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Which One is a Real Safe Haven Now?

Gold prices dipped as investors took profits following a near one-month high, but still recorded their biggest weekly gain since April on expectations of a pause in U.S. interest rate hikes. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,954.69 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures eased 0.2% to $1,959.30. The dollar index edged up 0.2% but remained close to its lowest level since April 2022. Analysts suggest that gold has room to expand further, with potential key levels at $1,985 to $2,000. While the outlook for gold remains positive, there may be some profit-taking at current levels. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expressed a preference for more rate hikes this year, but markets have mostly priced in one rate hike at the Fed’s upcoming meeting. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. In terms of technical levels, support is seen at around $1,940, while resistance is expected in the $1,970-75 region. Stay tuned for further market developments!

US Dollar – W1 Timeframe

The reason we are looking at the chart for the US Dollar is that the two major commodities we will consider as alternative stores of value are both correlated to the US Dollar. Bitcoin and Gold are two commodities that reflect the sentiments of two separate generations as pertains to investing and wealth management. From the charts, we see the likelihood of bullish price action from the demand zone owing to the fact that the zone is also supported by a trendline.

Analyst’s Expectations:

  • Direction: Bullish
  • Target: 104.510
  • Invalidation: 97.597

BTCUSD – W1 Timeframe

BTCUSD on the weekly timeframe is at a key decision zone. As I said earlier, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies represent the investment sentiments of the majority of young, tech-savvy investors who may not necessarily be inclined to invest in Bitcoin as an immediate store of value, but rather as a means of exchange. However, there are a few commercial investors that are very big on cryptocurrencies at the moment, which may spell greater adoption and stronger prices for the chief of cryptos.

Analyst’s Expectations:

  • Direction: Bearish
  • Target: 28341.74
  • Invalidation: 32500.69

XAUUSD – D1 Timeframe

Gold on the daily timeframe presents us with a price action that is quite indicative of bearish intent. We can clearly see the supply zone and the fact that it intertwines perfectly with the 50 and 100 moving averages as likely areas of resistance. Comparing the price action on the US Dollar with this, I can conclude that bullish strength on the Dollar is certainly going to hasten the bearish price action on XAUUSD (Gold).

Analyst’s Expectations:

  • Direction: Bearish
  • Target: 1886.78
  • Invalidation: 1975.20


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