As the 4-hour chart of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) shows, the index reached a new all-time high last week. However, the price action suggests that the current pace of growth may not last.
Last week’s strong labour market data triggered a significant bullish impulse. However, the upward momentum has been entirely retraced (as indicated by the arrows).
The tax cut bill signed on Friday, 4 July, by Trump — which is expected to lead to a significant increase in US government debt — contributed to a modest bullish gap at today’s market open. Yet, as trading progressed during the Asian session, the index declined.
This suggests that fundamental news, which could have served as bullish catalysts, are failing to generate sustainable upward movement — a bearish sign.
Further grounds for doubt regarding the index’s continued growth are provided by technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) chart, specifically:
→ a bearish divergence on the RSI indicator;
→ price proximity to the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which is considered resistance.
It is reasonable to suggest that the market may be overheated and that bullish momentum is waning. Consequently, a correction may be forming — potentially involving a test of the 22,100 level. This level acted as resistance from late 2024 until it was broken by strong bullish momentum in late June.
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