NZDUSD posted a fresh four-month high at 0.6973 today, but the bulls have yet to successfully breach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 0.7220 to 0.6524 at 0.6950.
The MACD oscillator is strengthening its momentum above its trigger and zero lines, whereas the RSI indicator is sloping slightly down around the 70 level. In trend indicators, the price is holding above the strong 200-day simple moving average (SMA), and the short-term SMAs are moving higher as well.
If the pair overcomes successfully the recent high, it could move towards the 0.7080 resistance taken from the peaks in November 2021. Stepping higher, the price could make a pause between the 0.7175 barrier and the top from October 2021 at 0.7220.
On the other hand, a drop below the 61.8% Fibonacci at 0.6950 could open the door for the 200-day SMA at 0.6910. The 50.0% Fibonacci of 0.6870 could be the next stop, while sharper declines could meet the short-term uptrend line around the 0.6810 support and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.6790.
All in all, NZDUSD has been in an ascending movement since January 28, creating higher highs and higher lows. A slide below the rising trendline could switch the short-term bias to negative, shifting attention back to the medium-term downtrend.