EURCHF has pushed back below the converged simple moving averages (SMAs), erasing most of the recent gains from the multi-year low of 1.0504, which failed to exceed the 1.0610 obstacle. The pair, currently capped by the 100-period SMA at 1.0538, is trailing the lower Bollinger band as it inches towards the strengthened bottom in the proximity of the 1.0500 handle.
Looking to the short-term oscillators, the MACD, in the negative region, is descending below its red trigger line promoting the negative move. However, the RSI and stochastics, warn of a possible upside correction as the stochastic lines have broken above the 20 oversold mark, and the RSI is rising from the 30 threshold.
Should sellers manage to push past the lower Bollinger band, immediate constrictions could originate from the tough 1.0511 to 1.0504 section of lows, already forming a bottom to the long-term bearish picture. Diving below this key trench, the 1.0455 barrier could draw traders’ attention ahead of the 1.0424 low from July of 2015.
If the footing that buyers have recently acquired manages to send the price higher, they may face an initial resistance region developed from the 100-period SMA of 1.0538 to the 200-period SMAs at 1.0554 – which also encapsulates the mid-Bollinger band and the 50-period SMA. Overrunning these barriers, the 1.0573 level and swing high of 1.0584 – coupled with the upper Bollinger band may test the climb, prior to the 1.0598 and 1.0610 peaks.
The short-term bias remains neutral-to-bearish below 1.0652, while a close either below 1.0504 or above 1.0621 could see a boost in a direction. Yet, only a shift above 1.0709 could inject confidence to return a bullish tendency.
