The EUR/USD needs to break above the resistance trend line (red) to confirm (green check) a bullish breakout, which is likely aim at the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 vs 1+3 and the next resistance (red). A break below the 61.8% Fibonacci of wave 4 vs 3 makes the wave 4 (green) pattern less likely (red x) and could send price lower (dotted orange) to the next Fib levels of wave 2 vs 1 (78.6%).

The EUR/USD seems to have completed a bearish ABC (orange) correction within wave 4 (green). The bullish bounce could indicate a potential wave 1 (orange) and the current pullback could still be part of a wave 2 (orange) as long as the price action remains above the 100% Fibonacci level. A break below that 100% Fib invalidates (red x) the wave 1-2 whereas a bullish breakout confirms it (green check).

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