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XAUUSD: Bears Prepare To Takeover

On Friday, the gold price (XAUUSD) retreated from a recent two-week high, facing selling pressure. This decline was driven by hawkish minutes from the FOMC meeting, indicating the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates. Elevated US Treasury bond yields, supported by a “higher-for-longer” narrative, further weakened demand for gold, as investors favored yield-bearing assets. However, the US dollar struggled to gain momentum, staying near three-week lows, potentially supporting gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Moving forward, market attention will focus on US bond yields and USD dynamics, with short-term opportunities in XAUUSD influenced by broader risk sentiment.

XAUUSD – D1 Timeframe

Price action on the daily timeframe of XAUUSD shows price currently reacting from the rally-base-drop supply zone, albeit in a subtle manner. We also see that the previous low has been broken, which means that price can be said to have completed the retracement. The added confluence to this is the trendline resistance that price seems to also be reacting to at this time.

XAUUSD – H4 Timeframe

After reacting from the supply zone on the daily timeframe, here on the 4-hour chart of XAUUSD, we see that a change of character has already occurred from the recent break of structure. Following this, I expect to see a proper rejection from the trendline resistance and the Fibonacci retracement level. My target for this idea is the previous demand zone as shown on the chart.

Analyst’s Expectations:

  • Direction: Bearish
  • Target: $2,004.62
  • Invalidation: $2,044.96


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