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Crude Beating Its Own Records

The most interesting events are now taking place in the commodity market. The Brent crude continues making new highs for over a few years and is still downtrending. On Tue Sep 25, Brent is trading around $81.89 and is unlikely to stop there.

The energy commodities hype has a few reasons, one of them being the weak US dollar, which is logical, as the crude is a dollar denominated asset which rises when the greenback falls, and vice versa. Another reason are the results of the OPEC+ meeting last weekend, where the members and non-members talked the possibility of rising the oil production by 500k barrels per day, or even more, although no decisions have been taken, as OPEC+ decided to postpone this discussing to the next meeting that will take place in November.

Another important thing are the OPEC+ comments on continuing oil production regulation in case the inventories are too high, which helped the bulls a lot.

The most popular question in the markets now is how much higher crude oil may climb, with some saying $85 or even $100 is possible before the end of the year. The point is however that Brent crude has already added 20% to its value since early 2018, and reaching $100 will require the black gold to add 25% more, which is way too much, especially given the continuous growth over the last few weeks.

Meanwhile, the new ascending impulse broke out the significant highs and is now heading towards the new ones. The current trend is somewhat stable, as the price is moving inside a uniform channel. The impulse is approaching the upper major channel boundary at $82.20. After testing the resistance area, the price may pull back to the 50.00% Fibo retracement at $80.20. A correctional downtrend is going to start while the short term ascending channel line gets broken out near $81.25. The correction targets are at $80.66 and $80.20, while afterwards the price may start rising towards new highs.

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