STOCKS
Dow (22661.64, +0.09%) is trading higher. 22750 is the immediate target for the next few sessions.
Need to keep a close watch if Dax (12970.52, +0.53%) faces any rejection at 13000 or breaks higher to make fresh highs targeting 13250 in the near term. Looking at the upward momentum, the index looks bullish.
Shanghai (3348.94, +0.28%) could attempt a rise towards 3360-3375 in the near term. Overall the index may trade within 3375-3330 this week.
Nikkei (20629.02, +0.01%) could pause near 20700-20750 just now unless the Dollar Yen and the US-Japan 10Yr differential surges sharply to force Nikkei to rise towards crucial resistance of 21000. A rejection from 20750 is preferred in the coming sessions to levels near 20500-20400 levels. But in case the index breaks above 20750, the next target on the upside would be 21000.
Nifty (9914.90, +0.56%) could come off today to levels near 9800. Note immediate resistance near 9970-9950 levels may hold just now, pushing the index back towards 9800 or even lower.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1274.28) could be stuck in the 1260-1280 region this week and some consolidative phase is possible over the early sessions of next week too. Thereafter the price may start to rise above 1280 while decent support near 1260 holds.
Silver (16.59) attempted a rise towards 17 yesterday but came off sharply to close lower. 16.75 could possibly hold on the upside and push the index below 16.50 in the near term.
Brent (55.91) could try to rise towards 56.65 in the next few sessions before again resuming the fall towards 55 later on. WTI (49.99) on the other hand has some scope of falling towards 49.50 or even lower in the near term.
Copper (2.9650) is almost stable in the 2.90-3.00 region as mentioned yesterday. A break on either side is needed to get some clarity on further course of direction.
FOREX
Sideways consolidation in Dollar-Yen (112.75) below 113.00-50 over the last couple of days. Need to see if it tops out below 113 now over the next few days or breaks past it. The Euro-Yen (132.56) continues to look bullish overall with Support at 132.00.
Understandable consolidation happening in Euro (1.1758) as well, caught between short-term bearishness towards 1.16 and longer term bullishness while above 1.16. Note, though, that 1.16 is a super-crucial Support, dividing the bullish/ bearish regions. This corresponds with Resistance near 94.50 on the Dollar Index.
Slight dip in the Pound (1.3237) within current bearishness that targets 1.3200-3150 at least. The Aussie (0.7830) has also dipped a bit but has Support at 0.7800-7780, as mentioned yesterday.
Dollar-Rupee fell to 65.01 after the RBI policy yesterday and might dip to 64.90-80 today. That said, we also note that the market is a little Oversold in the near term.
INTEREST RATES
RBI kept the Repo Rate (6%) and CRR (4%) unchanged yesterday while lowering SLR from 20% to 19.5%. The 10Yr GOI yield rose from 6.65% to 6.70%, a sharp surge after the RBI policy rate yesterday. The yield could move up to test 6.75% in the near term before coming off in the longer run.
The RBI has also suggested that lending rates, especially to retail customers, should be tied to some external benchmark, in order to better transmit interest rate changes to the market.
The US yields are almost stable and are vulnerable to a slight fall in the coming sessions.
Also keep a close watch at the US-Japanand the German-US 10YR differentials which could provide some important cues for Euro and Dollar Yen movements in the near term.
