The Euro maintained slight bullish tone in recent session, posting series of marginally higher highs and higher lows, underpinned by rising 10SMA but the action stayed capped by daily Tenkan-sen. Daily studies are bullish and favor further upside, with markets awaiting today’s ECB policy meeting and comments from President Draghi for stronger signals. The ECB is expected to start laying groundwork for start of winding down stimulus program, but Draghi would likely hold off any major commitment in order not to trigger stronger volatility in the market. The central bank is facing a dilemma whether to extend bond-buying program or to start reducing it as economic growth in EU is the strongest in past ten years but inflation remains stubbornly low and holding well below central bank’s target. Likely scenario is for Draghi to give initial signals of the future steps regarding QE program and leave stronger action for central bank’s meetings in October and December. The Euro is expected to receive support if Draghi’s comments today hint action regarding QE program tapering. The pair may probe above 1.2000 and retest recent peak at 1.2070 on bullish signal, with stronger acceleration higher to signal resumption of larger uptrend from 2017 low at 1.0340 towards next target at 1.2166. If Draghi disappoints markets today, the Euro may fall through pivots at 1.1866 (Kijun-sen) and 1.1822 (31 Aug trough) and risk test of daily cloud top at 1.1695.
Res: 1.1950, 1.1979, 1.2000, 1.2070
Sup: 1.1914, 1.1866, 1.1822, 1.1773
