The Euro is holding within narrow range on Monday, limited by daily Tenkan-sen (1.1905) at the upside and Kijun-sen (1.1866) which holds the downside. The pair remains heavy following Friday’s close in red after the dollar fell on downbeat jobs data but regained strength after better than expected US Manufacturing data which improved the tone. Friday’s bearish candle with long upper shadow weighs on near-term action which would extend weakness on violation of Tenkan-sen support towards 1.1822 pivot (20SMA/4-hr cloud base) as rising 4-hr cloud underpins today’s action so far. Overall structure is bullish, with current pullback seen as correction before renewed attempt above 1.2000 barrier. ECB policy meeting on Thursday is the key event for Euro as traders expect to hear more from Mario Draghi about ECB’s QE program tapering. The pair may stay in a choppy trading until then, waiting for clearer signals from the ECB. Extended dips should be contained by 20SMA to keep bulls intact, while break lower will be seen as bearish signal for deeper correction.
Res: 1.1905, 1.1946, 1.1979, 1.2000
Sup: 1.1866, 1.1822, 1.1807, 1.1740