The Euro is consolidating after Wednesday’s 0.77% fall, with pullback from new multi-month high (1.1965) so far looking like healthy correction, but risk of further easing remains in play. Dovish Fed on Wednesday soured risk sentiment that added pressure on single currency as investors started to take profits ahead of psychological 1.20 barrier. Wednesday’s dip found footstep at 1.1830 (50% retracement of Aug 1.1695/1.1965 advance) just ahead of other strong levels at 1.1822/19 (broken Fibo 61.8% of 1.2555/1.0635 descend/10DMA), with ability to base here and bounce back above 1.1900, needed to generate initial signal that corrective phase may be over. Rising bullish momentum on daily chart supports scenario. On the other side, Wednesday’s bearish engulfing, south-heading stochastic and converging 10/20DMA’s in attempt to form bear-cross, warn of deeper pullback. If today’s action closes below 1.1830/19 zone, this will be initial signal of further, which would look for confirmation on break below 1.1798 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1695/1.1965). Higher base at 1.1700 zone remains key support and holding above here would keep bullish bias, while break would signal more significant correction and risk drop towards strong technical support at 1.1457 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0635/1.1965 rally).
Res: 1.1868, 1.1902, 1.1965, 1.2000
Sup: 1.1830, 1.1819, 1.1800, 1.1711
