance near 1.175. While below these resistances, the Euro could again dip towards 1.155.

Dollar Yen (111.00): Dollar Yen broke above important resistance near 111 last week and is currently trading near the same level. While above 111, it could test resistance near 113 on weekly candles in the next 2-3 weeks. Hence this week might just see a slow upmove towards 112.

Euro Yen (129.14): Euro Yen has important resistance coming up near 130-131 which might cap its current upmove. A breach of 130-131 would be bullish and is currently less preferred.

Pound (1.2855) is trading close to resistance on daily line chart near 1.285. A decisive breach of 1.285 could even lead to an upmove towards higher resistance near 1.3050 in this week. The broader longer term trend is however expected to stay bearish in the weeks ahead.

Dollar Yuan (6.8215) has risen from support near 6.80. While above 6.80, it could again rise towards 6.89 in the next 1-2 sessions.

Turkish Lira (5.99): Imp levels to look out for would be 6.19-20 on the upside and 5.96 on the downside. A break on either side could trigger a signficant move in the respective direction. There is expectation of some volatility in the Lira this week – important to keep a watch on the above mentioned levels.

Dollar Rupee (69.91) : If immediate support @ 69.90-80 breaks, USDINR could fall to lower support @ 69.50-40.

INTEREST RATES

The US Fed Chairman’s comments in the Jackson Hole Conference on Friday has led some analysts to interpret that a December rate hike by the US Fed might get delayed to 2019. If this belief grows stronger in the markets, then the May high of 3.125% for the US 10 year yield would be confirmed as the year’s top.

Crucial levels to watch out remain the same as mentioned on Friday :

US 10 Year Yield (2.82%) : A break below 2.81%-2.80% would lead to a further decline towards 2.75%-2.74%. Chances for the same are increasing.

US 30 year (2.97%): A break below support near 2.98%-2.97% would be quite bearish.

German 10 year yield (0.34%): Could rise towards resistance near 0.4% on medium term chart (current preference is for 0.4% to not be breached – probably a gradual downtrend towards 0.18% could happen).

German-US 10Yr Spread (-2.49%) could rise towards -2.45% – this is a crucial resistance level for the spread, which if breached, could make the spread bullish in the medium term – current preference is for the resistance to not be breached.

The Japanese 30Yr (0.83%) : Crucial Resistance near 0.85% – should hold for now.

Kshitij Consultancy Servicehttp://www.kshitij.com
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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