EURUSD is retreating from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward wave from 1.1908 to 1.1185 at 1.1355. The price is currently testing the Ichimoku cloud and is moving towards the flat 40- and 20-period simple moving averages (SMAs). The RSI posted a descending move in the positive territory, while the MACD oscillator is moving with weak momentum above its trigger and zero lines.
If the pair continues the decline, immediate support could come from the 40- and then the 20-period SMAs at 1.1303 and 1.1295 respectively, ahead of the 1.1233 low. Below these obstacles, the bears could open the way for revisiting the 17-month low of 1.1185.
In the positive scenario, a rebound off the Ichimoku cloud could lead the market until the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.1355 again, while steeper increases may retest the 1.1385 barrier, taken from the peak of November 30. Even stronger upside pressures could push the market towards the 200-period SMA at 1.1415.
All in all, EURUSD has been in a neutral phase in the short-term as it has failed to post a clear directional move over the last two weeks. A break beyond the 200-period SMA would shift the outlook to bullish, while any declines below the 17-month low of 1.1185 would endorse the long-term bearish view.
