USDJPY has recorded a 20-year high of 129.40 within the 129.00-129.57 resistance area, shaped by the highs from the first half of May 2002 and the latter being the inside swing low from mid-April 2002. Currently, the pair is exhibiting a pause in its near two-month rally from 114.40 but the climbing simple moving averages (SMAs) continue to sponsor the sturdy bullish trend.
Furthermore, the rising Ichimoku lines are endorsing persisting upside forces, while the short-term oscillators are reflecting the fresh snag in the uptrend of the pair. The MACD, far north of the zero mark, is holding firm above its red trigger line, reflecting no weakness in positive momentum. However, the dip in the RSI and the %K line in their respective overbought territories, is hinting that the ascent is struggling a tad, but they have yet to confirm that bullish drive is clearly fading.
For additional positive developments to unfold, the pair would need to overcome the immediate 129.00-129.57 resistance band that extends back to mid-April 2002, and simultaneously its newly plotted intraday high of 20 years. Reviving the uptrend, the bulls could then jump for the 130.71 barrier and the 132.41 high, both recorded in April of 2002.
Otherwise, if positive pressures remain frail, and the 129.00-129.57 deterrent drives the price down, hardened congested support barricades could arise at the 126.38-126.83 zone and at the 125.10-125.98 region. The former stretches back to inside swing lows over the March until May period of 2002, while the latter’s outer frontiers encapsulate multiple rally peaks over June 2002 until August 2015. The latter is also reinforced by the 125.88 level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 114.40-129.40 rally. In the event the price corrects below these critical support borders, the bears may then dive for the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibos of 123.67 and 121.90 before challenging the March low of 121.27.
Summarizing, USDJPY is sustaining a bullish bias above the soaring Ichimoku lines, the 125.10 barrier and the 121.27 trough. That said, for negative tendencies to gain a greater advantage, the price would need to sink beneath the 126.38-126.83 and the 125.10-125.98 support borders.
