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Gold Not Out of the Woods Yet

  • Gold below key barriers ahead of next week’s FOMC policy announcement
  • Technical signals cannot promise a meaningful rally

Gold has been in a tight range within the 2,016-2,030 region so far this week, struggling to find enough buyers to close successfully above its exponential moving averages (EMAs) on the four-hour chart and the broken support trendline from November.

The technical indicators point to a neutral-to-bullish bias, with the RSI maintaining a sideways trajectory above its 50 neutral mark and the MACD set to enter the positive region. That said, the current consolidation phase seems to be developing within a monthly bearish channel, which could also halt any potential bullish extensions near 2,040.

A successful close above 2,040 is required for a fast rally towards the 2,065 constraining zone. Even higher, the price could re-challenge December’s important 2,079-2,087 territory ahead of the 2,100 psychological mark. Should the bulls claim the latter, the spotlight will fall again to the record high of 2,144.

If the precious metal slides below the 2,016 support area instead, a new bearish wave could start towards the channel’s lower boundary seen at 1,990. Additional losses from there could retest December’s floor around 1,976.

Summing up, gold could remain exposed to downside risks unless it closes clearly above the bearish channel and the 2,040 level.

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