HomeContributorsTechnical AnalysisMarket Morning Briefing: The Aussie Has Medium Term Support At 0.7785

Market Morning Briefing: The Aussie Has Medium Term Support At 0.7785


Dow (23273.96, -0.23%) saw its first dip of about 95 points since its rally from levels near 22288 seen on 28th Sep’17. In case the correction continues, we could see the current dip extend towards 23200-23000 in the near term.

Dax (13003.14, +0.09%) continues to remain in the 1310-12900 region and is expected to trade in the said region for a few more sessions.

Shanghai (3383.52, +0.08%) could face a small rejection from 3385 and could come off towards 3360 in the near term before bouncing back again towards 3400. Range-bound movement expected in the coming sessions.

Nikkei (21733.10, +0.17%) has tried to move up slightly. Immediate target of 21800-21900 remains intact on the upside for now. A small dip from 21800/900 is possible before the index tries to move higher in the medium term.

Nifty (10184.85, +0.38%) is almost stable within 10250-10100 region and could remain so for some more days. Near term could see some sideways consolidation before deciding on further direction.


Gold (1282.52) is trading near immediate support on the daily candles and while that holds, the price could bounce back towards 1300-1310 in the near term. Only a break below 1275, if seen could take it lower to 1260.

Silver (17.11) has some scope of coming down towards 16.80-16.50 in the coming sessions, before bouncing back towards 17.00 and higher. While some room is visible on the downside, near term could be bearish.

Brent (57.49) has immediate support near 57.00-56.65 levels which is likely to hold in the medium term, taking the index to higher levels of 59.00 or even 60.00 in the coming sessions. Note that on a longer term, 61 is a crucial resistance and could eventually push the index to lower levels in the longer term. For now, we prefer a bounce from 56.65 to levels near 59-60.

WTI (52.00) could trade in the 51-53 region in the coming sessions. While immediate support near 51 holds, a rise above 53 is a possible situation for the medium term.

Copper (3.2245) has risen again today and is trading fairly on the upside. Resistance on the 3-day candles look strong just now and while that holds, medium term looks bearish towards 3.10-3.05.


The crucial Support at 1.1730-00 on the Euro (1.1760) is holding well enough so far even though the German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.94%) trades a little lower than yesterday’s -1.93%.

Looking at the medium term (see Interest Rates below), there should be decent chances of an upmove in the German-US 10Yr Spread and therefore in the Euro.

Dollar-Yen (113.35) rose to 114.07, but has come off from there, perhaps endorsing strength of long-term Resistance at 114.50. The Euro-Yen (133.37) has come off a bit alongwith Dollar-Yen and the dip in the Euro, but has good Support near 132.75-50 now.

The Pound (1.3220) trades stronger than yesterday, but still has another important Resistance overhead at 1.3250, which could still push it down.

The Aussie (0.7823) has medium term Support at 0.7785 and may try to mount a rally towards 0.79+ while the Support holds. The overall shape of the Aussie chart resembles the Euro chart.

Dollar-Yuan trades near 6.6298. Dollar-Rupee (65.0225) may test important Support in the 64.95-90 region today.


The German 10Yr (0.43%) trades 1bp lower than yesterday’s 0.44%, but should have Support at 0.40%, with upside open up to 0.70%.

On the other hand, the US 10Yr (2.37%) has immediate Resistance at 2.40% and further Resistance at 2.50%. Similarly, long-term Resistance is seen near 0.08-09% on the 10Yr JGB. Even the UK 10Yr Gilt (1.31%) has Resistance just overhead.

The US Yield Curve (30-10 Spread 0.52%, 30-5 Spread 0.89%) has steepened a wee bit more than yesterday. Some more upside towards 0,54% and 0.92% seems possible.

The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (4.4186%) is trading below important Resistance at 4.45%.

Kshitij Consultancy Service
Kshitij Consultancy Servicehttp://www.kshitij.com
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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