EUR/JPY broke below September 3, 2019 low (115.86) and pair now shows a lower low sequence from February 2018 high and January 2020 high as the video below explains. Near term, decline from April 7, 2020 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Down from April 7, wave (i) ended at 117.89 and wave (ii) bounce ended at 119. Pair then resumes lower in wave (iii) towards 116.73 and bounce in wave (iv) ended at 117.26. Pair then extends lower in wave (v) towards 116.17 which also ended wave ((i)) in larger degree.
Bounce in wave ((ii)) is proposed complete at 117.2 as a zigzag. Wave (a) ended at 117.16, wave (b) ended at 116.64, and wave (c) of ((ii)) ended at 117.2. From there, pair has resumed lower in wave ((iii)). Down from 117.2, wave (i) ended at 115.7 and bounce in wave (ii) ended at 116.82. Near term, while bounce fails below 117.2, and more importantly below 119.03, expect pair to extend lower. We expect any rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside in the pair. Potential target lower is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from January 16, 2020 high which comes at 112.7 – 114.3.
EUR/JPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
