Short term Elliott wave view in USDJPY suggests that the pair is currently pulling back to correct cycle from January 6, 2021 low. From the high on March 31, 2021 peak, the pullback is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from March 31 peak, wave ((w)) ended at 109.93 and wave ((x)) rally ended at 110.55. Pair then resumed lower in wave ((y)) towards 108.97 which completed wave W. Bounce in wave X ended at 109.97 with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((a)) of X ended at 109.39, wave ((b)) of X ended at 109.18, and wave ((c)) of X ended at 109.96.
Pair has resumed lower in wave Y as another double three in lesser degree. Down from wave X at 109.96, wave (w) ended at 109.21, wave (x) ended at 109.75, and wave (y) ended at 108.72. This completes wave ((w)) of Y. Short term, wave ((x)) rally is expected to fail while below 109.96 for further downside. Possible target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from March 31 peak at 106.7 – 108. As far as pivot at 109.96 high stays intact, expect short term rally to fail in 3, 7 or 11 swing for further downside.
USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
