EURUSD attempted to break the upper border of the neutral zone it has been ranging within the last week, but its efforts proved unsuccessful as the 40-period simple moving average (SMA) defended the bears once again around 1.1850.
The short-term oscillators are suggesting mixed signals as the RSI is hitting the 50 level, though, the MACD is gaining ground and is approaching the zero level.
Hence, the short-run risk is looking neutral-to-positive now and another retest of the 1.1850 – 1.1880 resistance area is likely. Particularly, a decisive close above the 1.1880 barrier might be what the bulls are eagerly waiting for to rally towards the 27-month high of 1.1965 registered on August 18.
To the downside, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from 1.1184 to 1.1965 at 1.1780 may add some footing to the market but a violation at this point may not attract much attention unless the price slumps below the 1.1753 support, meeting the 200-period SMA at 1.1705. Negative momentum could further strengthen if the 1.1695 barrier is breached as well, with the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.1668 likely appearing next in the radar.
In brief, EURUSD could trade neutral-to-positive in the short-term. A closure above 1.1965 could bring fresh buying pressure in the market, while a drop below the 200-day SMA at 1.1705 could raise selling interest.
